Final 2021-22 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment (with Dominator Rating)

Just in Time for the NFL Draft...

Hello all.  It's been a while since the last update but here is the final list of 2021-22 FBS receivers with their Dominator Rating and my own Return on Investment efficiency metric. 

First, the table below looks at Dominator Ratings of qualifying players (starting with the top 150 WR in terms of reception yards, I then exclude those more than one standard deviation below the group average of receptions).

• Dominator Rating, or "DR" measures a player’s percentage of team receiving yards plus percentage of team receiving touchdowns.  
• This concept was brought to the internet mainstream by the guys at Rotoviz.com.  
• They admit the Dominator moniker is not a promise the player will dominate at the next level, but an apt description of how the player dominated his college team's passing game.  
• A DR > 50% would suggest NFL superstar potential (top 10 draft pick) for a prospect, 40%-50% would suggest a player worthy of a top 20 pick, 35%-40% indicates late first round/early second, and so on.

Based on 2021-22 FBS stats provided by NCAA.com, here is the Top DR list based on my calculations:

 

Standard Deviation Color Code:  Purple >= 3 St Devs above the mean; Blue < 2 above; Green > 1; Yellow Bold < 1; Yellow =< 0; Orange < -1; Red < -2

You see a lot of household names in the top half  section of the table with Jameson Williams, Drake London, Calvin Austin III, Jahan Dotson, Tyquan Thornton and Treylon Burks which reflects above average Dominator Ratings.

While it is helpful to see how much "market share" a player receives, as an evaluator, it helps to understand how they players got there.  Return on Investment (ROI) attempts to help fine tune results to find overlooked prospects. 

In the table above, the original DR color coding is in place on the left while the Return on Investment components are on the right, color coded to ROI/Improvement.

The Z-Score for each of the following is calculated:

Tgt% = percentage of targets to team passing attempts

Rec% = percentage of receptions to team receptions

Yard%= percentage of yards to team total passing yards

Improvement attempts to show the improvement players gain based on the changes in Yard% over Rec% and Rec% over Tgt%.  

Notes:

• Of the highest DR players, Tolbert, Sorenson, Burks, Brownlee, Shakir and Flowers also had ROI > 1 standard deviation above the mean.  Solid.
• Players who have the biggest jump from DR to ROI were Singleton from FIU, Pierce from Vandy, Robinson, Jr from Northwestern, Gray from SMU and Bell from Purdue, all of whom will be available in this coming NFL Player Draft.  These are guys we would want to take a closer look at to see if there is something we are missing here in terms of the evaluation.
• Players with high DR falling the most in terms of ROI include Robinson and Phillips, both with DR of at least 35% but falling below average in terms of ROI.  What does this mean?
• In Robinson's case, he had a high percentage of his teams targets, reception and yards, but his efficiency in comparing yards to receptions and receptions to targets were all decreasing, naturally leading to negative ROI.  Here we would want to watch game footage to review the possibility the high DR may be a function of high volume which he will not get in the NFL.  Of course, the inefficiency here may be caused by the offensive coordinator's play calling but we won't be able to make a determination until we watch. But what can't be lost here is Robinson was responsible for a huge amount of the Kentucky passing attack regardless of the efficiency decline (lowest metric is at 2.44, so it may be reasonable to deem it nearly impossible to maintain a positive Improvement trend at those levels) and is a top flight prospect.
• In Philips' case it's a declining trend of metrics that are unfortunately not top tier like Robinson, with two of three components being below average.    Again, this isn't a "cut and dried" tool to just take the guys with the highest scores, so we have to take a closer look at what is driving this with Phillips who, by many accounts, is seen as a highly desirable prospect for the upcoming NFL Player Draft. 

Once again, ROI is a tool to screen out potential players who are sneakily efficient for value that may be overlooked due to numerous reasons each draft season.  The numbers make it pretty plain if the metric is "high" or "low" however, following up with game footage review to make sense of the numbers would be the best way to use this data. 

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Seventh Annual Draft Twitter Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects ballots are available!  Request your ballot today - responses are due by April 22, 2022!

If you can stomach the poor commentating, go back and check out The Trouble with Sam, my review of former NY Jets QB Sam Darnold's game play vs. the Chiefs two years ago that pinpointed why it was clear his time in NY had to come to an end. 

FBS Wide Receiver Efficiency Based on Return on Investment

 Back in Business

After a long "summer" off, we're back to give you a different kind of angle on college football and the NFL Draft.   There is no better way to get back on track than with an update on our exclusive "Return on Investment" (ROI)  efficiency measure for wide receivers.  

