Sunday, December 10, 2017

NFL Draft 2018 Crash Course - Top Tackles for Loss Generators Across NCAA

Time to Get Down to Business

The NCAA 2017 football regular season is over, however, now is the time where true fans watch more game footage than during the year to prepare for the upcoming NFL Player Draft. To help, this space will run several "Crash Course" pieces which will not definitively state the best players come April, but will simply help get you up to speed on some name you may not know.

This first piece will discuss the seniors who have the highest Tackles for Loss ratio.

The Numbers

This analysis is simple: It ranks players by number of plays it takes him to obtain one Tackle for a Loss (TFL). This helps normalize statistics as some players, due to facing a higher number of opponents plays, would naturally have higher TFL totals. The lower the ratio, the better. The players were listed on the Total Tackles for Loss statistical report on the NCAA webpage. Despite many underclassmen being eligible for the NFL draft, only seniors are profiled here.

Division 3

Based on average TFL ratio of all subjects, D3 had the second best average with its players generating on average one TFL every 51.07 snaps (106% better than the average of 1 every 53.53).

Overall #1 - Nicholas Giorgio, Junior, Springfield College: 1 TFL ever 26.01 snaps (#1 NCAA)

This 6'1" 240 lbs Defensive End from Cumberland, Rhode Island is not just number one in Division 3, he's number 1 in our overall analysis across FBS, FCS and also D2.

Top Senior - Montel Lee, Ferrum 1 TFL every 28.70 snaps (87% better than average).

Recently named the USA South Athletic Conference's Defensive Player of the year for the second consecutive year, this 5'10" 260 lbs Defensive Tackle was the leagues' Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2014. Along with his 23 TFL in 2017, he added 4 forced fumbles.

Here is about the only footage I could find of him:

The following players round out the Top 5 Division 3 TFL Leaders:

Division 2

Of the NCAA subdivisions, Division 2 as a whole required the most plays on average to generate one TFL (57.01).

Overall #1 - TIE: John Cominsky (6'5" 275 lbs) and Kahzin Daniels (6'4" 240 lbs), Charleston (WV) with a TFL every 27.26 plays (96% better than average).

Not sure what they put in the water at Charleston but the top 2 DII DL in terms of TTFL are both Juniors so it will be interesting to see what havoc the Golden Eagles wreak next year.

Top Senior - Jalen Nelson, Charleston (WV) 1 TFL every 29.86 plays run by the opponent. (79% > average).

How long before Charleston Defensive Line coach Zach Santolla gets noticed by FBS? His defense is generating TFL at a ridiculous pace. The top DII senior is Nelson, a 6'1", 240 lbs LB all Mountain East Conference 1st Teamer, is also a Golden Eagle.

Here is his high school footage:

Take a look at the rest of the Top 5 for Division II:

FCS

Overall, the FCS was third in terms of average Plays per TTFL with 54.58.

Overall #1 - The top defender for FCS in terms of TTFL is 6'1" 240 lbs Jonathan Petersen of San Diego, who is also a Senior with 25.5 TTFL. For his efforts, Petersen captured the Pioneer League's Defensive Player of the Year award.

Here he is in action:

Here are the rest of the FCS Top 5:

FBS

For NCAA's premier subdivision turned in the best performance as a group, requiring only 46.39 plays to convert a tackle for loss; no other division broke the 50 play barrier.

Overall #1 - Sutton Smith of Northern Illinois is a 6'0" 225 lbs LB who collected 28.5 TTFL as a redshirt Sophomore has the pedigree (both parents played collegiate sports) and was Player of the Year in high school out of the Saint Charles, MO area. It will be interesting to see how he fares next year.

Top Senior - Bradley Chubb of North Carolina State - The 6'4" 275 lbs DE, already projected to be a top pick, was a force his entire career, laying out 26 TTFL. His father played at Georgia and he brother Brandon is currently on the Detroit Lions and his cousin Nick is a running back at Georgia, will also be prized this coming NFL Draft.

Here is some of his finest work:

The rest of the Top 5:

Watch this space for more NFL Draft Crash Course pieces where we attempt to take fresh looks at the top prospects.

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Gearing up for the 2nd DraftTwitter NFL Draft Top 100 and I need your feedback on the top 100 prospects, the only list that is created by amateur (and some professional) scouts like you! And I'd love you to submit a ballot. Check out last year's here. Stay tuned for more info coming over the next few weeks.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

UPDATE: How are DraftTwitter's Top 2017 NFL Draft Picks Doing?

