2016 NFL Draft for Value Rankings

In every aspect of our lives, we're looking for value. 

Getting more for less. In the NFL Draft, it's all about taking advantage of the chaotic environment to find players other teams may have overlooked and avoiding the temptation to draft a player earlier than the market would dictate. This analysis attempts to use the expected position salaries from the first overall pick to the final man selected to assess the cost of each player compared to the potential value he may have to the franchise.

Assuming 2014 rookie salary figures for the recently drafted players (that is, Goff’s salary will be the same as the first player picked in 2014, Wentz's would be the same as the second player selected in 2014 and so on),  we can assume the value of a player to a franchise from a financial commitment level perspective.  This allows us to assume certain cost comparison values. Accordingly, Goff is 38.9x more costly than the last player drafted (please see the post for the Player Comparison Tool, which will allow you to compare players based cost comparison value).  Based on our reasoning, he is also 3.43x more valuable to his franchise than newly drafted Bronco Paxton Lynch.   So, if  Goff does not provide 3.43x more impact to his team, we could say the Broncos got a tremendous value in Lynch. Of course, the subjectivity of what is "impact" is material for another day, but this exercise is designed to help quantify an immeasurable value.  Remember, all figures relate to the #1 overall spot.  The higher the number, the lower the cost and the higher the potential for value. Using this comparative value concept as a framework for the rest of our analysis, we come up with the following three measures:

Average Overall Value/Overall #1 Pick – This measures the average value of each player’s comparable value to the Overall #1 pick.  Essentially, the higher the number,the lower in the draft the average player on that team was selected.  This number alone does not give us an idea of how well the Eagles selected because draft pick position is not an indicator of quality.  The Eagles were the top team with average picks at a cheap 27.9x less cost than the #1 pick. The Saints had the costliest picks, an average of 16.16x less than Goff.

Average Position Value/#1 – This measures each position player by their cost in relation to the #1 drafted player in their position.   For example, Joey Bosa was the #1 DE drafted so he has a value of 1.00x.  Shaq Lawson was the third DE to come off the board and, based on value to the franchise, Bosa is 2.86x more valuable than Lawson. If Bosa’s impact over the course of their rookie contracts is not 2.86x greater, the Bills got a tremendous value in Lawson. Going through each teams picks and comparing them to the player picked #1 at each position, the Niners got the best position value at 19.33x, while the Saints picked players early once their position “opened” after the #1 player was drafted, paying 4.17x

Average Sequential Pick Value – How soon after the last player  at a certain position was drafted did a team draft the same position?  In Rounds 2-7, if you select a position after it had just been selected, your value is going to be closer to 1.00x since salary values don’t decline as rapidly in these rounds as in the first. Big values can be found drafting outside of the current round.   For example, Kamalei Correa at #42 and Jihad Ward  at #44 are of nearly identical value coming out of the second round, but both are 2.02x more valuable than Carl Nassib, drafted in the top of the 3^rd round.  If Nassib performs on par with the other two, he was a major steel. The biggest gap (rightfully so in some minds) was at running back where Zeke Elliott is 6.55x more valuable than Derrick Henry.   The Titans got nice value with an avg of 1.67x when choosing the next position player while the Steelers seemed to be copy cats with an avg. sequential pick value of 1.03x.

Aggregate Draft Value – This calculated the average rank (1-32) in each of the three other categories. The Top 3 in terms of picking for value are the Niners, Eagles and Vikings.  The bottom three are the Saints (#32), Buccaneers (#31) and Panthers (#30).  To get the entire picture, we have to assess the quality of players they got at those perspective values.

Average Player Grade - Player grades were assigned based on the NFL.com DraftTracker  That Can Be Seen Here .  The teams with the highest average player grade were the Jaguars, Titans and Bears.  The lowest were the Patriots (#32), Chiefs (#31) and Eagles (30).

Best Draft for Value – Averaging the Aggregate Draft Value with the Average Player Grade give us the final Value Rank for each team.  The results are here:  Google Drive 2016 NFL Team Draft Value Comparison Final value grade is in the last column on the right. 

Art of the Deal – The four teams pulling off block buster trades had varied results.

• Titans – Traded out of #1 position had the 4^th best value based draft.
• Ram – Traded into the #1 spot and was 24^th on the list.
• Browns – Trade out of the #2 position and had the 28^th rated draft based on value.
• Eagles – Moved up to #2 and came away with the 14^th rated draft from a value perspective.

Rising in the East - The AFC East occupied the top 3 spots.

Southern Blues – Teams from the NFC South occupied 3 of the 4 bottom spots.

Most Picks

• CLE (14) – 28^th                    
• BAL (11) - 15th
• SF (11) – 7th

Fewest Picks

• CAR (5) -32^nd
• NO (5) -25^th       

Despite all the numbers and rationale, we won't know who "won" the draft until they line up to play in September.  As we go over this draft in three years, we will see who really got the best value out of this draft.  Usually, we'll know by which GMs and head coaches are still employed.