Week 8 Updated FCS, Division II and Division III Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency Rankings

NCAA is More than Just FBS

Over the last two weeks I introduced ROI rankings for FCS, DII and DII to go along with the weekly FBS rankings. From here on out, ROI efficiency rankings for each of the 4 components of NCAA will be profiled weekly.  

What is Return on Investment?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.  

There are two components to ROI:

• Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.
• QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance. 

The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities. 

The numbers discussed until after the end of the season will not include the target/reception ratio as target figures are easier to compile at the end of the season than weekly. (I have only so much time...)

This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro.  Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect.  ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names.  Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list.  The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.

Here are the updated tables for the week ending 10/21/17:

 FCS

 

Notes

• Bob Pugh is a straight beast.  All-State our of Foley HS (AL), went JUCO and was All-American as receiver and return man at Highland CC.  So far this year, he has more than double the yards he had all last season with only four more receptions.  His coach at Indiana State doesn't have much to say about him,  though. 
• Daurice Fountain is about his business.  He grew up in the college town of Madison, Wisconsin where he was an All-State WR out of James Madison Memorial (WI) also taking All-State honors in Track, capturing the state championships in the 110 hurdles and the long jump.  He also found time for basketball, taking conference honors there, as well.  Despite being from a serious college town, Fountain went to UNI where he saw limited action as true freshman.  But in his next two years, he led UNI in receiving; thus far he is number 1 so far this season..  Yet another not very impressed coach here.   
• There FCS average ROI was 21.6% and so the top ROIs above is limited to WRs who produced better than average results. 

Division II

Notes

• One thing about working in the sister divisions to FBS, it is not easy to find press data about some of the players so thank you in advance for understanding.
• Another New #1 in Gary McKnight who did not qualify last week (his receptions were not within 1 Standard Deviation of the DII average). All-State WR our of MacArthur, Lawton (OK) which won the state championship in 2012.  Team MVP.  Led NE State in recs, rec yards and TDs last year, on pace to do the same
• D'Angelo Bowie is new to the list from Western New Mexico.  He Transferred from Grossmont College and took a redshirt in 2015 at Western NM.  After a  quiet 2016 season, he leads the team in receiving in 2017.

Division III

And finally, Division III:

Notes

• Brandon Ehkre dropped in to the #1 spot without having previously been on the Top ROI list.  An All-State WR out of Deerfield HS (WI) with at least all-conference honors in basketball and baseball, Ehkre also currently plays for the Carroll basketball team.   Details are sketchy but it seems as though this, his senior year, is his first year of college football (!).  With 24% of teams receptions and 40% of team reception yards, his avg efficiency ratio garners him 67% more yards pro rata, good enough to debute in the #1 spot. 
• Brad Garcia was touted by teammate Koree Reed as a straight beast and based on what I've read, he's right.  Have a seat and check this out: A three sport athlete (football, basketball and baseball) out of Warwick Valley HS (NY).  He was 3x FIRST TEAM All-State.  In his senior year he led the state in rushing totaling 2,549 yards and 27 TDs with two 400+ yard rushing games...as a QB.  (Breathe) College: Freshman year he was 3rd in the NCAA (the entire thing) in term s of yards per rec. Sophomore year? Hey, how about being named an All-American with  1,382 yards and 14 TDs. Junior year reached 1,000+ yards for 2nd straight year.  So far, has a statline of 36/726/11 (leading the team with TDs) so with 2 games to go he needs 274 to hit 1,000 for a third year.

Looking forward to this coming weekend's action!

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Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of ROI in FBS, FCS, D2 and D3~

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Week 8 Updated WR Return on Investment for FBS thru 10/21/17

Week 8 - Football Bowl Subdivision Top 20 ROI

A lot of great games this past weekend and we are seeing the playoffs starting to take some sort of shape.  There is still a whole bunch of football to be played before January so let's jump right into the Top 20 Return on Investment (ROI) receivers for FBS.

ROI based on the top 150 FBS players in terms of  total receiving yards through 10/21/17.