The Internet Never Forgets!

Others may put out their NFL Draft picks and hope no one ever revisits, but when that body known as "DraftTwitter" puts it on the line, we go back and validate.

The "DraftTwitter Top 100"

On April 23, 2017, a group of NFL amateur, semi-pro and pro scouts participated in an effort to allow all the talking heads in the Twitterverse to finally have a venue for showing the world how smart they all are. That effort was named the "DraftTwitter Top 100" and the results can be found here.

Over 20 brave souls worked on their own respective ranking of the Top 100 NFL Draft prospect (not a mock draft, that is). From Bowl season, to senior showcase games, to the NFL Combine to actual draft day, our scout team stayed connected to discuss, debate and, finally, contribute their ballots which were used to generate this list. Our goal is for someday the DraftTwitter 100 to be the NFL Draft community equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

A Looooong Way to Go

The conventional wisdom dictates no draft can be reliably graded until 3 years have passed. DraftTwitter is neither conventional nor wise and so we have ranked each contributors' Top 25 picks (which were their most confident picks) based on the following:

Aggregate Start Percentage - This space has previously argued the best way to measure and compare players across all positions without attempting the futile task of assigning values (as the basis of any system would be largely subjective) is by starts. The coach's only keep their jobs by winning and so, they most naturally will play only those who they believe will give them the best chance to win. Thus, if a player has more starts as a rookie, that implies they are the best option for the team to win. The table below illustrates the average number of starts per position for the 2017 draft class:

Players on Injured Reserve were NOT included in the above calculation nor were QBs who sat behind starters (just Mahomes). Players who were cut were included at "0%"
Inside Linebackers (2 in the DraftTwitter 100) played in an average of 6.5 games and started in each one for a perfect Start Percentage of 100%.
The nine Defensive Ends who saw action in an average of 8.9 games only started 1.4 of them for the low end of the Start Percentage range of just 20%. Granted DEs rotate, but the group average of 2.2 sacks will likely also impact playing minutes.
The WR pool was not helped by injuries as the top 3 picks at this position (Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross) each missed a significant number of games.

Graded Starts - The second category for analysis awarded players points based on where each DraftTwitter scout ranked them in the Top 25 adjusted by their start percentage as a way to ding you for overvaluing a player. The maximum score was 325 points.

Each DraftTwitter scout was slotted based on their average ranking based on the above.

DraftTwitter vs The 4 Letter Network's "Other Guy"

We splurged for the Insider feature for a certain "4 Letter Network" and tracked the picks of one of their NFL Draft Analysts (there are two: one has been a pioneer in professional scouting for decades and the Other Guy has not). His results are compared along with the other contributing scouts identified here:

Here is the list of contributing scouts:

Bill Carroll @elevenbravo138

Blake Wyatt @NflDraft_KC

vixticator, again? @vixticator

Benjamin Solak @BenjaminSolak

Jim Cobern@Jimetrics

douglas byrne @dbyrne70

Kent Lee Platte @MathBomb

A.J. Milack @AJMilackNFL

Andrew Moss @NFLscoutTampa

there's no offseason @SMBLOB

TMD @TheMockingDraft

Donrey Mariñas @DonreyMarinas

Jonathan Valencia @JonValencia_WiB

Michael Kist @MichaelJKist

CJ Agnone @CJagnone53

rockyjack @rockysports793

Scott McLean @scottinthe503

Zone Reads @ZoneReads

Matt Miller @NFLdraftscout

Here is the list:

The tracking number in front of each scout's name is used for administrative purposes and has no other meaning.

The second to last column provides the overall rank and the final column Variance denotes the average number of picks each player selection was compared to the DraftTwitter Aggregate Ranking for each player were compared to the Draft Twitter 100 (the higher the number, the more in line with the average pick).

Takeaways

Kudos to ZoneReads who leads the pack through 11 games.
THIS IS VERY EARLY! Things will look very different after 48 games are played. These rookies are still getting used being in the work force (my first job after school didn't require me to be mercilessly criticized by complete strangers who have never, ever done my job), moving to a strange new city and a getting accustom to a whole new team (with all that entails). They will need time to figure it all out. This list will no doubt change bigly over the 3 year period from the 2017 draft date and this space will do its best to keep you updated periodically on player progress through the metrics we've laid out above. That being said, Overall Rankings are, at this point, no indication of the scouts' ability. With injuries and mix of player positions having to work their way up, there should be no gloating or disappointment for anyone.
That being said, do you see how the DraftTwitter Top 25 is just kicking the crap out of 4 Letter Network's Other Guy?

