Draft 2020: Pass Rusher Early Look - UPDATED 1-6-20

After #1 Who is Next?

With the game on the line and your team MUST have a stop to emerge victorious, there is one player the entire fan base looks to and that is the pass rusher.  With the explosion to get past the offensive lineman on the snap, the ankle flexibility to bend around blockers and the power to take down the QB for a sack, the EDGE rusher (primarily the 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB) is an invaluable chess piece when he is effective.

Let's take a look at some of the top Edge prospects for the 2020 NFL draft.

We start with the current draft eligible pass rushers in FBS who are in the Top 35 in terms of Total Sacks this past season.  Based on the number of defensive plays run by the player's team  ("Def Play", below) and the standard Sack measurement of one sack for a Solo and a half for an "Assist"  ("Total" below) here is the breakdown of the Top Sack men measured on their sack generating efficiency on a per play basis.

The ratio placings are converted to standard school scores (> 90% = A, > 80% = B, etc) above for easier contextualization.

Standard Sack Count

Based on the half sack method (sounds painful):

•  Chase Young is number 1.  No shock.  Even if he played in the games he missed due to the "suspension" and we counted those defensive plays, he would still have been about 10% above 2nd place Highsmith.  That is how dominant he has been. 
• Although Oluwole Betiku had only 9 sacks, his eligible play count was only 657 because he did not participate in 4 games - which is a whole different issue in itself.
• Even though 65 is a passing grade in school, anything below a 70 is considered Average for our purposes.
• Keep in mind the players are ranked based on peer ranking.  They are the best of the best to even be on the list, so finishing in the red does not mean the player is not worth a roster spot, it just shows how competitive it will be for Edge help in this year's draft.

Adjusted Sacks

As mentioned in the similar Edge analysis for last year's draft (read it here), the half sack designation is misleading and somewhat punitive- why should a player be penalized because he happened to get "home" at the same time as a teammate?  It is understood the half sack is required for NCAA record keeping but for analysis, we adjust the sack totals so that ADJ represents full credit for assists as it does for solo sacks. 

• Kenny Willekes (who appeared on last year's Tackles for a Loss analysis) benefited the most because his 7 solo and 7 sack assists adjusts to 14 total sacks - a 33.3% increase. 
• Curtis Weaver went the opposite way as his sack total was nearly dead on.  With just one sack assist  therewas no untapped value to wring out of his stats. 
• The top 4 had a nice mix of  solo and assists to maintain their slottings. 

Adjusted Sacks w/ Strength of Schedule Weighting

The final factor to consider is Strength of Schedule weighting.  This is not based on wins and losses but by a stat ranking of every team based on the number of Pass Plays/Sacks Allowed.  For reference, San Jose State was the toughest team to get a sack against (1 every 35.6 pass attempts) while Georgia Southern has work to do this summer (1 every 5.7 pass attempts). Each players sacks are measured against the teams that gave them up and the final sack total is adjusted.
Sacks against easier opponents? Sacks are reduced.  Sack opponents were better than average?  Your sack total improved.

The final column shows the change between the original standard sack calculation method and the SoS Adjusted.

• Willekes benefited most from this exercise, increasing 11 spots to #4 from #15.  
• Zack Baun declined 6 spots to #11.
• The top 3 Young, Highsmith and Bradlee Anae remained unaffected by the adjustments.

Remember, all these players are in the tops in terms of sacks so all will have intense film sessions  There are lots of other players who will hear their names called on Draft Day; looking forward to digging more into those on the list above and those who are absent.  

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