NY Jets Offensive Line vs. LA Rams Week 15

 By the Numbers

The NY Jets offensive line has been, at times, quite offensive based on some of the social media commentary out there.  But for the offensive line position where so much is happening at once, how do you gauge who is responsible for lapses in protection?  

Using the all 22 coaches view provided by NFL Gameplan, I looked at each NYJ offensive play from their game against the LA Rams and graded each lineman as follows:

3 Points: Above and beyond

2 Points:  Did his job (base score).

1 Points: Allowed a pressure or was grossly outplayed.

0 Points: His man made the tackle, had a pass defended, or hit or sacked the QB.

The base score is 2/2 so a score of 100% means the lineman performed his job which is what we would expect.  If he were to perform above and beyond expectations on all plays he would have a maximum score of 150%.

How Did They Do?

Quarters do not average to the Total Score because each quarter has a different number of plays. 

• Becton ended up with 98%.  He had a couple of plays he would like to take back  in the third quarter including a sack given up but he made up a point by having the only "3 point" play of the game.  No surprise here - he was the best man out there for the Jets.
• Elflein has been much maligned and he had a really rough Q2 losing 4 points on 3 plays.  The toughest part of it is he was tripped by his own teammates on two plays.  Notwithstanding, he was second best on the OL based on his play by play performance.
• McGovern came in third with 91% despite a perfect score in Q3 given his other quarters were in the 80's.  He had one unscored play because even though his man made the tackle, the defensive stunt design was so brilliant, I don't think anyone could have defensed it. 
• Fant was fourth with 90% with quarterly scores ranging from 82% to 100% .  If we could have 100% Fant more often it would be nice.
• No surprise but Andrews is fifth at 85% with a couple of 75% quarters in there.  

The Source

For the source worksheet with play by play scores, check out this link NYJ OLine Week 15 v LAR.xlsx  for more details and comments explaining sub par scores. 

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Other Posts To Read

The Nut Doesn't Fall Far from the Coaching Tree - Looking at the lineages of some of the NFL head coaching prospects for 2021.  Boombear's College Football Analysis: Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

ADP and Wins - How much does draft position of starting players correlate to wins?  Let's look at a small sample to see what we can find. Boombear's College Football Analysis: Correlation Between ADP and Team Win Percentage (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

Tanking for Trevor - Everyone wants the highest drafted players but how often do those players lead their teams to Super Bowls?  We have you covered right here!  Boombear's College Football Analysis: Tanking for Trevor (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

Tanking for Trevor

The NFL season is winding down and that can only mean one thing for the teams who have been out of legit playoff contention since Turkey Day...looking forward to the NFL draft.  

When the NY Jets did the unthinkable by winning a game, they moved out of the top draft spot.  Many fans have voiced concerns that losing the top would plunge the team into a worse state than they have currently found themselves. 

Of course the 1st pick gives a team the most flexibility but to assume a particular team cannot win without the top slot is a bit of a stretch.

Below is a look at the Quarterbacks who have started the last 20 Super Bowls. 

Of the 24 individuals who started Super Bowl games they had an average draft position of 64.6. 

For QBs who started multiple SBs, the ADP is 81.2. If we take out the Manning boys, both #1 picks it shoots up to 121 thanks to Brady and Warner (who, as an UDFA was assigned the spot after the last pick of his draft).

Of starters of all 40 SBs, the ADP is 82.1. Exclude Brady and his 9 appearances and it is still a late 2nd round 54.8.

Point being, you don't need a #1 overall QB to get to the big game.

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Other Posts To Read

The Nut Doesn't Fall Far from the Coaching Tree - Looking at the lineages of some of the NFL head coaching prospects for 2021. Boombear's College Football Analysis: Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

ADP and Wins - How much does draft position of starting players correlate to wins? Let's look at a small sample to see what we can find. Boombear's College Football Analysis: Correlation Between ADP and Team Win Percentage (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

NY Jets vs. Seattle - A Few Plays Typifying What Went Wrong

 Taking a look at a few plays where the Jets really showed why they are 0-13.

Correlation Between ADP and Team Win Percentage

Pickin' Winners

I recently took a look the average draft position of starting NFL players to see how much draft position really matters. To start, I took the most recent depth charts for each team per Ourlads.com and calculated the Average Draft Position (ADP) on a team and position basis.  In cases of major player injury, I assumed the draft slot of the player with the most snaps taken during the season to date. While (say it with me) correlation does not equal causation, there is plenty of food for thought.

Team Data

As you can see from the able above, there is no material correlation between draft position and win percentage with the exception of Defensive Tackle which has what could be considered a moderate correlation based on the data.   However, looking at overall correlation to the ADP for each team and then broken out by Offense and Defense, we find no ties.