We Need YOU to Build the DraftTwitter Top 100 project

Not only will we continue to provide updates to the last draft class as we move toward their 3 year draft anniversary, we need YOU to submit a DraftTwitter 100 ballot so that we can reach the goal of 100 independent scout contributors.

If you love the NFL Player Draft and are tired of trying to talk football with others who may not be as passionate as you are (I think we've all been down that road), you are definitely invited to take a peak at becoming a contributor for the 2018 DraftTwitter Top 100. If interested in being contacted after Bowl Season to contribute no more than 2 ballots using our easy online template, please shoot an email to Boombearjr@gmail.com.

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Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of ROI.

Also, go like the new Boombearjr Football Analysis Facebook Page and follow me there! https://www.facebook.com/boombearjr/.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Week 12 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top 20

FBS ROI in Flux!

Only one week left in the regular season before Conference Championship Games and the overall FBS ROI rankings remains unsettled.

With the regular season coming to a close, the Return on Investment numbers will move from preliminary to final as other data and adjustments are added to the formula to zero in on under the radar WRs.

Top Five - Last week's Top Five has turned over 60% with Adonis Jennings and Jordan Lasley crashing the top 5 (Lasley was one of my pre-season "Breakout" candidates).
New Number 1 - After 3 straight weeks at #1, Sergio Bailey II has relinquished the top spot to last week's #7, Trevon Brown whose raw numbers so far this season represents 153% more production than the average FBS receiver.
Last Lap - James Washington, Cedrick Wilson and Tyre Brady have all registered in the top 20 in every weekly list. Current LA Rams WR Josh Reynolds was the only player to go wire to wire last year; we will see if any of these three can register on every 2017 list.
Light Weights - We track Height/Weight as a measure of mass and based on last year's NFL Player Combine average Height/Weight of 2.79 lbs/inch, only 6 players make the cut. Granted, once the boys go home to train, we expect to see many more cross that line (thanks to Mamma's cookin').
TD Makers - Based on the stats, only Tre'Quan Smith and Brady have exceptional TD production, needing less than 5 receptions to generate a touchdown.
Where are the Big Names? - Remember, ROI is a measure of efficiency and so, we will uncover a lot of names who don't get a lot of publicity. Some of the biggest Draft names didn't make the top 20 either because they haven't haven't spent 4 years in school or just didn't make the cut.

Next week we will highlight the final regular season wrap up for all four divisions in NCAA.

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Thursday, November 16, 2017

Week 11 NCAA Football Wide Receiver Return On Investment Update

Two Regular Season Weeks Remaining!

In two weeks we will have Conference Championships, then Bowl season which will be our last looks at prospective players for NFL Draft 2018. We have been faithfully tracking Wide Receiver efficiency measured through ROI for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III.

FBS

Top Gun - Returning as the #1 position is Sergio Bailey II of EMU who has an ROI of 39.8% which is 137% better than than the average WR.
Furious Four - Top four remain unchanged while former ND transfer Guyton jumps up from #10 to round out the five.
Double Take - Two schools have 2 players in this week's Top 20: Oklahoma State (Washington and Ateman) and East Carolina (Grayson and Brown).
Fresh, Man - The loan newbie to the list is Corey Willis at #8; Willis, a dual threat HS QB who lead Holland (MI) HS to a district championship. Also participated in basketball and track where he set records in the long jump and hurdles. He transitioned nicely to WR to earn 2nd Team MAC honors and was CMU's offensive MVP.
No Accident - Cedrick Wilson, James Washington and Tyre Brady have been on our Top 20 list each week since week 3 of the season. They have been consistent performers for their teams and the keen scout should take notice of that on their scorecards.
The average Rec/TD ratio for FBS WR in Week 11 is 12.0; only two of 20 WR had worse than average ratios. The best of the top 20 is Corey Willis at 1 TD for each 4.9 Receptions. The only qualifying player with a better ratio is Braxton Berrios of Miami (FL) who is at 1 TD every 4.8 Receptions...close.

FCS

Can You Keep Up? - FCS has fewer than 20 qualifying WRs with above average ROI so they only have 15 posted above.

