Plus or Minus?
Looking at the 2020 ESPN NextGen stats for quarterbacks and found it very interesting.
Of the various stats, here are the ones relevant to this piece:
- Completion Probability
The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more (they don't tell us what the "and more" is since they want to keep this proprietary).
- Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP)
Using a passer’s Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer’s completion percentage is expected to be.
- Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+/-)
A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.
When we take a look at the difference between the COMP%Z minus xCOMP%Z give us the Contribution for each QB.
So what does this mean? Let's take a look at the quarterbacks in each division based on Contribution:
Z- Score Key
Blue = Greater than 2 Standard Deviations above the Mean.
Yellow = Within 1 Standard Deviation above the Mean.
Green = Greater than 1 and less than 2 Standard Deviations above the Mean.
Orange = Greater than 1 Standard Deviation below the Mean.
Red = Greater than 1 and less than 2 Standard Deviations below the Mean.
Black = Greater than 2 Standard Deviations below the Mean.
Let's take Josh Allen as an example.
- His expected completion % (xCOMP%) was 64.6% which was just below average (evidenced by his xComp%Z score).
- But compared to his actual performance (COMP%), his Completion Performance Above Expectation was 4.6% putting him at the top of the AFC East.
- His Contribution (COMP%Z - XCOMP%Z) is above average and one of the top in the league.
Comments:
- AFC East
- Cam Newton came into NE with no off-season, battled COVID and as a result he couldn't capitalize on the superb opportunities Belichick and company provided him resulting in a division worst -1.07 Contribution rating. We'll see if he gets it on track in 2021 with a year under his belt as a Patriot.
- Despite having the worst xCOMP% in the division, Joe Flacco's Contribution was a bit better than expected when he backed up an injured Sam Darnold who fared worse than Joe.
- AFC North
- Joe Burrow was something special turning nothing into something, taking a worse than 1 Standard Deviation xCOMP Z and sneaking it just above average to have the highest Contribution in the division.
- Lamar Jackson did not exceed his expectations and has a negative Contribution which is interesting as BAL is likely working on a contract extension.
- AFC South
- There was no question Deshaun Watson was the best QB in the division but Gardner Minshew and Ryan Tannehill both overcame whatever obstacles faced them to have above average Contribution performance in 2020.
- Mike Glennon replaced Minshew in JAX but the former had positive Contribution to the passing game where the latter did not.
- AFC West
- Looking at Drew Lock's performance last year in terms of Contribution, the fact that DEN passed on drafting a QB in 2021 may come back to haunt them.
- Much maligned Derek Carr continues to perform with division leading Contribution beating out Super Bowl QB Pat Mahomes.
- NFC East
- This division saw the most QBs taking significant snaps. But seeing how only two had positive Contribution (Dak Prescott in an injury shortened season and Jalen Hurts), it's no surprise teams could not settle on a signal caller.
- Dwayne Haskins had the third highest xCOMP% but ended up with the absolute worst Contribution of -2.24 for the entire league. That is a talent unto itself!
- NFC North
- As much as everyone loves to dump on Kurt Cousins, he made the most of his situation with greater positive Contribution to the Vikings passing game than former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.
- Matthew Stafford has a new opportunity in Los Angeles but his performance last year was not quite what you would want with negative Contribution.
- NFC South
- My man Teddy Bridgewater can't get a break. He is second in the NFC South to Tom Brady by percentage points in terms of Contribution (and leads the division in +/-) and goes on to get run out of town. For the second time in his career. By the same guy. The horror.
- Not sure you can say Drew Brees was "last" in the division when he has second highest COMP% in the league but it is what it is when compared to Sean Payton's playcalling. His gold jacket awaits.
- NFC West
- Jimmy Garoppolo had the table set for him with an xCOMP% of 70.7% on his passes - everything must have been perfect in terms of success factors. But, he couldn't convert on enough of these lay ups and his Contribution of -1.59 is pretty much the reason Trey Lance was selected #3 overall.
- Looking at Garappolo's backup, Nick Mullens, he didn't fare very much better with Contribution of -1.16.
- Despite his comments about his Offensive Line, Russell Wilson was top of his division in terms of +/- and Contribution. Now that SEA has picked up Center Shane Waldron and Guard Gabe Jackson in free agency, plus potential sleeper OL stone Forsythe in the draft, the rest of the NFC West may have a real problem.
ESPN NextGen has a lot of interesting features I'm sure many of you would love to explore.
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