Winners and Losers

When we breakout the numbers between teams with winning records and those with losing records, the picture is a bit different.

Results: Assuming 0.70+ is a strong correlation, selecting cornerbacks who were high draft picks seems to have an impact on win percentage.

Winners:  Winners have starting CBs with ADP of 2.97 however, correlation between CB ADP and win percentage is -0.75 meaning the relation is the lower the CB’s draft position the better the win percentage.

Losers:  The correlation in this case is based on losing record so the higher the draft pick the worse the win percentage, so the 0.71 correlation.

Based on the above, it could be that higher drafted CBs are not necessarily a driving factor in win/loss performance.  So, perhaps teams should curb the impulse to looks at better ADP CB selections.

Other factors:

Tight Ends:  Although TEs have an ADP of 4.27 for winning teams, there is a moderate correlation of 0.61 between win percentage and better ADP TEs.  This could be indicative of their being a shortage of difference making TEs so if teams cannot grab the top talent, they need not rush to fill a TE roster slot because the average ADP is in the second half of the draft anyway.

Defensive Tackle:  While the correlation is not as strong as that for TEs, at 0.49 for winners and 0.46 for losers, we see somewhat of a relationship between this position and win percentage. Winners pick up DTs with ADP of 2.77 while losing teams don’t quite value the position with ADP of 4.18.

Conclusion:  Cornerback is the most overvalued opposition and teams should consider that higher drafted CBs tend to result in lower win percentage based on the sample data here. This supports a prior analysis (found here) that found losing teams tend to overpay/overvalue CBs from a salary perspective.

Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees

Coaching Carousel About to Take Off 

With three NFL head coaches out the door so far this season at Houston, Atlanta and Detroit, there will be a lot of buzz regarding potential replacement candidates from the pro and college ranks.  One thing that is certain, there are many candidates being discussed who will be under the microscope this off season to replace HC posts for the three teams mentioned above as well as any others who will be in the market for the 2021 season.

Like any profession, success in the NFL is largely predicated on preparation.  While you would expect every coach to understand the fundamentals of his/her role on the coaching staff, the difference in success appears to be "grooming".  When you take a look at the last 20 years of Super Bowl coaches, nearly all have been underlings or associates of groundbreaking or legendary coaches (it's hard to see who was the biggest influence in Super Bowl 43 coach Ken Whisenhunt's football philosophy and it seems Super Bowl 36 coach Mike Martz may have been a self taught genius).  

Overall, this next crop of coaches being discussed have impressive lineages.  Browsing online lists of potential coaches mentioned for this next NFL cycle, here are some of the most frequently listed names and their coaching affiliations:

Eric Bieniemy - Kansas City Offensive Coordinator  

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: RB Coach at UCLA - 3 years
• Pro: Assistant Head Coach at Minnesota - 1 year
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 2 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 13 years
• Impactful Coaches - Andy Reid, Brad Childress
• Lineage - Bill Walsh -Mike Holmgren - Andy Reid

Thoughts:  Bieniemy entered the Bill Walsh family when Andy Reid reached out to groom his former player.  I like the lineage and the weight an experienced veteran player in the league can have with current players who immediately know Bieniemy can relate to their situation.  For all the good, he had three really, really stupid incidents when he was younger (all before he was 25) one of which led to his arrest and one year banishment from his alma mater.  Just plain stupid.  He's over 50 now so while some may want to bring it up as a strike against hiring him, those incidents are long in the past.  

Lincoln Riley - University of Oklahoma Head Coach

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Head Coach at Oklahoma - 4 year
• Pro: N/A
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 11 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
• Impactful Coaches - Mike Leach
• Lineage - Hal Mumme - Mike Leach

Thoughts: Air Raid through and through, Riley played for Mike Leach before working under him prior to moving over to East Carolina to work with Mike Leach disciple Ruffin McNeill.  It would be interesting to see if he can join former TTU teammate Kliff Kingsbury as another college Air Raid coach gone to the NFL.  His success cannot be denied (43-8 record with 3 invitations to the National Championship Tournament), it would be great to see him run an entire college program that was not blue chip to see how much he can do with less than elite talent year in and year out.  He's young enough to be able to revert back to college if he finds the pro game is not his cup of tea. 