Musical Chairs - Lots of movement in the ranks since the last posted list although Gandy remains #1 for the FCS.

Welcome Aboard - three newbies: Christian Gibbs, Brandon Cox (2x All State [AR] former of Arkansas St.) and Steffon Hill.

Here are the DII and DIII listings:

Division II

Division III

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Thursday, November 9, 2017

Under the Microscope - Top 10 QBs based on Passing Metrics

So Many QBs, So Little Time

With the season winding down, the reality of the 2018 NFL Player Draft is rapidly slapping its fans in the face. As players show us who they are, the season long debate will rage on as it has in years past: Who are the "franchise" quarterbacks in this draft?

I have no idea.

But one thing I can do is share some of the preliminary analysis I've done to sift through all the noise to zero in on additional prospects to consider. Whomever your "Big Three" are, they will certainly be picked apart like a turkey dinner at the Klumps. But beyond them, there are, by my reckoning, at least 54 QBs who are either seniors or who media outlets expect to declare for the draft. That number does not include all draft eligible players in FBS or senior QBs in any of the other NCAA divisions!

To be sure, inclusion in the list to follow is not indication of a favorable opinion of any particular QB prospect listed, but simply shows that, based on certain criteria, a QB jumps to the front of the line in terms of earning a much closer look.

Dat's How Da Numbaz Go...

QBs were ranked based on the following:

Comp % - Pass Completion percentage (Completions to Total Attempts)
TD:INT - Touchdown to Interception ratio
ATT:TD - Attempts to Touchdown ratio
INC INT % - Interceptions to Total Incomplete Pass percentage
Yds/Comp - Yards per completion
Rank indicates where the player is ranked compared to other draft eligible QBs for this survey.
Overall Rank indicates player position relative to all 129 QBs in the statistical analysis.

I've already started watching Logan Woodside and I have no idea how the kid does it. The height will be scrutinized until he gets officially measured but he knows how to play the game.
The first 5 on the list are listed on their school's website (hardly official) at no taller than 6'2". Mason Rudolph is the only member of the Top 10 taller than 6'3".
I've also started looking at Andrew Ford, a tough 2x All-State (PA) player in HS who was the 2013 Gatorade Player of the year in his state. Started at VA Tech, went on to Lackawanna JUCO before settling at UMass.
If the measurements hold up at the combine, Baker Mayfield is actually is more massive than Barrett or Rudolph based on weight/height.
Do yourself a favor and, before you look at John Wolford's game videos, just watch a couple of his interviews. He appears really focused and has a quiet cool about him. Limited viewing so far is very, very positive.

The Elephant in the Room

OK, you want to know about the other big names, how did they rank out on this list?

Josh Rosen - UCLA ended up #27 on the list and #46 out of all 129 starting QBs with significant time this year.
Sam Darnold of USC - #31 on the list and #58 overall.
Lamar Jackson of Louisville placed #19 on the list and #30 overall.
Josh Allen of Wyoming placed at QB39 and overall, #78.

Obviously, these ratings are not meaningful in and of themselves in terms of selecting a solid quarterback based on these metrics alone. However I believe it has successfully separated some prospects who, based on their metrics, warrant a closer look.

Superlatives

Completion Percentage: Highest - Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 71.7%; Lowest - Kwadra Griggs, Southern Miss. at 52.4%. (Average was 60.0%.)

TD:INT Ratio: Highest: Logan Woodside: 9.50 (19 TDs vs 2 INTs); Lowest - Darell Garretson, Oregon State at 0.33 (1 TD vs 3 INTs). (Average was 2.67.)

ATT:TD Ratio: Highest - Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma scores a TD ever 9.7 passing attempts; Lowest - Darell Garretson, Oregon State 1 TD every 136.0 attempts. (Average was 22.3.)

INC INT %: Lowest - Marcus McMaryion, Fresno State only 1.6% of his Incomplete Passes were INTs; Highest Ken Postma, Houston had 10.7% of his incomplete passes end up as INTs. (Average was 6.27%)

Yards/Completion: Highest - Jesse Ertz, Kansas State had an average of 16.91 yards per completion; Lowest - Kent Myers, Utah State had an average of 10.03 yards per completion. (Average was 12.52.)

We will revisit this exercise at the end of the regular season to consider any other players who merit review who might otherwise have been missed without screening metrics.