Briefly, ROI is a simple efficiency metric that screens out receiver volume to find players who do more with less and may be under the radar because they lack eye popping statistics.  ROI provides efficiency in context that allowed us to identify non-household name college football players like Kenny Golladay (NYG), Tim Patrick (DEN), Cedrick Wilson (DAL), Darnell Mooney (CHI) and many others who are now contributors in the NFL despite not being widely broadcast by the main sports outlets who get stuck on certain candidates.  Using ROI could help teams get solid players at great value.

Here are the Top 10 FBS receivers as of 11/10/21 in terms of ROI:

• BMI= Body Mass Index using height (inches) and weight (pounds). 
• ROI = Return on Investment metric which represents receivers additional output vs. the average of the Top 150 receivers to the season to date in terms of yards. 
• ROI Z-Score = Number of standard deviations from the mean (anything greater than 1 is above average). 
• Dominator Rating = Classic WR evaluation metric that is based on volume and does not necessarily provide context as to what the player does with their opportunities.
• Dominator Rating Z-Score= Yellow highlight indicates below average Z-Score.  This player would fly under the radar as their Dominator Rating was not high enough to get picked up.  ROI indicates these players are highly efficient and the low DOM indicates they are likely being under utilized. 

Qualifying number of receptions for the table above is 31 at this point in the season. 

Will be back next week with an update and FCS ROI numbers as well. 

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If this was interesting check out my last article taking a look at this look at NFL QBs using ESPN NextGen stats.

A Look at ESPN's NextGen Quarterback Expected Completion Percentage Stats for the 2020 NFL Season

 Plus or Minus?

Looking at the 2020 ESPN NextGen stats for quarterbacks and found it very interesting. 

Of the various stats, here are the ones relevant to this piece:

• Completion Probability

The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more (they don't tell us what the "and more" is since they want to keep this proprietary).

• Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP)

 Using a passer’s Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer’s completion percentage is expected to be.

• Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+/-) 

 A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.

When we take a look at the difference between the COMP%Z minus xCOMP%Z  give us the Contribution for each QB.

So what does this mean?  Let's take a look at the quarterbacks in each division based on Contribution:

Z- Score Key

Blue = Greater than 2 Standard Deviations above the Mean. 

Yellow =  Within 1 Standard Deviation above the Mean.

Green = Greater than 1 and less than 2 Standard Deviations above the Mean.

Orange = Greater than 1 Standard Deviation below the Mean.

Red = Greater than 1 and less than 2 Standard Deviations below the Mean.

Black = Greater than 2 Standard Deviations below the Mean. 

 

Let's take Josh Allen as an example.  

• His expected completion % (xCOMP%) was 64.6% which was just below average (evidenced by his xComp%Z score).
• But compared to his actual performance (COMP%), his Completion Performance Above Expectation was 4.6% putting him at the top of the AFC East.
• His Contribution (COMP%Z - XCOMP%Z) is above average and one of the top in the league.

Comments:

• AFC East
• Cam Newton came into NE with no off-season, battled COVID and as a result he couldn't capitalize on the superb opportunities Belichick and company provided him resulting in a division worst -1.07 Contribution rating.  We'll see if he gets it on track in 2021 with a year under his belt as a Patriot.
• Despite having the worst xCOMP% in the division, Joe Flacco's Contribution was a bit better than expected when he backed up an injured Sam Darnold who fared worse than Joe.
• AFC North 
• Joe Burrow was something special turning nothing into something, taking a worse than 1 Standard Deviation xCOMP Z and sneaking it just above average to have the highest Contribution in the division.
• Lamar Jackson did not exceed his expectations and has a negative Contribution which is interesting as BAL is likely working on a contract extension.
• AFC South
• There was no question Deshaun Watson was the best QB in the division but Gardner Minshew and Ryan Tannehill both overcame whatever obstacles faced them to have above average Contribution performance in 2020. 
• Mike Glennon replaced  Minshew in JAX but the former had positive Contribution to the passing game where the latter did not. 
• AFC West
• Looking at Drew Lock's performance last year in terms of Contribution, the fact that DEN passed on drafting a QB in 2021 may come back to haunt them.
• Much maligned Derek Carr continues to perform with division leading Contribution beating out Super Bowl QB Pat Mahomes. 
• NFC East 
• This division saw the most QBs taking significant snaps.  But seeing how only two had positive Contribution (Dak Prescott in an injury shortened season and Jalen Hurts), it's no surprise teams could not settle on a signal caller.
• Dwayne Haskins had the third highest xCOMP% but ended up with the absolute worst Contribution of -2.24 for the entire league.  That is a talent unto itself!
• NFC North
• As much as everyone loves to dump on Kurt Cousins, he made the most of his situation with greater positive Contribution to the Vikings passing game than former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.
• Matthew Stafford has a new opportunity in Los Angeles but his performance last year was not quite what you would want with negative Contribution.
• NFC South
• My man Teddy Bridgewater can't get a break.  He is second in the NFC South to Tom Brady by percentage points in terms of Contribution (and leads the division in +/-) and goes on to get run out of town.  For the second time in his career.  By the same guy.  The horror.
• Not sure you can say Drew Brees was "last" in the division when he has second highest COMP% in the league but it is what it is when compared to Sean Payton's playcalling.  His gold jacket awaits. 
• NFC West
• Jimmy Garoppolo had the table set for him with an xCOMP% of 70.7% on his passes - everything must have been perfect in terms of success factors.  But, he couldn't convert on enough of these lay ups and his Contribution of -1.59 is pretty much the reason Trey Lance was selected #3 overall. 
• Looking at Garappolo's backup, Nick Mullens, he didn't fare very much better with Contribution of -1.16.
• Despite his comments about his Offensive Line, Russell Wilson was top of his division in terms of +/- and Contribution.  Now that SEA has picked up Center Shane Waldron and Guard Gabe Jackson in free agency, plus potential sleeper OL stone Forsythe in the draft, the rest of the NFC West may have a real problem. 

ESPN NextGen has a lot of interesting features I'm sure many of you would love to explore.  

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Don't Stop Now, You Quitter!  Other Posts To Read

The Fifth Annual All-DraftTwitter Top 100 NFL Prospects List!

Some of Twitter's most opinionated evaluators come together for the annual aggregated list of prospects for the 2021 NFL draft.  Check it out and see if you agree with our composite list!

Is Your Team Screwed in the 2021 NFL Draft? - The annual Supply and Demand analysis for the draft looks at which teams have the draft capital to meet their  positional "needs" and which teams will be scrambling to find talent.  This series is updated at the end of each draft day so don't forget to check back before Day 2 and Day 3!

College Football Wide Receiver Return on Investment for NFL Draft 2021 - Taking our annual look at how this year's crop of college receivers compare when  Dominator Rating is compared to my own Return on Investment metric.  

Fourth Annual Who's Screwed NFL Supply and Demand Analysis for 2021 - End of Day 2

 Heading Into Day 3...Who's Screwed?

With Day 2 in the books there was a lot of movement in Supply of player prospects and the Demand for them from talent hungry NFL teams.  Also a big factor was the priority of need for each position is different for each team.  So how does Day 3 look for your favorite team?

For those of you new to this exercise, if you find yourself confused go back to the Pre-Draft article here which provides a solid overview of the concepts discussed here.

Supply and Demand Table

Shortage/Surplus

• Well...bye... - The supply of QB and TE based on the top 160 NFL.com prospects had run out despite there still being demand for those positions.
• Coming Up Short- Positions with shortages are CB, LB and S.
• Extra, Extra - The positions with surplus availability are RB, OL and WR. 
• Stuck in the Middle - DL has enough for everyone. 

Avg Need (Priority)

• Big Uglies - When it comes to priority, OL has the highest average scoring 4.00 (out of 5)
• No Respect - Many fans don't value the RB position and now it seems teams don't given their Avg Need is only 1.50 (out of 5). Pobrecitos!
• Not So Safe - Despite being a shortage position, S is a low priority need at 2.18 avg.

Criticality

• No Sweat - If you need a RB, S or WR, no problem.  At this point there are either so many that you will get one in the Top 160 or the need for the position is not really a priority.
• Moving Fast -  If you need an other position, you need to get it fast since supplies and running low and competition is high starting with CBs who are the positions with the lowest criticality making them the most urgent position.

So...who's screwed?  Glad you asked.

The table above is descending from worst position to best.