Arthur Smith - Tennessee Titans Offensive Coordinator

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Defensive Intern at Ole Miss - 1 year
• Pro: Offensive Coordinator at Tennessee - 3 years
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 5 years
• Impactful Coaches - Mike Mularkey
• Lineage - Marty Schottenheimer - Bill Cowher - Mike Mularkey

Thoughts: TEN went from 27th in Points Scored per Game in 2018 to 10th in 2019 to 3rd so far in 2020.   Smith was an offensive lineman at UNC.  His path into the league was paved when he got a Defensive Quality Control assistant job with Washington Football Team, which his dad, Fred, founder of FedEx owned 10% at the time.  Not sure if FedEx  being headquartered in Tennessee had anything to do with his next gig with the Titans but HC Mike Munchak brought him on in 2011 to serve the same role he did for WAS.  Smith was retained over three coaching changes from Munchack to Ken Whisenhunt to Mike Mularkey to current HC Mike Vrabel in 2018, promoted to OC in 2019.  The team has clearly performed but I would love to see him succeed with a different organization (one not owned by his father or in a state where his father has great sway) just to confirm what we see.

Matt Campbell - Iowa State University Head Coach

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Head Coach Toledo and Iowa State - 10 years combined
• Pro: N/A
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 16 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
• Impactful Coaches - Larry Kehres
• Lineage - Woody Hayes - Doyt Perry - Larry Kehres

Thoughts: The biggest concern about a college coach with no NFL experience is the game in college is largely won and lost when it comes to the talent advantage gained from the recruitment process.  Matt Campbell's entire career has been at locations that have won without a material talent advantage at Division III Mount Union (as a player and coach), small conference Toledo and baby Big 12 member Iowa State. His mentor coach Larry Kehres  has a winning percentage of .929 (332-24-3)  which will likely never be topped showing dominance at the DIII level where the talent gap is imperceptible.  Campbell models his programs' operating procedures and practices after Kehres' model which was influenced by College Football Hall of Fame coaches Woody  Hayes and Doyt Perry.  He is so steeped in the college culture I would be surprised if he made the jump now but you never know.

Brian Daboll - Offensive Coordinator Buffalo

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Offensive Coordinator at Alabama - 1 year
• Pro: Offensive Coordinator at Buffalo - 3 years
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 year
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 19 years
• Impactful Coaches - Nick Saban, Bill Belichick
• Lineage - Bill Parcells - Bill Belichick 

Thoughts: I am inclined to support him simply because he is a fellow University of Rochester Yellowjacket so I know he's had his share of Garbage Plates at Nick Tahoe's, and, perhaps more important, he's from Welland, ON, which was home of some of Canadian finest live entertainment back in the early '90s.  Our ties notwithstanding, Daboll has the second longest NFL tenor of any candidate reviewed here (after Roman, below) and cut his coaching teeth on organizational principles of Nick Saban (as a Michigan State Graduate Assistant in 1998 and 1999) before spending 7 years with Belichick in his first pro coaching gig.  After almost two decades of learning, it may be time for Daboll to finally run the show.  Meliora!

Greg Roman Offensive Coordinator Baltimore

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: N/A
• Pro: Assistant Head Coach at Baltimore  - 1 year
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 23 years
• Impactful Coaches - Dom Capers, Jim Harbaugh
• Lineage - (1) Woody Hayes - Bo Schembechler- Jim Harbaugh; (2) Doyt Perry - Jack Harbaugh - Jim Harbaugh

Thoughts: Roman came up the hard way in the NFL, through an unpaid position with Carolina the year they began as an expansion team.  After a couple of gigs with the Texans and Ravens, he took a job at his former high school for a year before Jim Harbaugh lured him to be part of his staff at Stanford where he won the Broyles Award. We credit him with dual lineages through Jim Harbaugh who was influenced by his college coach Bo Schembechler as well as his father,  Jack, who was an assistant of Hall of Famer Doyt Perry. Having been a position level coach or better for 23 years, what does it say about Roman that he hasn't had his own team yet (especially given him pedigree)? Not sure, but he may have his chance soon. 

Joe Brady - Offensive Coordinator Carolina

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Passing Game Coordinator at LSU - 1 year
• Pro: Offensive Coordinator Carolina - 1 year
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 year
• Impactful Coaches - Sean Payton
• Lineage -Unclear if any. 

Thoughts:  I have not looked at Brady in great detail but I did witness the change in Joe Burrow from Year 1 at LSU to Year 2 where he took them to the National Championship. Granted, looking at Burrow's high school achievements he had 4,500 passing yards and 63 touchdowns...in just his SENIOR YEAR, I was expecting him to blow up once he arrived at Baton Rouge.  Given the short body of work Brady has it would not be considered unreasonable if he has a hard time finding an owner willing to hand over the reins. If he doesn't get a shot this year at a top job, he's young and in a great position to be in consideration in the future. 