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Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Week 10 FBS Update - CFB WR Return on Investment

We're in the Home Stretch!

Just a few weeks left of the 2017-18 college football regular season and we have a surprising about of activity in our Top 20 list of wide receivers based on Return on Investment efficiency.

Football Bowl Subdivision

Wide Receivers in the top 150 players in terms of receiving yards through Week 10 who are also at least four years out of high school were eligible for inclusion in the list.
The metrics are based on calculations using statistics from the top 150 players in terms of receiving yards.

Top of the World, Ma! - Sergio Bailey II went from #12 overall to #1, with ROI of 37.4% which indicates he was 123% more productivity than the average WR in the survey. He balled out against Ball St. with 2 receptions for 110 yards compared to the team's 15 receptions for 263 yards, deposing the former #1...

Weah Did You Go?! - Bad pun notwithstanding, last week's former #1 ROI WR Jester Weah totally disappeared from the list this week because his total reception count fell below the statistical minimum (within 1 standard deviation of average) with Pitt having a bye week. Not his fault at all.

Not Going Anywhere - The Big Three in terms of ROI remain on the list for the 8th consecutive week: Cedrick Wilson, James Washington and Tyre Brady. We'll see if any of them can go wire to wire like Josh Reynolds did last year.

First Timers - A lot of activity this week with 6 new names to the list:

Trevon Brown - After some early issues at ECU, hopefully, he's settled in and will be able to showcase his talents. He has another year of eligibility so perhaps he returns for a 5th year.
Adonis Jennings - 1st Team All State Timber Creek HS (NJ); State Track champion in 4X100. Transferred to Temple after seeing limited action his freshman year at Pitt.
John Ursua - A sophomore who spend two years before school on his Mormon mission and is in his 4th year out of High School. Unfortunately he suffered a season ending injury vs SJSU.
Ka'Raun White - Suffered an injury senior year in high schoo and went the JUCO route via Lackawanna College. Transferred to family school WVU where his older bro Kevin played and his younger bro Kyzir enrolled in 2016.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling - Former NC State WR played as a freshman then sat out over the insane NCAA transfer rule. MVS has already graduated and is working on his master's with another year of eligibility. It will be interesting to see what he decides to do.
Anthony Johnson - No matter what, AJ will be in NFL stadiums on Sundays after he graduates - if he doesn't go pro, he will be watching one of his 3 cousins in the league, including former #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. Having twice transferred, Johnson is having a nice season with over 1,000 yards in 10 games so far.

Ones to Watch

Look for Jester Weah to return to the list after a bye week as Pitt hosts UNC which is 87th in Passing Defense coming into the Thursday Night game.
Cedrick Wilson should continue to feast going up against Colorado State, 104th in passing D.
Also look for UNLV's Devonte Boyd to finally make the list as they host BYU's 84th ranked Passing Defense.

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Friday, November 3, 2017

Week 9 Updated WR Return on Investment for FBS, FCS, DII and DIII

The Field is Narrowing

October is in the books and we start looking toward playoffs with only a few weeks left in the season. The field is narrowing in terms of teams likely to get invited to vie for the championship. It is also narrowing for wide receivers performing with such high levels of efficiency as to make the Top 20 Return on Investment list. Turnover in each list (that is, new members coming on and old members dropping off) has slowed and fewer first time names. This ranking does not denote the members are the "best" receivers, but just shows they are highly efficient which is an indication they are likely doing something right. Not all highly efficient receivers have the overall make-up to be NFL level players, but a good number have made their way to training camp despite being relatively unknown. ROI attempts to uncover more guys like that.

FBS

Same Ol' Same Old - The top four are the same as they have been over the last 3 weeks with Weah, Owens, Wilson and Washington in some variation of that order.
Welcome Home - Trent Sherfield and Chris Murray both returned to the list after brief absences. Nice to see you back, boys!
New Comers - Jalen Guyton, a former ND transfer succeeded at the highest level in Texas HS football. Marcell Ateman overcame injury to emerge as a true threat opposite #4 on our list.
Touchdown Hawks - The average Reception/TD ratio over the top 150 WRs (based on reception yards) is 12.3; only 3 players have a sub-par rate thus far with New Mexico St. WR Jaleel Scott leading the Top 20 ROI list with 1 TD every 4.5 receptions.
Another One Bites the Dust - And then there were three...Vic Wharton III slipped from the list, leaving Cedrick Wilson, James Washington and Tyre Brady as receivers included on each Top 20 list this year (they have been issued since Week 3).

