Week 11 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment - Who Gets More with Less? - Plus New Touchdown Proficiency Ranking!

Catch Up

Week 12 is wrapping up so let's take a look back at Week 11's Top ROI performances:

FBS

This week we will take a look at a couple of new perspectives on wide receivers, starting with the usual Return on Investment table for all qualifying (total receptions at least 1 standard deviation from the mean or better of the top 150 receivers in terms of yards) junior and seniors.

• As we get near the end of the season, the large volume of data on each player begins to flatten the trends and, as such, we don't see many significant changes in the Top 14 compared to last week, with 6 of those players unchanged.
• The Ruler's Back - Butler repeats as #1 with his fifth showing on the ninth list (recall, the first list came out in Week 3 of the season). I have seen him projected at WR14 overall, so he could be a huge bargain if his game film is solid.
• There's Only One - Green is the only FBS player to show up on every Top 20 list so far this year (Poindexter from Arizona fell off).   His ability as a return man potentially gives  him extra value for NFL draft. 
• No Scrubs - There are no new entries on the list; all have been in the top 20 at some point this season.
• Top Gun - Isabella led FBS in receiving yards through Week 11 and remains in the Top 20 for the second consecutive week.  If he can hang on until the final list, he would be the first receiving yards leader to do so.
• Thanks for Showing Up - Scotty Miller and Edwards were on the pre-season ROI watch list and are making a run to finish in the Top 20. 
• Twins - There is only one school with multiple players on the list this week and that is Buffalo with potential 1st round draft pick Johnson and his teammate, Osborn.  

Unqualified Successes?

The list below includes all draft eligible receivers  (excluding redshirt freshmen) as described above, except we ignore the relationship to the mean. 

• The Gray background indicates a player would not have qualified for Final ROI consideration; the Green did or would have qualified. 
• Ubosi of UAB would have had a staggeringly high efficiency of greater than 400% of average but his total reception total is about 48% below average so we have to look to see if this is related primarily to him receiving deep passes or his Yards After Catch.

At one point in its short history, ROI ignored the relationship to the mean qualifier and we saw  a lot of guys who had high YPR numbers but also fairly one dimensional relying on deep threats like Devin Smith and Sammie Coates.  The qualifier was put in place to ensure the players have a meaningful sample however, as with Ubosi, careful review of actual game play might help find a diamond in the rough. 

Touchdown Proficiency

Earlier versions of ROI included a measure for Touchdown "efficiency"; the struggle was how to properly weight TD production given WR skill in each particular situation is one of so many other factors come into play.  While this challenge persists,  we can review the rate of  TDs production to support further NFL draft research into a name that might be new.  

The table above lists the Touchdown Proficiency for draft likely (juniors and seniors) players.  The number is based on the rate of that player's TD production compared to that of the rest of his teammates.

• ECU's Brown led the list producing TDs at a rate 592% better than average for the top 150 WRs based on receiving yards (through Week 11).
• Brown was one of 9 players on the TD Proficiency list to also make the Top 20 ROI list. 
• Of the remaining 11 players, one, Arcega- Whiteside, had ROI above the sample mean of 16.6%.
• Of the remaining 10, just 4 (Bussey Jr., Harry, Boykin and Winston Jr) have positive ROI; that is, they generate more yards than one would project based on the pro rata reception distribution for their teams.
• The remaining 6 (Bradford, Mims, Duhart, Thompson, Sills V and Jennings) provided negative ROI; this is not to say they are not excellent receivers as there are many factors that could contribute to inefficient ROI. (Recall ROI is not a leading indicator, but it provided a way to "screen out" performers who might be under the radar).

The Rest of the NCAA

Somehow, as if by wizardry, the other 3 NCAA divisions, FBS, Division 2 and Division 3 have figured out how to have a playoff system.  We skip week 11 for these divisions and will provide a final, pre-playoff ROI and Touchdown Proficiency analysis for each in the forthcoming week.

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Week 10 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Update

Week 10

Thanks for checking in. This week will be short and sweet.  If you are looking for more detail on what Wide Receiver Return on Investment or ROI is all about, check out this prior post.

FBS

• Shift - The "Adjusted" column reflects ROI vs average when the average Passing Efficiency Defense of each team's schedule is considered. If the Adjusted ROI is higher, that means the player faced above average passing defense; when it is lower, just the opposite occurred.
• The Ruler's Back - With his 2nd consecutive week at the top spot (4th overall), Butler has ROI that is 381% better than average.  Not sure anyone has ever had higher ROI this late in the season since the measure was fine tuned more than 3 years ago. 
• Welcome to the Club - FBS leader in receiving yards, Isabella has cracked the list at #18 overall.  He is joined by top draft prospect Johnson from Buffalo who has finally enough receptions to qualify.  Well done!
• Staring Contest - Green of La.-Monroe and Poindexter of Arizona are each waiting for the other to drop off the list so that there can be one WR on the list from the first week.  Custis, Brown and Arcega-Whiteside are kicking themselves for missing just one week.
• Two the Hard Way - Edwards joins Scotty Miller as players who were predicted to be solid ROI players in 2018 based on their performance over the prior 2 seasons.  Will definitely be looking at film on both this week.