Raheem Morris - Interim Head Coach Atlanta

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Defensive Coordinator at Kansas State - 1 year
• Pro: Head Coach at Tampa Bay- 3 years (Current Interim HC at Atlanta)
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 year
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 14 years
• Impactful Coaches - John Gruden
• Lineage - Bill Walsh - Mike Holmgren - John Gruden

Thoughts: The only one on this list who has already been a head coach in the NFL...twice.  Not much more to be said.  Per interviews, his operational practices and policies were greatly influenced by Gruden.  Perhaps Arthur Blank feels like it's cheaper to keep Morris in place as HC going forward especially since Atlanta seems to have responded to the coaching change playing more competitive football going 4-3 (with 2 losses to playoff contender New Orleans). 

Dabo Sweeney - Clemson University Head Coach

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Head Coach at Clemson - 12 years
• Pro: N/A
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 13 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
• Impactful Coaches - Gene Stallings
• Lineage - Bear Bryant - Gene Stallings 

Thoughts: The guy is Bama through and through.  Played at Bama.  Coached by "Junction Boy" Gene Stallings,  a direct disciple of legendary Bama coach Bear Bryant.  He even got his first job at Clemson through his former position coach at Alabama.  The man has won since he got in the big seat with a record of 139-32 at Clemson.  One concern is, as a coach from a top college program you see them take advantage of the recruiting strength they have which, of course, will not translate into the NFL where there is deliberate parity.  The college life is so sweet and he already makes more than all NFL coaches except Belichick, Carroll, Gruden and Payton so not sure if he has any real reason to move.  

Mike LaFleur - San Francisco Passing Game Coordinator

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Offensive Coordinator at St. Joseph's - 2 years
• Pro: Passing Game Coordinator at San Francisco - 2 years
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 3 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 4 years
• Impactful Coaches - Kyle Shanahan
• Lineage - Tom Landry - Dan Reeves - Mike Shanahan -Gary Kubiak - Kyle Shanahan 

Thoughts: His last college Offensive Coordinator experience was 2013 at FCS Davidson where the team was 0-11 and was outscored 445-154.  After that performance he got his first pro gig as an intern with the Browns under Kyle Shanahan.  He would go on to stick with Shanahan as he moved to the Falcons and eventually became the Passing Game Coordinator for the 49'ers.  How does a guy go from being dead last in FCS to the PGC in the Super Bowl? It might be impacted by the personal relationship Shanahan has with Mike's brother Matt LaFleur.  Regardless of how he got into the league, he will continue to make the most of his opportunities. 

Pat Fitzgerald - Northwestern University Head Coach

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Head Coach at  Northwestern - 15 years
• Pro: N/A
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 15 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
• Impactful Coaches - Ron Vanderlinden
• Lineage - Woody Hayes - Bo Schembechler - Ron Vanderlinden

Thoughts: Clearly great lineage.  Obviously took a team with a huge talent disadvantage and won in a major conference with a record of 104-80 however, excluding the COVID season, he is 12-32 against ranked opponents and is 1-14 against Ohio State and Michigan over his tenure (only win coming vs. Michigan in 2008).  He's stated previously he has his dream job in being HC at his alma mater not far from where he grew up so it seems he's in a good place for now.  

Todd Monken - University of Georgia Offensive Coordinator 

• Highest Positions Attained
• College: Head Coach Southern Mississippi - 3 years
• Pro: Offensive Coordinator 4 years (total between Tampa Bay and Cleveland)
• Experience
• College Coordinator or Head Coach - 13 years
• Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 4 years
• Impactful Coaches - Tom Beck; Les Miles
• Lineage - Woody Hayes - Bo Schembechler - Les Miles 

Thoughts: He's quite a rolling stone, having worked for 5 different organizations over the last 10 years across college and the pros.  At Georgia, they are #47 in Passing TDs (compared to 40 last year) and #72 in rushing TDs (compared to #73 last year) in FBS this season.  From 2016-2018 at Tampa Bay, his offenses were 19th, 19th and 12th respectively in terms of points per game. From there he took the 2019 Browns to 20.9 in points per game (22nd in the league) from 22.4 the prior year (20th).  He would have a lot of former colleagues to recruit in building a staff but given he's bounced around, would anyone risk going with him?

The options above are just a few of the names being bandied around for NFL head coaching jobs.  While there are many factors that go into getting an offer, coaches who can tie their methods back to legendary football leaders should exploit those relationships.  

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Other articles:

How successful have college coaches been in making the jump to the NFL?  Glad you asked!  Check out this article.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

Cornerbacks are critical but you don't see much analysis on the position - until now!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/12/nfl-cornerback-analysis-using-attack.html

Back for a 5th year, it's NCAA Wide Receiver efficiency measured by Return on Investment.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/11/ncaa-wide-receiver-efficiency-by-roi.html

NYJ: A Changing of the Guard?