FCS

Pugh who? - Last week's #1 Bob Pugh of Indiana State could not make the list this week as he he did not have enough total receptions to qualify so Jordon Gandy moves up to the top spot. Jordon produced 67.7% more yards than his pro rata share of receptions.
The Byrd is the Word - FCS got one newcomer to the list with Dontez Byrd, a Louisville transfer who also excelled at basketball in High School. The 5'11" wide out immediately established himself in his first year at TT by breaking school records in his inaugural season with 933 yards (at 829 yards through 8 games, he is likely to break his own record).
Unlucky? - With only 13 seniors posting above average, ROI, it looks like there are fewer "sleeper" candidates this year in FCS, but solid film study will hopefully sift out hidden gems at the WR position.

Here are the top lists for DII and DIII.

Division II

Division III

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Week 8 Updated FCS, Division II and Division III Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency Rankings

NCAA is More than Just FBS

Over the last two weeks I introduced ROI rankings for FCS, DII and DII to go along with the weekly FBS rankings. From here on out, ROI efficiency rankings for each of the 4 components of NCAA will be profiled weekly.

What is Return on Investment?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities. The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI. And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.

There are two components to ROI:

Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.

QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance.

The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities.

The numbers discussed until after the end of the season will not include the target/reception ratio as target figures are easier to compile at the end of the season than weekly. (I have only so much time...)

This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro. Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect. ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names. Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list. The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research.

For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.

Here are the updated tables for the week ending 10/21/17:

FCS

Notes

Bob Pugh is a straight beast. All-State our of Foley HS (AL), went JUCO and was All-American as receiver and return man at Highland CC. So far this year, he has more than double the yards he had all last season with only four more receptions. His coach at Indiana State doesn't have much to say about him, though.

Daurice Fountain is about his business. He grew up in the college town of Madison, Wisconsin where he was an All-State WR out of James Madison Memorial (WI) also taking All-State honors in Track, capturing the state championships in the 110 hurdles and the long jump. He also found time for basketball, taking conference honors there, as well. Despite being from a serious college town, Fountain went to UNI where he saw limited action as true freshman. But in his next two years, he led UNI in receiving; thus far he is number 1 so far this season.. Yet another not very impressed coach here.

There FCS average ROI was 21.6% and so the top ROIs above is limited to WRs who produced better than average results.

Division II

Notes

One thing about working in the sister divisions to FBS, it is not easy to find press data about some of the players so thank you in advance for understanding.
Another New #1 in Gary McKnight who did not qualify last week (his receptions were not within 1 Standard Deviation of the DII average). All-State WR our of MacArthur, Lawton (OK) which won the state championship in 2012. Team MVP. Led NE State in recs, rec yards and TDs last year, on pace to do the same
D'Angelo Bowie is new to the list from Western New Mexico. He Transferred from Grossmont College and took a redshirt in 2015 at Western NM. After a quiet 2016 season, he leads the team in receiving in 2017.

Division III

And finally, Division III:

Notes

Brandon Ehkre dropped in to the #1 spot without having previously been on the Top ROI list. An All-State WR out of Deerfield HS (WI) with at least all-conference honors in basketball and baseball, Ehkre also currently plays for the Carroll basketball team. Details are sketchy but it seems as though this, his senior year, is his first year of college football (!). With 24% of teams receptions and 40% of team reception yards, his avg efficiency ratio garners him 67% more yards pro rata, good enough to debute in the #1 spot.
Brad Garcia was touted by teammate Koree Reed as a straight beast and based on what I've read, he's right. Have a seat and check this out: A three sport athlete (football, basketball and baseball) out of Warwick Valley HS (NY). He was 3x FIRST TEAM All-State. In his senior year he led the state in rushing totaling 2,549 yards and 27 TDs with two 400+ yard rushing games...as a QB. (Breathe) College: Freshman year he was 3rd in the NCAA (the entire thing) in term s of yards per rec. Sophomore year? Hey, how about being named an All-American with 1,382 yards and 14 TDs. Junior year reached 1,000+ yards for 2nd straight year. So far, has a statline of 36/726/11 (leading the team with TDs) so with 2 games to go he needs 274 to hit 1,000 for a third year.

Looking forward to this coming weekend's action!

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