Who? Potential Breakout WRs for FBS 2017

Death, Taxes and College Football

Of the three things I know will eventually come, I look forward to only one. The 2017 college football season is almost upon us.  Last season we saw possibly one of the "deepest" wide receiver classes in recent memory.  While this year's class is full of potential, the real trick is identifying "under the radar" talent early.  So who are the top potential "Breakout" candidates for the coming season?

How Do You Define "Breakout"?

A breakout player in this case would be (1) eligible for the 2018 NFL Player Draft, (2) collected greater than 40 receptions in the 2016 season (which is within 1 Standard Deviation of the average reception total of the top 150 in terms of receiving yards) and (3) did not lead his team in receiving yards in 2016.  And, of course, player rankings are based on their Return on Investment (ROI) efficiency score using the average of Raw ROI and QB adjusted ROI (a quick and easy way to account for differences in QB quality when you just don't want to sift through hundreds of  game play-by-play pdf documents counting receiver targets (which ain't easy, I assure you).  So, here we go:

5. Steven Dunbar: Houston, Senior 6'3" 202 lbs 51 recs 669 rec yards 5 TDs

Everyone loves a winner and Dunbar's Rummel HS (Metarie, LA) won back to back state titles and also was part of the basketball team that made a run for the state title (love the multi-sport athletes). With that resume, you'd expect to see Dunbar at a more recognizable school but he had made up his mind to attend Houston in his Junior year and the other schools were just out of luck.   Last year at Houston, Dunbar had the benefit of QB Greg Ward Jr, now of the NFL, who had above average accuracy based on his above average completion percentage.  Former 5 star QB Kyle Allen transferred from across the state after an underwhelming (if that's a word) career at Manziel University (aka Texas A&M) where he helped contribute to a putrid passing game that was about 13% less accurate then average (only one other school in this analysis was worse). The return of the entire starting offensive line shouldn't hurt. The return of last year's number 1 WR Linell Bonner III might. If players buy what new coach Longhorn legend Major Applewhite is selling, Dunbar could be the "out of nowhere" guy everyone is talking about come next year's draft.  

4. Jordan Lasley: UCLA, Redshirt Junior 6'1" 201 lbs 41 recs 620 rec yards 5 TDs

SoCal Lasley (Serra High - Gardena, CA) has the envious position of having a chip on his shoulder QB returning to show the world in Josh Rosen, who will have 4 of 5 starting linemen returning. Lasley, himself, took a redshirt his first year and was used sparingly his sophomore year leading up to his breakout 2016 season when he was second in terms of receiving yards and led the team with 5 TD receptions.  Lasley is an honor roll student who can win using his head but also has the confidence and swag required to play the game.  Should be an interesting year for him. Due to Rosen's injury, Lasley had some of the most inconsistent QB play of qualifying WRs for this study (his QBs completion percentage was almost 10% worse than average) so consistency from "The Rosen One" could go a long way for Lasley.

3. Keke Coutee: Texas Tech, Junior 5'11" 173 lbs 55 recs 890 rec yards 7 TDs

Some receivers get a bad rep for avoiding contact...Coutee is not one of them.  But watch his HS highlight reel and you will see that he definitely doesn't like getting his uniform dirty - he doesn't get caught and tackled by defenders until after the 2 minute mark!  "Clean" Coutee had the breakout year he was looking for with over 1,000 all purpose yards.  He is shifty and tenacious but his fortune depends on if the gaping hole left by first round pick Pat Mahomes II can be filled by Iowa transfer Nic Shimonek (the Nic-ster is a former finalist for Texas player of the year in high school so, yeah, there's probably upside).  Clean Coutee was second in team receiving yards only to Jonathon Giles who transferred to LSU (and wanted out so much, apparently, he will sit out a year) so he has that going for him.  Which is good.

2. Cedrick Wilson: Boise State, Senior 6'3" 188 lbs 50 recs 1041 rec yards 10 TDs

Anyone who watches this space knows two things give me great joy in a prospect: (1) Pedigree kids -Cedrick's dad, Cedrick Sr. spent 7 seasons in the NFL, earning a Super Bowl ring with the Steelers in 2005 and  (2) Converted High School QBs - Wilson as an All State (TN) QB having led his White Station (TN) team to the state semifinals as a senior. What other player on the team knows what everyone else is supposed to be doing other than the QB?  With largely unsung WR Thomas Sperbeck graduated, Brett Rypien will be leaning heavily on Wilson as his go to receiver.   Wilson also  had a nose for the goal line  having a Rec/TD ratio of 5.0x, far more productive than the sample average 11.7x (the top ratio was 3.5x, for reference).   One year after transferring from Coffeyville CC (KS), Wilson is the #1 WR and has been elected a team captain.  He exudes leadership and poise. We will see if he can capitalize in this position.

1.  Jamire Jordan:  Fresno State,  Redshirt Sophomore 5'10" 173 45 recs 713 rec yards 2 TDs

After notching a single victory the entire season (against an FCS opponent) Fresno State hired new head coach Jeff Tedford to turn the program around. Receiver and return specialist Jordan ( over 1,000 all purpose yards in 2016) could be a big part of that plan.  Another feather in his cap is Fresno State had the worst QB performance in the survey (greater than 16% worse completion % than average) so it can't get any worse, right?  Jordan was not actively recruited outside of his native West Coast (with some mountain states in the mix) with interest from Washington and Utah.  If Jordan can play with any sort of chip on his shoulder, that couldn't hurt his chance to stand out despite playing for a non-Power 5 school on the West Coast.  Leading receiver KeeSean Johnson is also returning so we will really see how big of a chip Jordan carries on his shoulder.

 

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