 This offseason, the Jets focused on patching up the offensive line bringing in several veterans for what amounts to 1 year auditions.  With the Left Tackle position locked up with rookie sensation Mekhi Becton and Center Connor McGovern locked up through the 2021 season, the guard positions are clearly up for grabs.

While the Jets cap situation puts them in prime position to compete for some of the big name free agent guards like Brandon Schreff and Joe Thuney, Jets 2020 acquisitions Greg Van Roten and Pat Elflein have an opportunity to claim one of the guard spots for the foreseeable future. 

Van Roten or "GVR" as he is called, is an Ivy League product out of U Penn.  An undrafted free agent picked up by Green Bay in 2012, he played sparingly on special teams his first 2 years at Green Bay before he was released in 2014,  bounced around between the NFL and CFL until Carolina signed him in 2017. After a year playing special teams he was awarded a starting job in 2018 where he played 100% of offensive snaps. His following year he was active in just 11 games before undergoing season ending surgery related to a toe injury.  This is his first season with the Jets, where he has not missed an offensive snap.

Pat Elflein joined the Jets mid season after being waived by Minnesota which selected him in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft as a standout Center from Ohio State. He had a promising 1st year in which he earned PFWA All Rookie team honors. Unfortunately, he struggled through shoulder and ankle injuries his next two seasons that required surgery. After missing just 4 games over 2018 and 2019, early 2020 thumb surgery put him on injured reserve after which the Vikings released him, a move made easier by the 2019 drafting of Center Garrett Bradbury.

This video takes a look at these two players in their Week 12 game against Miami. It highlights only a handful of plays but it is representative of what you get from each player.

It will be interesting to see how each player performs over the next few weeks especially as Elflein has earned another start after the mysterious disappearance of Alex Lewis from the starting line up. 

Both have an extraordinary opportunity to audition for one of the guard positions for 2021.   I personally would love to see Elflein step up but in this transitional year for the Jets, it's anyone's guess how General Manager Joe Douglas will approach the offensive rebuild.

NFL Cornerback Analysis Using Attack, Battle, Bleed and Burn Ratios through 12/2/20

Corners rated for Week 12!

Your weekly cornerback performance update through Week 12...let's get into it!

As usual, we use the following metrics:

1. Attack Ratio: Total Targets/Total Snaps
2. Battle Ratio: Passes Defended/(Passes Defended + Completions Allowed)
3. Bleed Ratio: Total Reception Yards Allowed/Total Snaps
4. Burn Ratio: ([Total Interceptions +50% of Forced Fumbles]/Total Snaps) minus (Total Touchdowns/Total Snaps)

These are all represented by Z score (the number of standard deviations from the mean).  "4 Score Z" is the average of the four ratios.

Qualifying cut off was 444 snaps though Wednesday night's PIT-BAL game.

Green highlight equals at least 1 standard deviation better than the mean.

Red highlight equals at least 1 standard deviation worse than the mean. 

Teams

Looking at the top 5 teams compared to the cellar dwellers and it's clear the difference is experience.  

• #1 NYG corners Logan and Bradberry average 6.5 years of NFL experience.
• #2 MIA corners Howard, Jones and McCain average 5.7 years in the league.
• #3 IND corners Rhodes and Moore average 6.0 years on the island.
• #32 MIN is breaking in two rookies starting at the corner.
• #30 NYJ are also starting first year men after second year man Bless Austin went on IR.
• #31 SEA is the anomaly with Griffin, Flowers and Dunbar averaging 4.3 years in the league.
• #29 ATL returns to form with Oliver (2nd year man) and Terrell (rookie).

Player Updates

Who's Hot - Attack Ratio

• I have to go back and watch McCain but how is a guy on the field for 690 snaps (qualifying for this analysis was 444) but only targeted 2.0% of the time? Is he flypaper?  
• His Z score of 4.12 is just idiotic.
• White has nothing to be ashamed of at being targeted just 6.3% of his defensive snaps. (But it still looks huge vs. McCain, right?)

Who's Not - Attack Ratio

• They're shelling Kirkpatrick down in ARI, looking his way 12.8% of the time he's on the field.  Ouch!
• That Xavien Howard is dealing with a slight case of overbombing at 11% is not surprising with McCain and Jones (who have a positive Z scores) as the other options. 

Who's Hot - Battle Ratio

• QB Repellent McCain is backing up his insane Attack Z by also having the top Battle Z, defending a third of "won"  passes (completions plus passes defended).
• Despite Xavien Howard being #2 in Battle Z, defending over 30% of won passes, QBs still attack him more than they should (nearly 1 standard deviation more than average).