Stuff You Should Know:

• Easy Come, Easy Go - After debuting at #1 overall last week, highly touted LSU receiver D.J. Chark has disappeared from the rankings.  What happened?  No receptions this past weekend vs. Ole Miss. and so he fell below the minimum number of receptions required to qualify for the survey (this minimum was established to weed out guys who are simply deep threats and provide little production on short and intermediate routes).  Keep in mind, Chark on a lot of lips for WR1 (him, but he's not mine, but that's another article); ROI is especially useful in screening out hidden gems.

• I Tried to Tell Ya - New number 1 overall is Jester Weah  has been a favorite of mine for sometime. He has contributed 52.4% more yards than his expected pro-rata share of receptions for the Panthers so far this season.  Looking forward to seeing him on Sundays.

• The Fantastic Four - Only 4 receivers have been on the FBS Top 20 list every week since we began 6 weeks ago:  Cedrick Wilson, James Washington, Tyre Brady and Vic Wharton III.   Do yourself a favor and watch Trey Wharton's highlight reel out of high school; this was about as highly produced as the Justice League movie.  Warning, his high school team's mascot is an eagle...can't say I didn't warn you.  

• Don't Call it a Comeback -   Darren Carrington, Andre Wilson,  Doni Dowling, Jaleel Scott and Sergio Bailey II all returned to the Top 20 list. this week.  These electrifying WRs have each starting to generate "buzz" on social media; we will see which among the talking heads will claim to have "discovered" each of them. 

• The New Kid in Town - All 5'9", 182 lbs of Ryheem Malone makes his debut to the list at number 19.  The Houston native out of Bellaire HS originally enrolled at SMU but left the state to become a Ragin' Cajun at Lafayette.  He sat out 2016 due to the idiotic NCAA sit out rule.  As efficient as he is as a receiver, he is also a dangerous return man as seen in his high school reel.  

• TD Rate  - The average TD rate for the entire sample of 150 WRs was 1 TD every 10.3 receptions.  While only 5 of the Top 20 need to pick up the pace, Doni Dowling leads the group with a TD every 5.9 catches.  Of course, leading the league is former USC QB commit, current  WVU' WR, David Sills with 1 TD every 3.1 catches (he did not sufficient ROI to make this list). 

• The Gravy Index - The number of Top 20 ROI players who are at least within 1% of the average weight/height ratio of 2.79 lbs/in for 2016 NFL Player Combine Wide Receivers has fallen to 7 or 35%.   In fact, there are as many players who are off the average by double digit percentages as there are players above that average. Maybe after Bowl season when they can get home to Mom's cooking, they can put some meat on those bones. 

That's it for FBS!   Look out for FCS, DII and DIII later this week!

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Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of ROI in FBS, FCS, D2 and D3~

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Gearing up for the 2nd DraftTwitter NFL Draft Top 100 and I need your feedback on the top 100 prospects, the only list that is created by amateur (and some professional) scouts like you!  And I'd love you to submit a ballot.  Check out last year's here.  Stay tuned for more info coming over the next few weeks. 

Week 7 - Top Return on Investment Wide Receivers for FBS and DIII

Updated Wide Receiver Return on Investment 

Focusing on draft eligible players in at least their fourth year of school, here is the updated ROI for Week 7 (ending 10/14) for FBS and Division III ahead of today's action.  For a detailed explanation of ROI, please review this article.

FBS Top 20 

Qualified receivers had receptions within 1 standard deviation from the average of the top 150 total yardage WRs.

And Then There Were 4

After a ho-hum game vs. USC Darren Carrington of Utah is off the list, leaving Cedrick Wilson, James Washington, Tyre Brady and Vic Wharton III as the receivers who have represented on each of the Top 20 lists so far this year. 

Don't Call it a Comeback

Once off the list, players do make their ways back: Jalen Harvey, Davon Grayson and Alfonso Onunwor were on the list earlier this season and then fell off, only to return this week. 

Carolina Kids

Davon Grayson and Trevon Brown from East Carolina are the rare example of two players from one team making the Top 20.  What makes this all the more interesting is their Team Passing Completion % is the second lowest in the survey at 51.7%, about 20% worse than the FBS average of 61.6%.  QB Adjusted ROI (part of the ROI calculation) considers QB completion %.