NCAA Comparison

The "Baddest Man" in terms of WR ROI is the top player across all 4 NCAA divisions:  FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III. 

ROI Margin represents the distance between the player and the 2nd place WR in terms of ROI. 

• As you can see, Butler is killing it in terms of top ROI and ROI Margin.  
• Duverger returned to the top of D2 after leading for nearly the entire season - current Jaguar Keelan Cole is the only player to lead in ROI the entire season.  
• Shulte out of Wartburg is a long shot to make the NFL, but we have had D3 players make it in the past. 
• Christian has been a mainstay in terms of ROI over the last couple of years so it will be interesting to see if any GMs pick up on his skill set.

These names have all been on the list for a while now...we get it, they are all extraordinarily efficient but that doesn't guaranty the reasons for their success will translate to the next level. Is the player just a product of his system or taking advantage of poor competition?  Or does is his success a derivative of his game skills.  ROI is just an indicator for further research. 


That's all for this week...swing by again for the Week 11 full on update for all four NCAA divisions!

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Week 9 of NCAA Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency...All 4 Divisions

Eight? Not So Great

So last week was a bit hectic and so the update was simply not created.  We are going straight into Week 9 because, you know, things slowed down a bit. We are rapidly sliding into the tail end of the regular season and so let's take a look at the top performers.

Return on Investment is an efficiency measure that attempts to point out performers who produce more with less.  The goal is not to validate the WR1, but to find players who may be getting overlooked with potential to be significant contributors once they get to the NFL. And for a lot less in terms of draft capital.  ROI is all about value. Some of the players screened out by ROI over the years include the Chiefs' Chris Conley, the Rams' Cooper Kupp, the Jaguars' Keelan Cole and the Texans' Keke Coutee, among others. 

FBS

Notes:

• Do You Want an Encore?- Butler from Iowa State took a hiatus last week (he did not have enough receptions to qualify) to return to the number one spot overall. I will be looking at video of him to see if his production is driven by scheme or his own hard work.
• And Then There Were Two - Only Green from Louisiana Monroe and  Poindexter from Arizona have been on each and every top 20 list this season. Can they go wire to wire?
• 50/50 - The current list is split evenly with 10 seniors and 10 juniors (sophomores will be included in the post season ROI listings until Declaration Day, after which only those declaring for the draft will be listed). 
• The Long Run - Scott Miller is the only pre-season ROI selections to remain on this list meaning he has had solid efficiency for the last three seasons. 
• New Jack City - First time appearances by 4:  
• Hightower from Boise State
• Ward from Hawai'i
• Mooney from Tulane
• Humphrey from Texas

FCS

•  Mutiny - Christian reclaimed his #1 standing after the incumbent could not garner enough receptions to qualify.
• Teenage Riot - Juniors outnumber Senior 13-7 on this week's list however, I don't recall seeing FCS players declare early for the draft so we will start excluding Juniors in the lower tier NCAA divisions over the next few weeks.
• Nubes - We welcome Bobby Hartzog and Reggie White Jr (not the one you're thinking of) to the list as first timers.  Pace, Gueller and Cotton just took some "me" time away from the list...

Division II

New #1 Greenhow knocks out Duverger who has held the #1 spot most of the season.  I know it is D2, but over the last 3 games, Greenhow has collected 152, 276 and 207 yard games. Omigie (just want him to go pro so his nickname can be "OMG!") and Brummitt also crashed this week's list.

Division III

Shulte of Wartburg remains atop DIII by a healthy margin. He's gone over 140 yards three times this season, but with two games remaining, it's doubtful anyone can supplant him. He and Day have been list mainstays.

NCAA Baddest Man of the Week





Butler returns with a vengeance to take the top spot in terms of ROI in all the land.  He is a very big receiver who runs hard and, should he come out for he 2019 draft, will be an intriguing prospect. 

The Wearer of the Touchdown Chain is...



Division II gets to wear the Touchdown Chain this week thanks to Azusa Pacific's Carr who's Receiving Touchdown Rate of 1 touchdown every 2.8 receptions is 205% better than average.  FBS is represented by Johnson, whose Toledo has one of the most talent WR trios in NCAA football today.

Looking forward to wrapping up the season over the next month so stay tuned for regular updates.

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