Who's Not - Battle Ratio

• DAL's Lewis wins on  just 3.0% of qualifying passes. Thankfully, his Attack Z is about par.
• Pride is worse than 1 standard deviation compared to average but doesn't seem like Offensive Coordinators have noticed since he has a strong Attack Z. 

Who's Hot - Bleed Ratio

• McCain, again, is top of the heap, giving up less than 0.15 yards per snap.
• Lewis made the Top 10 so he is not giving up yards despite losing a lot of his contested battles (-1.62 Battle Z).

Who's Not - Bleed Ratio

• Okudah is number one but on the wrong list giving up 1.29 yards for every snap he's out there which, with his Attack worse than negative 1, means OCs are taking advantage.
• Davis is #5 on the Bleed list but at least holds his on in terms of Battle.

Who's Hot -Burn Ratio

• Humphrey tops the list driven by his ability to get at the ball (INTs and Forcing Fumbles) and keep opponents out of the end zone. 
• Despite his solid Burn, Kirkpatrick is still getting shelled by OCs (Attack).  Notwithstanding, he has a  "bend but don't break" strategy, giving up yards but not scores.

Who's Not - Burn Ratio

• Skrine with just one forced fumble and no INTs gave up five TDs which put him at the bottom of the Burn list.  
• McCourty and Herndon are Burn victims but each have top level Attack ratios so OCs may start looking their way more.

Who's Hot - 4 Score 

• Duh.  Topping 3 of 4 lists, obviously McCain has the highest overall average of Attack, Battle, Bleed and Burn.
• Of the top 10, only McCain and Ryan are greater than 1 standard deviation above the mean. 

Who's Not - 4 Score

• The good news for Okudah is, just like wine, corners get better with time.  He has a lot of upside so if he can just drown out the boo birds and endure the trial by fire, the sky is still the limit.
• There are far more guys with more than 2 years experience on this list than I would have expected.  Will have to keep an eye on what is driving their ratios. 

That's it for this week.  Look for the Week 13 update soon.

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If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

My NY Jets had high hopes on the right arm of Sam Darnold.  Although he has gone through a merry go round of coaches, coordinators and GMs in just 3 years, it may be time to move on from him.   Check out my video analysis of his game vs. KC.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/11/week-8-ny-jets-vs-kc-chiefs-video.html

 

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

NFL Cornerback Analysis through Week 11

Cornerback updates through 11/25/20

Back again with an update on cornerback performance through Week 11 using the following metrics:

1. Attack Ratio: Total Targets/Total Snaps
2. Battle Ratio: Passes Defended/(Passes Defended + Completions Allowed)
3. Bleed Ratio: Total Reception Yards Allowed/Total Snaps
4. Burn Ratio: ([Total Interceptions +50% of Forced Fumbles]/Total Snaps) minus (Total Touchdowns/Total Snaps)

Previously, Attack included what is now broken out as the "Battle Ratio" so each represents an equal component in the overall final ranking.

These are all represented by Z score (the number of standard deviations from the mean).

Qualifying cut off was 416 snaps.

Green highlight equals at least 1 standard deviation above the mean.

Red highlight equals at least 1 standard deviation below the mean.

Player Performance

Attack Ratio - Who's Hot?

• Offensive Coordinators throw at Tre'Davious White only 5.6% of the snaps he's on the field. When you look at his better than average Battle and Bleed ratios, it's justified.
• Panther Troy Pride is skating because he is in the Top 10 in terms of Attack ratio but his other metrics indicate below average performance.  Will MIN be able to take advantage of this?

Attack Ratio - Who's Not?

• SEA corners seem to have had the 'Who's Not' spots on lockdown this season and Tre Flowers is doing his part by being targeted the most when he is on the field of all qualifying CBs.
• OCs seem to have it twisted by including Carlton Davis in the most targeted group.  Dude is nice in two of the other three metrics.  Let's see how Mahomes and Bienemy deal.

Battle Ratio - Who's Hot?

• Jaylon Johnson was tossed into the fire by CHI right away and he's showing he belongs with the highest Battle ratio through Week 11.  He and Fuller (#10) are a formidable duo.
• Another rookie, Trevon Diggs is on the boundary of above average but the Bleed is below average.  He is solid at defending passes, but when he give up a catch receivers pick up more yards than average.

Battle Ratio - Who's Not?

• Dikembe Mutumbo would not have a lot to say to Jourdan Lewis as his ability to disrupt receivers leaves a lot to be desired. 
• Although Jimmy Smith makes the list, OCs don't throw at him and he is definitely not giving up yards.  

Bleed Ratio - Who's Hot?