A Few New Entry Comments

• D.J. Chark - This kid doesn't play around.  He did not qualify in previous weeks but last week he debuted at #1 - that's pretty impressive.  The highly touted 2x All-State (LA) honorable mention out of Alexandria HS was rated as high as a four-star recruit.  After a long wait playing behind 2 future NFL WRs, the kid has a lot of motivation to make it to the next level.  Considered by some the top WR prospect in this year's draft.  His HS footage shows the fundamentals and  skills he brought with him to LSU. 
• Jester Weah - A big fan of this young man.   All-State out of Madison Memorial HS (WI) despite only playing organized football for 3 years. Was deemed #2 WR prospect in the state. Tri-sport; Basketball and Track, state champion in both.  Although he might be considered a project, he has some good habits to build upon.  
• Keith Kirkwood - Interesting story:  1 year of football out of Neptune HS (NJ), decorated with All-County honors.  Main sport is basketball where his HS team reached States twice.  He was a McDonald's All American nominee.  Started out at Hawai'i (2013) as a wide out with decent production. Transferred to Temple and was able to play on a hardship waiver (homesick?); was first to earn a single digit number which the coach will bestow only on the hardest working, gutsiest player on the team.  Solid citizen in class room and in the community.  Still tracking down decent footage to share.
• Marcus Green - 1st Team All State out of N. Pontotoc (MS) in football where  he amassed > 1,900 all purpose yards in back to back seasons (each of which included at least 55 rushes). A dual sportsman, he also earned five basketball letters and left Pontotoc as the all time leading hoops scorer. Solid HS video. 

Division III

Pierre Garcon, Cecil Shorts, Ali Marpet and I have one thing in common: we all went to Division III schools.  The struggle is real but for those who rise to the challenge, we persevere and anything is possible.  Here are the D3 Top ROI receivers (note, only 19 are included because that many had above average ROIs).

Notes:

• Koree Reed - Let's talk about Mr. Reed.  He is listed at 6'1" 185lbs, which is on the big side for most D3 WRs. All-State (NY) out of Baldwinsville HS.in Central NY. In his first year on Hartwick after transferring from Central Connecticut State, he lead Division III in receiving yards and was named was an AP 1st Team All American (he was also added to other All-American lists).   Pre-season All American designee for 2017 - has not disappointed yet by leading the Division in receiving yards so far in 2017.Hard to find a lot on some D3 prospects, not so with Reed...here is his 2016 video.  Definitely looking forward to see what team does their homework on Reed for NFL Draft 2018.
• Deontez Alexander- An Indianapolis kid listed at 6'3" and a narrow 180 lbs, he started off at in-state Anderson University before transferring to Franklin which kept him in Indiana. A touchdown machine, he had a total of 15 with at least one in each of his 10 games in 2016 leading to his all-conference selection.  He continues finding the end zone at a ridiculous rate of one TD for every 2.7 receptions - I've never seen such a rate since I started tracking these numbers over the last 2 years in any division of college football.  If he can complete the year at less then 3:1 Rec/TDs, I have to believe more than one NFL scout will at least take a long look at Alexander.
• Malik Jackson - Solid ROI WR who brings a solid multi sport background to the table.  Jackson was state runner (MD) in wrestling and all county football player.  His toughness and willingness to mix it up is evident in his videos which also shows his ability to manipulate DBs with his route running and gain separation.  He seems to really "get it" when it comes to the purpose of each step in a route to set up his opponents..  Also, his Physics/Optics selection of majors tells you his ability to grasp information will be absolutely no issue whatsoever. When you have a genius level athlete, a responsible scout owes it to his organization to look at the total package he offers. 

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Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of ROI in FBS, FCS, D2 and D3~

Also, go like the new Boombearjr Football Analysis Facebook Page and follow me there! https://www.facebook.com/boombearjr/.

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Gearing up for the 2nd DraftTwitter NFL Draft Top 100 and I need your feedback on the top 100 prospects, the only list that is created by amateur (and some professional) scouts like you!  And I'd love you to submit a ballot.  Check out last year's here.  Stay tuned for more info coming over the next few weeks. 

Week 6 Part II - WR Return on Investment FCS and DII

There's More than Just FBS?

