Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency for NFL Draft 2020
After reviewing the most efficient receivers each week of the FBS season, below are the final rankings for the 2019-2020 FBS wide receiver efficiency ratios based on my Return on Investment measure. While you can find out more on ROI in detail here, let me just tell you what ROI is not:
- A Leading Indicator - You will read many articles imploring you to set your draft big boards based on certain metrics (breakout age, market share, Dominator Rating, etc.) but I would never recommend going down the list of ROI and assuming that as any sort of definitive ranking. ROI is a screening exercise to find some players who may be missed by the mainstream media who have been telling us since last April who this year's top draft picks will be. ROI is best used when you follow up on new names with film work to see why the player is super efficient...is it scheme? Lack of talent of other teammates? Lack of competition? Or is the player just really, really good? ROI is designed to lead you down a path for further analysis.
- Designed to Validate Top Players- Because ROI sifts through to find players who get more production with fewer opportunities, brand name guys are often absent from the list. Efficiency often misses those who get loads of opportunities to shine and so ROI will usually not include players who are well known or already at the top of the total receptions or yards lists (although this has happened). ROI is most useful screening out lessor known players such as Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd and others, than validating the top 3 popular NFL draft receivers.
- Touchdown Driven - Some efficiency measures include touchdown efficiency, however ROI leaves that out because so many other factors go into a TD that could be beyond the receivers control. ROI is driven by the relationship between the aspects of targets, receptions and yards influenced by the receiver's ability. My personal analysis looks at Recs/TDs with the following guys in the top 5:
- CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma - 1 TD every 4.4 receptions
- Tee Higgins, Clemson - 1 TD/4.5 recs
- Chase Claypool, ND - 1 TD/ 5.1 recs
- Omar Bayless, Arkansas State - 1 TD/ 5.5 recs
- Denzel Mims, Baylor - 1 TD/ 5.5 recs
For this analysis, ROI was graded based on the typical school scale, with the top score at 100% and everyone else rated based on their relationship to the top and average scores. You will see the popular "College Dominator" (Dom) rating displayed also. Although it differs greatly from ROI (as detailed here), Dominator ratings above 35% expect players to be at least late 1st round/early 2nd round prospects. With that, check out the the qualifying receivers who will be available this coming April for NFL Draft:
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| Qualifying players had receptions > 1 standard deviation below the mean of the top 150 receivers based on yardage. Color code: Blue > 2 Standard Deviations (StDv) above mean, Green > 1 StDv above , Bold Yellow within 1 StDv above, Yellow within 1 StDv below mean, Orange < 1 StDv below mean, Red < 2 StDv. |
Notes
- Still Number One - Clemson's Tee Higgins went wire to wire as the most efficient draft eligible receiver with team shares of targets (17.7%), receptions (18.1%) and yards (27.0%) resulting in aggregate ROI of 51.4% which is 177% above the average (was 2 standard deviations above the mean)...not shabby.
- Uncommon - We had a pretty good showing of unicorn players in the Top 10 in terms of yards showing up with above average ROI ratings:
- Brandon Aiyuk, ASU # 10 in Yards, #3 in ROI
- Omar Bayless, Ark St. #1 in Yards, #8 in ROI
- Devin Duvernay, Texas #4 in Yards, # 10 in ROI
- CeeDee Lamb, Okie #5 in Yards, # 12 in ROI
- Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty #3 in Yards, #26 in ROI
- The Missing - The following were in the Top 10 in receiving yards but did not have similar ROI rankings:
- Justin Jefferson, LSU #2 in Yards, #35 in ROI with 23.6% team targets, 26.1% team receptions but 25.6% team yards (inefficiency in Rec/Yard conversion cost him in terms of ROI).
- Tyler Johnson, Minnesota #6 in Yards, #36 in ROI same story as Jefferson, Johnson was more efficient in converting Targets to a larger % of receptions than teammates but he was not able to convert the receptions into gratuitous yards.
- Keep in mind, this is not atypical with players with such high College Dominator ratings (remember, ROI is NOT a leading indicator).
- James Proche, SMU #9 in Yards, #46 in ROI with an Orange rating, Proche (33.8% target/35.5% receptions/30.5% yards) was a huge ROI performer two years ago but has not been in the top of the ratings since. Not sure if there was a QB or scheme change but it will be interesting to watch his video to see what happened to him.
- Left Field Crew - I focus on receivers and corners so when a name I never heard drops out of left field on my after screening out based on ROI, I really dig in to see if I missed a gem. Those names include Arthur Jackson III, Eastern Michigan, Siasoi Mariner, Utah State, and Tony Brown, Colorado.
- The Elephant in the Room - I'm sure many of you searched for the consensus WR1's name and wondered why he showed up at #44 overall. With Team Target% of 27.1%/Rec% of 26.8% and Yard% of 26.1%, a declining pattern over those three indicators negatively impacts ROI. Remember ROI is more about finding diamonds in the rough than validating top names so the focus should be on the top of the list, not the bottom.
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