• The aforementioned Jimmy Smith tops the board giving up the fewest yards per snap.  Given the above average Attack ratio, OCs are not messing with JS.
• Jourdan Lewis, despite being picked on with his Attack and Battle ratios less than the mean, does not give up a lot of yards per snap.  

Bleed Ratio - Who's Not?

• Welcome to the NFL, Jeff Okudah.  He has the largest Yards/Snap number but he is at least staying above the mean in terms of Burn ratio.  Barely.  Let's see if the kid is going to soak it all in this year or if this is what we should expect going forward.
• Unfortunately neither Sean Murphy-Bunting nor Isaiah Oliver can deflect attention on their Bleed ratio to another superior metric...because they are less than the mean in all categories.
  

Burn Ratio - Who's Hot?

• Marlon Humphry is a work horse for BAL with a Burn ratio more than two standard deviations above the mean.  Only Xavien Howard comes close. 
• For some reason, OCs keep shelling Carlton Davis even though he doesn't give up TDs and breaks up passes all day.  Some people never learn.

Burn Ratio - Who's Not?

• As a Jets fan, this doesn't surprise me as Buster Skrine had an up and down stint in NY.
• He may not a household name (yet) like Jason McCourty but Charvarius Ward may soon be once OCs figure out why they are not throwing at him (and McCourty) more given their Burnability. 

Qualifier Rankings

Here are the qualifying corners ranked based on average of the four scores. 

• The top names are no surprise. Here they are with their Week 12 opponents:
•  Ryan (@CIN with backup QB Ryan Finley)
• White (vs LAC with rookie sensation Justin Herbert)
• Callahan (hosting Taysom Hill and NO)
• Bradberry (see Ryan above)
• Fuller (@GNB Sunday night)
• Here are the guys making up the bottom of the list:
• Oliver (hosting Derek Carr and LVR)
• Murphy-Bunting (hosting Machines and Co.)
• Skrine (see Fuller above)
• Gladney (hosting CAR with Teddy Bridgewater set to return)
• Flowers (visiting PHI Monday night)
• Okudah - played Thanksgiving with the result being Deshaun Watson lighting the Lions up for 318 yards and 4 TDs with no INTs. Oh, and the head coach getting fired.

Will post updated info from Week 12 later in the week.

*********************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

NCAA Wide Receiver Efficiency by ROI through 11-15-20

 All Conferences are in Full Swing

Here is the updated list of top efficiency wide receivers based on my Return on Investment metric compared to the popular Dominator Rating through November 15. 

ROI is based on Target Efficiency and Reception Efficiency.  The numbers below are based on Reception Efficiency (Excess Percentage of Team Yards generated compared to Percentage of Team Reception).  Target Efficiency (Percentage of Team Receptions generated compared to Percentage of Team Targets) is included in the final ROI report provided after Bowl Season.  Read more about ROI in my prior post here.

Dominator Rating

The cut off here was 1 Standard Deviation greater than the average of the 150 players with the most receiving yards through November 15, 2020. 

• TD% = Percent of teams total Receiving TDs 
• Dom = Dominator Rating
• ROI Z = Z score of player's Return on Investment measure.

• The average top Dominator Rating performer on the list above is 48th in terms of receiving yards. 
• The list gives a nice cross section of players out there who are gaining a lot of yards and scores for their teams. 

Looking at ROI table, below we see a lot of different names.

Wide Receiver Return on Investment 

'DNQ'= Did Not Qualify as he did not meet the minimum Reception threshold the prior period.

• Bo Melton of Rutgers is the top ROI performer.  
• He had 21% of his team's receptions and generated 43% of the team's receiving yards generating nearly 105% greater efficiency than the average receiver in the top 150 (in terms of receiving yards).
• His ROI Z is a ridiculous 3.65 standard deviations above average.  His Dom Z was also insane at 2.84.
• Along with Melton, here are receivers who made both lists:
• Romeo Doubs - Nevada
• Ty Fryfogle - Indiana (by way of Hufflepuff Community College) 
• Josh Palmer - Tennessee

We will see how who rises and who falls over the weekend.  See you next week for the updated rankings. 

*********************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

The Trouble with Sam: Week 8 NY Jets vs. KC Chiefs Video Commentary

The Jets lost yet again and in this video I look at some glaring points of concern for the long term role of Sam Darnold on this team.

*****************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

The Initial College Football Wide Receiver Efficiency Analysis for 2020

Five Years in the Making

Five years ago, I wondered.  Is there a better way to evaluate college football receivers given the spectrum of college schemes and systems?  That wondering led to action which led to Receiver Return on Investment (R.O.I.).  When I rolled onto the "DraftTwitter" scene, I found Dominator Rating was the main predicter of performance (and, to a lessor extent, Breakout Age").  So, armed with spreadsheets and curiosity, I started the turning over the numbers and, five years later, the method is still in development as it will  likely be until I get distracted by something else- let's be honest, in sports analytics, is a process ever "complete"?   I sure hope not.