• Over - At the bottom of the table above are TB and MIN, both of whom have no Critical Positions left to draft...for now.  Of course, based on how the draft picks fall there could be a shift but for now, they can relax as they have completed their Critical Positions shopping. 
• And Out - BUF and LVR still have Critical Positions open but, barring a trade up, they won't have any remaining Top 160 picks left and won't be filling those needs from the first 160 draftees, which is the whole point of this exercise.  
• Vegas only has 1 low priority position unfilled so that's not an issue.
• BUF has  it's second and third highest priority position unfilled so their War Room team had better be good at this drafting stuff. 
• Safe: Teams with Critical Coverage of at least 0% have enough draft capital to pick up all their Critical Positions with the draft capital they have remaining through pick 160.
• Screwed:  These teams have more Critical Positions needed then draft capital at pick 160 or better:
• One Pick Short 
• ARI
• CHI
• DEN
• GB
• NE
• NYG
• SF
• WAS
• Two Picks Short
• HOU
• IND
• KC
• Three Picks Short
• SEA

Here is the same list sorted Alphabetically:

Of course, as the Critical Positions can shift based on the way the picks fall. 

An entire wrap up of the draft looking at how teams did or did not fill their Critical Positions will be posted after the draft. 

Enjoy Day 3!

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The Fifth Annual All-DraftTwitter Top 100 NFL Prospects List!

Some of Twitter's most opinionated evaluators come together for the annual aggregated list of prospects for the 2021 NFL draft.  Check it out and see if you agree with our composite list!

NFL Draft 2021 - Who's Screwed Day 2 Update

 Supply and Demand Updated Numbers

OK, it was an exciting Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft so let's jump right into how the opening round of the draft impacted Player Supply and Team Demand when it comes to priority position needs. 

If it's your first time here and you find yourself confused go back to the Pre-Draft article here which provides a solid overview of the concepts discussed here.

• No major changes in Shortage/Surplus Z over Day 1.
• Avg Priority (based on position needs for that team) saw QB improve dramatically as all the teams with high priority need at the QB position got those needs filled.   
• The biggest Criticality move was in QB, as expected with the top 5 candidates being selected in Round 1.
• There are still a ton of RBs available with no real demand.  Will be interesting to see how that will play out.    

Here is the updated table breaking out Critical items (excess picks to meet Critical Positions needed) and Criticality measures which tries to present the urgent need for a position based on weighted priority along with supply and demand.  

Looking Good

1. MIA - While they have a need at the high Criticality OL position,  their Critical Coverage is 250% and they have the 4th pick of Round 2.  They remain in the best position to cover their needs.
2. HOU - Yes, Houston.  Something finally goes right for the team with no first pick until 67 but they have 4 picks remaining through 160 with solid Coverage of 100%.
3. MIN - Positive Cumulative Criticality as their two lowest priority critical positions are QB and LB; they also enjoy 300% Critical Coverage with 8 of the remaining Top 160 picks.
4. NYJ - Starting out tied for worst position with JAX, the Jets cleared out two of their top 3 Critical Positions and dropped down closer to the middle of the pack even after trading way a pair of 3rd rounders in a trade up package to get.

Screwed (for now...)

1. LAR - Their top 3 Priorities have the worst Criticality and their ADP remaining is 20th out of 32 teams. With no picks in the first round and quality players flying off the board, the Rams could only sit around in their beach house and watch their situation worsen as they begin Day 2 with the lowest Criticality.
2. SEA - Not only is their cumulative Criticality is the 2nd lowest after Day 1, but they currently have negative Coverage meaning they have three needs of high Criticality with just two top 160 picks.  
3. PIT - Their first rounder was spent on the position with the highest Criticality (RB) so they missed out on a more potentially scarce position. Will a starting caliber OL be there when they pick at 55?  They were second overall at the start of Day 1 but end the day third from the bottom.
4. PHI - They went Best Player Available in a position that had high Criticality (that is, supply was greater than demand and priority was not incredibly urgent) and now they need to find solid CB and OL, the most impacted positions at this point of the draft. with selections 37 and 70. Good luck. 
5. DAL - Blocked from the two premier CB, Jerruh has to deal with picking up a second tier (at best) CB and also an OL. 
6. IND - Three Critical Positions, two picks remaining in the top 160 with negative Coverage. 

Thoughts for Day 2

• We'll see how many CB and OL fly off the board early in Round 2 as those positions have the lowest Criticality (largest shortfalls in supply vs demand and large number of teams with these priority needs.
• The top players available based on NFL.com grades in the remaining top 160
• Jeremiah Owusu-Korahmoah - 6.82 grade which had him as the #7 player overall.  A steal for a team that can utilize him.
• Christian Barmore - 6.70 grade put him at #25.
• Azeez Ojulari - 6.39 grade has him at #28.
• Tyson Campbell - 6.37 grade puts him at #31.