A few days ago, the updated FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment (ROI) rankings were released.  But, what about the other divisions in college football?  You might not know it, but these FCS and DII schools crank out their fair share of NFL players:

• Danny Woodhead, RB BAL - Chadron State (Nebraska) DII, ~3,000 students.
• Marquette King, K OAK - Fort Valley State (Georgia) DII, 2,227 students.
• Jerrell Freeman, LB CHI - Mary Hardin-Baylor (Texas) DIII, ~ 3,900 students.
• Brent Grimes, CB TB -Shippenburg (Pennsylvania) DII ~ 5,900 students

The list is extensive.  So, given the "lower divisions" have a history of providing players who have made a living in this league, no amateur scout (or professional one, for that matter) has not finished the job until they have scoured the non-FBS divisions for talent.


This article will review top ROI (if you need a refresher on this efficient measure, please click here) performers for FCS and DII.  We will cover DIII with next week's FBS ROI update and then rotate weekly between FCS, DII and DIII.

Football Championship Subdivision

FCS was a bit compact in the distribution along the top 17 (only 17 seniors qualified for the list by posting above average ROI.  Here are some notable names:

• Jerod Diggs is the top ROI performer through Week 6 of FCS play.  He is a JUCO transfer from Lackawanna, (PA, although now the school is a now a 4 year degree college) who was team MVP, helping lead the Falcons to a #4 national ranking and conference championship.  In high school he also helped the basketball team to a championship,  with 27 points in title game.
• Malik Earl has a lot of solid attributes.  He is a former All-State (OK) player out of Santa Fe High School.  You can tell from his video that he understands his role as a receiver.  He has good size and strength.  Recognized as an All-MVEC honorable mention in 2016, he also served as team co-captain.  In high school, he was on the basketball team, so he has the diverse sports background to help diversify his foundation.  Keep an eye on him.
• Jaelon Acklin is, on paper, one of my favorite receivers for this draft cycle.  Get this: All-State (MO) in football out of Liberty HS in THREE different positions in 3 different years.  All-State in basketball (scored over 1,000 pts in his career)and was All-State in Track 5 times.  Not sure what lab they grew this kid in, but they need to mass produce. A duel threat QB in HS, he scored 65 TDs his Senior year - 8 in one game vs. the #3 ranked team in the state.  Won at least district championships in each of his three sports.  Finally, he has the third component of the triumvirate, he has pedigree as his Dad played football at Carthage.  No idea if he makes it to the next level but he seems to have all the components to at least get a long look.

FCS Gravy Index

The average WR at the 2016 NFL Player Combine had an average body density measure (that is, weight in lbs divided by height in inches) of 2.79 lbs/inch.  We see only 4 current top FCS ROI WRs above that threshold with 2 more within 1% on the undersized side.  While the majority of the undersized guys are within 5% of the average body density, these guys could still stand to double up at the canteen.

Division II

The distribution for DII is wider, showing us the top of the list is separating itself from the pack.  In terms of All-State performers, we verified 10 in DII compared to just 3 in FCS.  Also, you will see players who score TDs with greater frequency than their FCS counterparts.


One thing FCS consistently beat DII in was Team Website content so the sparse comments below are reflective of lack of information for this piece.

• Jordan Thomas was the top man whose ROI efficiency was 254% better than the average player.  Jordan is an All State (TX) player out of John Paul Stevens HS in San Antonio.
• Nate Huot plays the position with a lot of tenacity, which you don't always see at the wideout position.   He uses that ferocity in the KR/PR game. He has been a 3 time All-NSIC South selection. A high school All-State (MN) selection out of Dawson-Boyd. State Champs, he was Marshall Independence  Player of the year.  Also All-State in basketball  and also selected by the Marshall Independence as Player of the Year for that sport.  Last bit; he earn six letters in football. That means he was varsity in 7th grade.  Shivers.  
• Donta Armstrong has credentials:  All State (MS) out of Bruce High School (MS) and offensive player of the year for his conference.  He went the JUCO route, going on to Northeast CC to become a NJCAA All-American with 1195 all purpose yards.  Keeping the trend going, he is an All-American WR at West Alabama. 

