Top 20 Wide Receiver Return on Investment Week Ending Sept 17th

Ten New Names in the Top 20

Week Three is in the books and our Return on Investment analysis Top 20 list for draft eligible wide receivers in FBS has turned over 50%!  What caused the changes?

• Under the mark - Based on the statistics of the top 150 FBS receivers (in terms of yards), the magic number for total receptions for inclusion on the list was 10. As the number of games increase, the benchmark for inclusion will restrict entry into the Top 20.
• Low contribution - There will be lots of movement in the Top 20 over the first few weeks as a game of low contribution may cause a player to slide.  

As always, an overview of Return on Investment or ROI can be found on the prior post, Understanding the Concept of WR Return on Investment .  This list by no means expresses the "best" wide receivers or even my personal favorites.   The list simply gives insight into which receivers are producing at a high level given their respective workloads.  ROI is another way to identify WR for further investigation who might not otherwise get noticed.

How'd he do it?

• The list is derived from the top 150 FBS WRs per the NCAA.com statistics. 
• Draft eligible players only, but please let me know of any eligible redshirt sophomores who I may be screening out.  
• ROI takes into account only Receptions and Reception Yards; Target data is too voluminous for me to manage and I rely on SB Nation superhero Bill Connelly (Twitter handle @SBN_BillC; go follow him immediately if you do not) for that at the end of the season.  Thanks, Bill.
• As this is an early version, the raw data includes Running Back stats.  Players on teams that use RBs in the passing game will be understated at this point. Later in the season I will omit RB data.
• Based on the average number of reception using the sample, no players with fewer receptions than 10 (< 1 standard deviation from average) were included. 
• Player names are links to their personal roster pages, so click through and learn more about some of these young men.

     Previous Cumulative                                 

                Name College Class ROI (% Above Average)

1.       Isaiah Jones - Southern Miss. Jr-  125.7% (335%)          

2.       Shay Fields - Colorado Jr - 116.4% (317%)

3.       Mikah Holder - San Diego St, Jr. -  115.3% (250%)

4.       Cody Thompson - Toledo Jr  90.3% (236%)

5.       Malik Turner - Illinois Jr. 79.7% (214%)

6.       Darreus Rogers  - Southern Cal. Sr. 73.6% (212%)

7.       Alonzo Moore - Nebraska Sr. 72.0% (204%)

8.       Austin Duke - Charlotte Sr. 68.8% (192%)

9.       Josh Reynolds - Texas A&M Sr. 68.7% (190%)

10.   Kevin Kutchera South Alabama Sr. 66.2% (187%)

11.    Deangelo Yancey Purdue Sr. 64.6% (176%)

12.   James Quick Louisville Sr. 60.1% (172%)

13.   Matt VandeBerg Iowa Sr. 59.4% (171%)

14.   Amara Darboh Michigan Sr. 57.6% (159%)

15.   Robert Wheelwright Wisconsin Sr. 56.0% (156%)

16.   Tim Patrick Utah Sr. 54.2% (148%)

17.   Mike Williams Clemson Jr. 53.3% (144%)

18.    Isaiah McKenzie Georgia Jr. 50.3% (143%)

19.   Marcus Kemp Hawaii, Sr. 49.5% (140%)

20.   Jehu Chesson Michigan Sr. 49.5% (139%)

 Season to Date Ending 9/17/16

Name College Class ROI % (Above Average); Prior Rank/Vs

1.       Mikah Holder 86.2% (244%); #3/NIU

2.       Donald Gray - Mississippi State Jr – 84.8% (240%); NA/LSU

3.       Cody Thompson 70.5% (199%); #4/Fresno St.

4.       Isaiah Jones 68.4% (193%); #1/Troy

5.       Amara Darboh 60.4% (171%); #14/Colorado

6.       Devin Gray –Cincinnati, Jr 60.0%; NA/Houston

7.       Tim Patrick 58.1%; #16/San Jose State

8.       James Washington – Oklahoma State Jr. 53.5%; NA/Pitt

9.       Keon Hatcher – Arkansas Sr. 50.1%, NA/Texas State

10.   T.L. Ford II Charlotte JR. 46.1%; NA/Eastern Michigan

11.   Doni Dowling – Virginia Jr. 43.6%; NA/Connecticut

12.   Amba Etta-Tawo – Syracuse Sr. 42.7%; NA/South Florida

13.   Al Riles – UL Lafayette Sr. 42.6%; NA/South Alabama

14.   Allen Lazard 41.6%; NA/TCU

15.   Corey Davis Western Michigan Sr. 41.3% (117%)/Illinois

16.   Austin Duke 39.7% (112%); #8/Eastern Michigan

17.   Sebastian Smith Ohio Sr. 39.6% (112%); NA/Tennessee

18.   Marcus Kemp 38.6% (109%); #19/Arizona

19.   Malik Turner 38.2% (108%); #5/Western Michigan

20.   Josh Reynolds 38.0% (107%); #9/Auburn

Based on normalizing for QB accuracy, that is, dinging receivers with above average QBs and bumping receivers with below average passers. 

Season to Date Ending 9/17/16

Name (Change from last week)

1.       Mikah Holder (Up 1)

2.       Donald Gray (NA)

3.       Isaiah Jones (Down 2)

4.       Cody Thompson (Unchanged)

5.       Devin Gray (NA)

6.       Amara Darboh (Up 14)

7.       Tim Patrick (Up 9)

8.       James Washington  (NA)

9.       Allen Lazard (Up 10)

10.   Marcus Kemp (Up 4)

11.   T.L. Ford II (NA)

12.   Keon Hatcher (NA)

13.   Josh Reynolds (Down 5)

14.   Sebastian Smith (NA)

15.   Doni Dowling (NA)

16.   Amba Etta-Tawo (NA)

17.   Mike Williams (Down 4)

18.   Malik Turner (Down 12)

19.   Isaiah McKenzie (Down 1)

20.   Al Riles (NA)

Looks like a nice week for WR matchups:

Thursday Clemson's Mike Williams vs. Georgia State
Friday * Utah's Tim Patrick vs. USC's Darreus Rogers 
Saturday * Arkansas' Keon Hatcher vs. TAMU's Josh Reynolds
Saturday * Michigan's Amara Darboh vs Penn State
Saturday * Central Michigan's Corey Davis vs Virginia's Doni Dowling

Shameless Self-promotion!

Check this blog for performance updates on the 2016-17 top performers in terms of ROI.

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Thank you!