There will be a lot more change in the measurements at the end of day 2 since there will be many more draft picks to shake things up.  Make sure to check out the update tomorrow before watching Day 3!

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Don't forget to check out the DraftTwitter Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects list for 2021!

The Fifth Annual All-DraftTwitter Top 100 Big Board Aggregation Project

 Let's Do it Again

If you follow this blog you know interaction and collaboration are core values.  For the last five years that attitude has been celebrated via a survey of passionate evaluators just like you who contribute their top 100 NFL Draft big boards to be aggregated into one board that gives an overall sentiment of how we, the People, feel about the top NFL prospects.  

Heroes

Here are the friends and colleagues who make this all possible:

• Bill Carroll - Twitter Handle: @elevenbravo138
• Matt - Twitter Handle:  @ZazzyJets
• Jacob Infante - Twitter Handle:  @jacobinfante24
• Gab - Twitter Handle: @GabLikesFball
• Ryan Rosko - Twitter Handle: @SkoSports
• TheCutFFL - Twitter Handle:  @ theCutFFL
• Jimmy Williams - Twitter Handle: @draftguyjimmy
• Michael Thomas Marquez Callaway- Twitter Handle: @zonereads
• etienne rb1. - Twitter Handle: @thedraftgenius
• Seth Murphy - Twitter Handle: @SethMurphyBBD
• Connor Lervold- Twitter Handle: @LervoldNFLDraft
• Jonas Stark - Twitter Handle: @JonasStaerk
• Halil's Real Footballtalk - Twitter Handle: @halilsfbtalk
• Alex Gilstrap - Twitter Handle: @AlexGilstrap
• Jason Willis - Twitter Handle: @JWillisScouting
• Jake White - Twitter Handle: @TrueWhoDat12
• Jake Sirkus - Twitter Handle: @JakeSirkus
• Brandon SoederPenner- Twitter Handle: @lamachine17
• Dylan Tereman - Twitter Handle: @DTereman

I would encourage the reader to follow each of the above.  A special shout-out to Bill Carroll who has participated in each Top 100 list over the last five years. He is the Godfather of DraftTwitter and adds to the community every day.

Keep an eye out for future blogs reviewing how aggressive each contributor was in their selections (compared to the group as a whole) and for 3 year reviews of each Top 100 list to actual performance (2018 is past due and in the works for post Draft delivery).

Let's get to it...

Top 100 Players for the NFL 2021 Draft

  

Avg Rank: Average score for each player in the aggregation based on #1 overall assigned 100 pts, #2 gets 99 pts and so on, down to #100 getting 1 pt.

Off Prior Player:  The difference in Avg Rank of a player and the one selected directly before him.

Top 100 by Tier

I broke up each position into quartiles based on scores and aggregated to give a tiered presentation.

• Because the tiers are based on position, the overall rank numbers (first column) are not sequential.
• Centers and Guards are aggregated into "IOL" for this exercise.

Comments:

• DL
• Barmore is the only Tier I player (Ranked 13 spots above the next DL)
• Only 2 of 8 in our top 100 are in the first 2 tiers.
• IOL 
• Vera-Tucker is the only Tier I player  (Ranked 14 spots ahead of the next IOL)
• There are no Tier III players
• LB
• There are no Tier III players
• Tier I & II players outnumber Tier IV players 7 to 4.
• QB
• No Tier II QB
• Mac Jones is 29 places after Trey Lance (#12)
• Kyle Trask is #93 (52 places after Jones)
• RB
• No Tier III RB
• SAF
• Moehrig is the only Tier I player
• The next player is 25 places after him
• There are more Tier IV Safeties (4) than Tiers I, II and III combined. 
• WR
• DraftTwitter gives you even odds on receivers as as it is 50/50 between Tiers I & II vs Tiers III and IV.

Position Strength

 Based on the opinions shared by the DraftTwitter contributors, here are the average grades for each position. 

Thanks again to the contributors this year and keep an eye out for my review of the 2018 draft to see how the Draft Twitter evaluators compared to the NFL GMs in terms of productivity of the top 100 picks for each.