Three players scored TDs at a frantic rate:

• Matthew Wilcox (also a former All-State swimmer as well as football player) scored a TD every 4.8 receptions.
• Devin Martin from "Shaolin" scored a TD every 4.4 receptions.
• Marcus Johnson transferred from Thiel College in 2015, won Conference Newcomer of the Year and went on to lead his team in receiving in 2016 scored at a pace of 1 TD every 4.2 receptions. 

Gravy Alert at DefCon 1

Yep, as they say down south, these are some po' boys.  With only 2 above average and just 2 more within 1%, this is a mighty light group.  They have a whopping 6 players in negative double digits off the average body density so it may be time to get the gravy IV's ready.  Keep in mind, in 2015, most of the top NFL WRs had body density measures closer to 3.00x so this group will have its concerns when scouts consider this in projecting durability.

Thanks for reading and check back next week for updates to FBS and DIII ROI.

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Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of wide receiver  ROI for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III!

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Week 6 - Top Return on Investment Wide Receivers for FBS

Time to Get Serious

Halfway into the college football season and now it's time to get serious.  Previously, we included all NFL Player Draft eligible FBS wide receivers in our Top 20 Return on Investment ("ROI") list (If you need a refresher on what goes into ROI, click here).  Going forward, only those 4 years removed from high school will be considered.  This would include seniors, graduate students, players who took a redshirt season and are not "redshirt juniors" and players who had to suffer the idiocy of the NCAA "transfer and waste a year" rule. 

Broken Record Time

As always, ROI is an efficiency measure and should not be used as the only tool in evaluating top receivers.  ROI is best used to screen out names a scout might miss so that they can take a closer look at why that particular receiver  has been getting far more with far less.  

FBS Top 20

Eligible players collected receptions through October 7 within 1 standard deviation of the average for the top 150 top reception yard WRs

Top Guns - Tyre Brady and Cedrick Wilson retained their 1-2 spots, respectively and, along with James Washington, the top 3 have made our list every week so far this season (first list was released after Week 3).

Others who have also been mainstays on the Top 20 are  Darren Carrington and Vic Wharton III.

New Jack City - Because of the re-structuring of the list (detailed above), there are many new additions.   Here are some a few of them:

• Thomas Owens of Florida International - An All-Conference USA honorable mention in 2016, after leading his team in Receiving Yards with 652 over 12 games.  Now that former teammate Jonnu Smith has moved on to the NFL, Owens has exploded for 74 receiving yards per game compared to 54.3 last year.  In high school, Owens was a quarterback and also was a multi sport athlete, averaging 12.6 ppg on the hardwood. Although the team has scored more than 17 points only once this season, he has the ability to pick up yards and break open a game anytime. 
• Daesean Hamilton of PSU - Hamilton is disciplined.  He already earned a bachelor's degree and is working on his second.  His work ethic must have something to do with the fact that both his parents are United States Marines. Family is huge with this kid and the "why" truly drives his success.  This solid foundation allowed him to ball out, in high school showing out with two-time All-State (VA) Honorable Mentions, rated as high as a 4 star prospect. He finished up 2016 with a statline of 34/506/1 and already has build up his numbers to a solid 22/366/4.
• Teo Redding of Bowling Green - Having had to sit behind current NFL WRs NY Giant Roger Lewis and KC Chief Gehrig Dieter, Redding crept up the depth chart behind heir apparent Scott Miller last year once he had a chance to increase his playing time. Although he got lapped in yards last year by Miller who went 74/968/10 compared to Redding's 2016 stat line of 31/423/3, so far this year Redding is the better man with over 100 more yards and 1 more touchdown than Miller on 4 fewer receptions.  A team captain in high school, Redding earned first team All-State honor (MI) while also competing in basketball.
• Cody Thompson of Toledo - A favorite under the radar pick for the upcoming NFL Player Draft, Boombearjr has been watching Thompson for years.  More than half way there, he appeared a shoo-in to break 1,000 yards for the second consecutive year but, alas, he's suffered a broken leg and will likely miss the rest of the season. A high school quarterback who also played basketball, Cody found success on short, intermediate and deep routes.  We will wait to see if he enters the draft or petitions for a 5th year.  Not sure another year at Toledo would do much to boost his draft status if he can get a redshirt so I expect him to toss his hat in for the NFL. 