Return on Investment

• Looking at raw statistics are the first screening process for evaluating wide receiver prospects based on production.
• Dominator Rating looks at a player's production (yards and touchdown) and tries to project success at the next level based on percentage "market share".
•  While it makes sense that players with a large market share could continue to produce at the next level, how do you find the "diamonds in the rough" players who are totally overlooked by market share?  How do you find the guys who didn't monopolize market share but got more out of each of their opportunities?
• Five years ago I started looking at the relationship between market share of targets, receptions and yards and ranking players based on their progressive improvement of these statistics.    In the end, I came up with Return on Investment (ROI) as a way to gauge how much extra production a receiver provides his team compared to the averages of the Top 150 receivers.

These are not first or second round guys (they are pretty obvious to grade) but under the radar players who many may not know by name when they get to the NFL but many from my list who were relative unknowns have a habit of staying on rosters.   

Past ROI Receivers

Here are some of the largely unheralded draft prospects screened out as solid ROI guys. 

• 2016 
• Rashard Higgins -  5th round pick has been a contributor in CLE since being drafted with career YPR of 13.6.
• 2017
• Josh Reynolds - 4th round pick has established himself as WR3 with LAR.
• Tim Patrick - Undrafted and waived by BAL and SF, he has drawn attention as a leading WR on a team deep at that position.  On 67% of offensive snaps he averaged 14.3 YPT over his last 3 seasons.
• Cooper Kupp - 3rd round pick out of Eastern Washington has earned a $47M extension by generating over 1,000 yards in 2019; he was on pace to generate 1,000 yards in 2018 and is on pace to do so in 2020.
• Kenny Golladay - 4th round pick came out of nowhere to be the WR1 at Northern Illinois, then emerged as WR1 for DET.  Back to back 1,000 yard seasons in 2018 and 2019.
• 2018
• Trent Sherfield - Undrafted pick up by ARI, he has been a solid contributor for the team with > 25% of offensive snaps and > 43% of special team snaps each of the past 2 seasons.
• Cedrick Wilson - 6th round pick from Boise State is on a team with stud WRs an still posts the teams highest Yards per Snap ratio of 1.35 through Week 7 (Lamb is 1.30, Cooper 1.19 and Gallup 0.80) so when he is on the field, the QB is looking his way.   If he and Lamb develop, it might make it easier to release Cooper and his huge contract in 2022.
• Tre'Quan Smith - 3rd round pick had done all the team has asked him to do coming in for no less than 43% of offensive snaps in his career, coming in at 82% this season to fill in for an injured Michael Thomas.
• 2019
• Scotty Miller - A 6th round pick from Bowling Green, Miller has found himself an integral part of the TB offense due to injury and he's making the best of it currently 32nd in receiving yards. 
• Olabisi Johnson - Obtained for what some consider throw away pick territory in the 7th round, the Colorado State paid for himself in 2019 alone providing the team flexibility by being on the field for 53% of offensive snaps which is an outstanding value for his draft position.  Although his WR3 spot was taken over by 1st round pick Jefferson, he continues to contribute (> 25% of Offensive and ST snaps).
• Travis Fulgham - The Old Dominion product went in the 6th round and has emerged as the leading receiver on PHI so far this year.  Who knew? ROI knew. 
• 2020
• Darnell Mooney - The 5th rounder out of Tulane was the number 2 in ROI for 2019 but it seems a scheme change threw his 2020 season out of whack. CHI's scouts must be a fan of this blog because who else had him on the radar after a down year in 2019?
• Most other rookies are still getting their feet wet but you can check out the full list here.

Kicking off the 2020 Season

I'm sure we are all ready for 2020 to move on but we have college football back as a welcome distraction.  Usually we have the first ROI table after the 3rd week of play but with all conferences at different point in the season now is as good a time as any. 

Shaded = Not Draft Eligible

The table above is sorted by ROI Z score with everyone on the list with ROI greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean. 

The DOM and Dom Z are related to the Dominator rating. 

Rec% and Yard% is the percentage of team receptions and yards, respectively.

Dominator Rating

The table above is sorted by Dominator Rating. Here you see more of the household names. The last column lists ROI efficiency so while David Bell is responsible for over 58% of Purdue's receiving production ROI indicates he is not making the most of his opportunities.  

By contrast, Josh Palmer and Romeo Doub's have high Dominator Ratings and ROI.

Check this spot for ongoing updatesnon a weekly basis.

*********************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html