Opening FBS WR Efficiency for 2016

Premature?  Maybe!

Week Three hasn't even gotten underway and already I'm posting the top 25 draft eligible in terms of Return on Investment  (Understanding the Concept of WR Return on Investment ).  This list by no means expresses the "best" wide receivers or even my personal favorites.   The list simply gives insight into which receivers are producing at a high level given their respective workloads.  ROI is another way to identify WR for further investigation who might not otherwise get noticed.

For Your Consideration...

• The list is derived from the top 150 FBS WRs per the NCAA.com statistics. 
• Seniors and Juniors were included so some redshirt Sophomores may be missing. 
• ROI takes into account only Receptions and Reception Yards; Target data is too voluminous for me to manage and I rely on SB Nation superhero Bill Connelly (Twitter handle @SBN_BillC; go follow him immediately if you do not) for that at the end of the season.  Thanks, Bill.
• As this is an early version, the raw data includes Running Back stats.  Players on teams that use RBs in the passing game will be understated at this point. Later in the season I will omit RB data.
• Based on the average number of reception using the sample, no players with fewer receptions than 5 (< 1 standard deviation from average) were included. 
• Due to Excel glitching out on me (or vice versa), my spreadsheet can't see the words "Akron, Houston or North Carolina" so players from those schools won't get analyzed until I fix the formula (sucks since I wanted to see how Jerome Lane and Ryan Switzer panned out). 
• Player names are links to their personal roster pages, so click through and learn more about some of these young men.

Top 20

1. Isaiah Jones - Southern Miss. Jr-  125.7% ROI. He gathered 15.4% of team receptions for 34.7% of team yards.  (He generated 125.7% yards than one would expect for his share of opportunities.)

2. Shay Fields - Colorado Jr - 116.4% ROI on 11.1% of team receptions for 24.0% of team yards.

3. Mikah Holder - San Diego St. -  115.3% ROI on 19.4% of team receptions for 41.7% of team yards.

4. Cody Thompson - Toledo Jr (Preseason #3) 90.3% ROI on 11.1% of team receptions for 24.0% of team yards.

5. Malik Turner - Illinois Jr. 79.7% ROI on 18.2% of team receptions for 32.7% of team yards.

6. Darreus Rogers  - Southern Cal. Sr. 73.6% ROI on 19.6% of team receptions for 34.0% of team yards..

7.  Alonzo Moore - Nebraska Sr. 72.0% ROI on 22.2% of team receptions for 38.2% of team yards..

8.  Austin Duke - Charlotte Sr. 68.8% ROI on 21.4% of team receptions for 36.2% of team yards.

9.  Josh Reynolds - Texas A&M Sr. (Preseason #7) 68.7% ROI on 12.2% of team receptions for 20.7% of team yards.

10. Kevin Kutchera South Alabama Sr. 66.2% ROI on 13.3% of team receptions for 22.2% of team yards.

11.  Deangelo Yancey Purdue Sr. (Preseason #1 if Target minimum ignored)64.6% ROI on 13.8% of team receptions for 22.7% of team yards.

12. James Quick Louisville Sr. 60.1% ROI on 10.6% of team receptions for 17.0% of team yards.

13.  Matt VandeBerg Iowa Sr. 59.4% ROI on 33.3% of team receptions for 53.1% of team yards.

14.  Amara Darboh Michigan Sr. 57.6% ROI on 18.2% of team receptions for 27.8% of team yards.

15.  Robert Wheelwright Wisconsin Sr. 56.0% ROI on 20.5% of team receptions for 32.0% of team yards.

16.  Tim Patrick Utah Sr. 54.2% ROI on 21.6% of team receptions for 33.3% of team yards.

17.  Mike Williams Clemson Jr. 53.3% ROI on 23.9% of team receptions for 36.7% of team yards.

18.  Isaiah McKenzie Georgia Jr. 50.3% ROI on 30.8% of team receptions for 46.8% of team yards.

19.  Marcus Kemp Hawaii, Sr. 49.5% ROI on 30.8% of team receptions for 46.3% of team yards.

20. Jehu Chesson Michigan Sr. 49.5% ROI on 15.9% of team receptions for 23.8% of team yards.

Adjusted for QB Efficiency

Another calculation attempts to normalize QB performance so we adjust ROI to "ding" WRs who have highly accurate QBs and "bump up" those who contend with less accurate passers.  Based on this tweak, here's how the Top 20 would have changes:

1. Isaiah Jones (Unchanged)
2. Mikah Holder (Up 1)
3. Shay Fields  (Down 1)
4. Cody Thompson (Unchanged)
5. Malik Turner (Unchanged)
6. Alonzo Moore (Up 1)
7. Josh Reynolds (Up 2)
8. Darreus Rogers  (Down 2)
9. Kevin Kutchera (Up 1)
10. Deangelo Yancey (Up 1)
11. Austin Duke (Down 3)
12. Mike Williams (Up 5)
13. Marcus Kemp (Up 6)
14. James Quick (Down 2)
15. Matt VandeBerg (Down 2)
16. Tim Patrick (Unchanged)
17. Isaiah McKenzie (Up 1)
18. Robert Wheelwright (Down 3)
19. Allen Lazard (Up 10; not in Top 20.  Please see below)
20. Amara Darboh (Down 6)

Based on the assumptions, Allen Lazard is doing an incredible job despite having sub-par QB accuracy (50.8% for ISU QBs compared to average completion % of 62.2% for FBS).   The QB component caused the decline in Adjusted ROI for Michigan WRs Darboh and Chesson (who dropped to #28) who could potentially be enjoying the advantage of going into their pre-draft seasons with above average QB play (with accuracy of 72.1%!).

Missed It By That Much...

Again, this list is a screening mechanism to help find potential candidates for further analysis. It is not designed to measure talent, simply performance.  As such, there may be a few big name WRs you expected to see but who are absent. Here are some names who were outside the Top 20 :

25.  Devonte Boyd UNLV 42.4% ROI

29.  Allan Lazard Iowa State  40.3% (Preseason #13)

33.  Corey Davis Western Michigan  36.2%

39.  Isaiah (Zay) Jones East Carolina  30.0%

52.  Travis Rudolph Florida State  18.1%

62.  Jordan Westerkamp Nebraska  14.0%

71. Chad Hansen California 2.5%

75. Isaiah (Lot of Isaiahs this year, eh?) Ford Virginia Tech 1.4%

86. KD Cannon Baylor negative ROI <13.8%> (33.3% team Recs/28.7% team Yards)

Shameless Self-promotion!

Check this blog for performance updates on the 2016-17 top performers in terms of ROI.

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Thank you!