TD Machines - While the average qualifying WR in our analysis score a TD every 10.4 receptions, the Top 20 averaged one every 9.4 receptions.  Of the qualifiers, Anthony Miller of Memphis continues his awesome performance by scoring every 5 receptions.  Five of our Top ROI WRs (Hamilton, Washington, Dowlling, Pierson-El and Grayson) are in the top 10 overall for TD scoring rate, all at least finding the endzone every 6.2 receptions. 

Don't Forget the Gravy! -  The average WR for the 2016 combine had an average simple body density measure (that is, weight in lbs/height in inches) of 2.79 lbs/inch.  Some of our Top 20 players are just not taking advantage of the all you can eat dining plan on campus:

• Only 6 of 20 are above weight while another 3 are less than 1% off.  More than half are going to figure out how to dismiss those pesky press corners at a below average playing weight. 
• Doni Dowling is 8% larger than average but measures of 3.00 lbs/inch are not uncommon among NFL WRs.  
• Cedrick Wilson, Mark Chapman and Teo Redding are 10% undersized given this ratio. To be clear, the players have skill, they are just a bit thinner than last year's combine attendees.  

 Keep a look out for the Top ROI FCS, DII and DIII players coming up soon!

Who’s on First? – Determining the “Safest” College Football Draft Selections by Position based on Historical Starts of First Round Picks between 2005 and 2014

Overview

This analysis intends to determine which position players provide the most long term “upside” based on the average number of season starts for 1^st round draft picks between 2004 and 2015.  Player Starts is used as the measure of player value in this analysis.  Starts is considered a preferred measure of value because starting players are often considered the best option for a team to win, thus a starting assignment validates a player’s supremacy at his position.  Hence, the relationship between average number of starts per season and a player’s value to his franchise is assumed to be direct.

The Data – The analysis considers the following data:

1.       The list of 319 players selected in the first round of the NFL player draft from the ten year period between 2005 to 2014. 

2.       The number of average starts per season of each player over their respective careers; years player may have been inactive due to injury, suspension, etc. were not included.

3.       2017 NFL rookie contract values for 1^st round players were used to assess the relative “value” of each player position to the others in the survey.  This quantifies the perceived value in selecting higher or lower in the first round.

Metrics - Analysis on a per-player and per position group basis was carried out.

                Fourteen player positions: C, CB, DE, DT, FS, G, ILB/LB, OLB, QB, RB, SS, T, TE, WR

1.  Average Draft Position for each Group was calculated based on the aggregate draft position of all players (at each of the 14 positions) divided by the number of players in each  position group.
2.   Average Starts (per Season) was calculated by taking the average of each player’s total starts over their careers divided by the number of seasons they played (2017 excluded).  This was aggregated to calculate the figure on a position level.
3.  Overall Standard Deviation represents the distribution of all 319 draft picks Average Starts relative to the Overall Average (entire draftee group average).
4.  Positional Standard Deviation represents the distribution of picks across each respective position group relative to the Positional Average (that is, each position group average).
5.  Outperform Ratio: Based on the number of players above each of the Overall Average and the Positional Average compared to those below each average. 
6.   ADP Salary assumes the cost for the average player at each position based on the Average Draft Position for the group (always rounding up) based on actual 2017 rookie contract values.
7.   ADP Salary per Average Start establishes the base “cost” for players at each respective position.
8.   Salary Premium reflects how much more or less than average that position’s ADP Salary per Average Start is (the lower, the better).
9.   Upside represents Outperform Ratio minus Salary Premium, which indicates the likeliness of a first round pick at that position providing more than the average amount of starts per year of his career.  The higher the Upside, the safer the pick, the lower the Upside, the riskier that position  has historically been in terms of reaching at least an average amount of starts per season.
10.   Overall Upside and Positional Upside are averaged and ranked with any ties going to the position with the higher Overall Upside. 