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Please check out these other blog posts:

• Is Your Team Screwed in the 2021 NFL Draft? - The annual Supply and Demand analysis for the draft looks at which teams have the draft capital to meet their  positional "needs" and which teams will be scrambling to find talent.  This series is updated at the end of each draft day so don't forget to check back before Day 2 and Day 3!
• Tanking for Trevor? -  The worst team gets the top prize in the NFL draft but is the draft position of the quarterback really important when it comes to the ultimate NFL goal?
• College Football Wide Receiver Return on Investment for NFL Draft 2021 - Taking our annual look at how this year's crop of college receivers compare when  Dominator Rating is compared to my own Return on Investment metric.  

Review of Explosiveness for NFL Draft 2021 Prospects

BOOM!

One of my favorite books from my Sports Management Worldwide (SMWW) NFL GM and Scouting course was "Take Your Eye off the Ball 2.0" by Pat Kirwan.  For those of you who might not know Pat, his resume is impressive. Prior to embarking on a successful career as a football journalist, he worked in coaching and front office management at all levels, working his way up to Director of Player Administration for the NY Jets.  His book is a vital teaching tool for anyone who scouts for a hobby or is looking for a career in this vocation.

Explosiveness

In his book, Pat gives the formula for desirable player explosiveness based on Combine numbers:

Bench Press Reps + Vertical Jump (Inches) +Broad Jump (Feet) > 70

This formula was designed to identify explosiveness for players in the defensive front seven and offensive line.  His track record in using this method has been pretty successful in his experience.  For the purposed of monitoring this metric, I'll call it the Kirwan Explosiveness Number and refer to it as "KEN". 

Who rose to the occasion during Pro Days this year?

Offensive Line/Defensive Front Seven

• BMI Pos Z represents the Z score for the position group for the qualifiers listed here only.  Small sample so take it for what it's worth.
• These are all the players who exceeded the KEN threshold of 70 this draft cycle; if you don't see a player's name he likely fell short.

• Green highlights note exceptional numbers
• Milton Williams of LA Tech won the Pro Day competition with a total KEN of 83.1 fueled by stand out performances in Vertical and Broad jumps for the DL group.
• Kwity Paye of Michigan had an impressive showing on the bench with 36 reps while Penn State's Jayson Oweh and Joseph Ossai of Texas showed out in the jumping evaluations. 
• Jamin Davis of Kentucky had the best broad jump of the top KEN Linebackers.

• Yellow highlights reflect numbers that are out of pattern with the group on the downside.
• Oweh and his teammate Shaka Toney join Williams as having lower than average BMI relative to their position groups (based on the KEN finishers here, only).
• Williams, Ossai and Davis all performed below their peers in the bench while Sooner Creed Humphrey holds the bottom spot of all OL qualifiers.
• I'm no scientist, but all four of the above also have below average BMI.
• Stanford's Drew Dalman trailed his peer group in the broad jump having the lowest measure for that metric of all KEN qualifiers.

• While Williams has the highest total KEN score, Paye has a 5.7 point lead over the #2 at his position (Williams' lead is only 1.3 points and there is one more competitor right next to him).  
• The OL-T position is most consistent in terms of KEN with just a 3.8 point variance between the top and bottom.  
• Big Boy shout out to Trojan Alijah Vera-Tucker who led his peer group with the largest BMI of all KEN qualifiers regardless of position.

If you are like me, you've found a couple of new, interesting names here for further consideration. 

Non-OL/Front Seven Players

Although Kirwan only considers this metric for the OL/Front Seven, we can figure out the weight of the bench component for qualifiers for the overall KEN metric for 2021 results, and strip it out to leave just the jumping components.  To ensure we get the best performers, I've settled on a Vertical plus Broad threshold of 47 for non-Front Seven players (which is around 10% higher than the raw number I calculated when stripping out bench).  

*This is just for illustrative purposes; I'm not equating this in any way to Kirwan's work.

Total = Vertical plus Broad jumps.

Bench Exp = Total plus Bench

• Although Total greater than 47 qualifies for the list, the highlighted metrics reflect players whose KEN exceeds 70.

It will be interesting to see how the qualifying players are drafted and perform. 

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If you like the post above, please check out some other recent articles:

Does Size Really Matter?

We have the medicals on Devonta Smith and Tutu Atwell and know their actual heights and weights.  But does it matter in today's NFL?  We took a look at every receiver who measured at the NFL combine since 2000 to see how the big guys compared to the small guys.  Click the link above to see the results.

Threading the Needle

How have the top NFL QB Draft Prospects performed in terms of accuracy? Glad you asked!  Click the link above to check out the details on QB accuracy and average depth of target (ADOT).