Here are the results:

Safest Overall Position to Draft in the First Round:  Offensive Guard – About as “boring” as it gets, 80% of the guards drafted in the first round of the 10 NFL Player Drafts between 2005 and 2014 started more than the average number of starts for all 1^st rounders during that period.  The fact that Guards were drafted at a negative Salary Premium of 18% (that is, they were that much less expensive than the aggregate ADP Salary per Average Start) helped push them to the front of the list.

Riskiest Overall Position to Draft in the First Round: Running Back – 75% of the running backs drafted during the 10 year period did not meet the average overall starts for all 1^st round draftees.  What’s more, the ADP Salary per Start was almost 26% more than average.

What about Quarterbacks? – Six signal callers went #1 overall, far more than the next position (Tackles and Defensive Ends each had 2 players selected at the top of drafts) during this period, however, based on our criteria, they were 11 out of 14 in terms of draft value.  With only approximately 58% of the survey QBs achieving better than average starts per season, it doesn’t make matters any better that the group also has the highest ADP Salary per Average Start. 

Safety Almost First? – The two Safety positions, SS and FF, were the 2^nd and 3^rd safest overall in terms of drafting for average starts.  When ADP Salary per Average Start is factored in, it is also beneficial that they are usually drafted later in the first round (SS at 14.4 ADP and FS at 22.6 ADP).

Popular Picks – Offensive Tackles generated the most first round picks during the period with 40 and proved to be 4^th   of 14 on the overall list.   The second highest number of picks were the 39 Defensive Ends who ended up 12^th of 14 given nearly 62% of their group drafted in the 1^st round did not achieve the average number of starts for the group.  

Conclusion 

Each Spring, GMs try to pick individual players during the NFL Player Draft based on any number of unknown criteria. Given the above analysis, it is clear that the historical trend can possibly provide insight into the best position groups to target based on players drafted over a 10 year period.  Despite the “sexy” skill or pass rushing positions getting significant media attention pre-draft, the “boring” rank and file positions, primarily Offensive Linemen and both Safeties have produced the highest percentage of 1^st round players with a greater than average number of more starts. This analysis does not claim to have spent anywhere near the amount of time, energy and resources as the average NFL team will spend to determine which young man they will pay a huge amount of money to with no guaranty for success at the draft.  And, while the author agrees this analysis may not be an appropriate measurement technique to pinpoint exceptional players, the results clearly show it has ascertained the safest selection pools given the historical data.  

2017 FBS Top 20 Return on Investment Receivers - Week 5 Update!

Third Survey

Five weeks in and we are already at our third Top 20 WR "Return on Investment" (ROI) list through September 30, 2017.  Lots of movement since last week's survey, so here is the list of the most efficient receivers based on "ROI" (for those of you not familiar with ROI as a measure for football receiver efficiency, please review the original article on the topic).

Qualifying receivers had total receptions within 1 standard deviation of the average of the top 150 receivers in terms of yardage. 

Hunger Games

On this the third Top 20 list, we have only 8 receivers appearing on all 3 lists.  Marshall's Tyre Brady has worked his way to the #1 spot returning 57.9% more on his opportunities (about 270% better than the average Top 150 receiver this week) while Tavares Martin Jr of Washington State is hanging on despite going in the opposite direction (to 15 from 12 last week).  

There is a trio of 2 timers lead by Jamarius Way of South Alabama (with 34.8% ROI, 162% better than average), Virginia's Doni Dowling and Parris Campbell of THE Ohio State University.

California has two players on the list in Vic Wharton III (3rd time on the list) and newcomer Kanawai Noa, a straight beast (see below).  No other school had teammates on the list.

Newcomers to the List

• Demarkus Lodge of Ole Miss debuted at #3 after his team's rough outing vs. 'Bama.  The kid put together back to back 100 yard games earlier this year but he's facing 'Bama Jr in Auburn on the road this week so we will see what he can put together.  Lodge, a 5 star player by some outlets out of Cedar Hill (TX) was named MVP in each of the state championship victories his Junior AND Senior years.  All State, All District Academic.  He had to sit and wait behind 4 DI receivers to get his shot on his high school's varsity squad.  Great piece about him here where he admits current NYJ Safety Jamal Adams almost made him reconsider his choice in sports. 
• Jaleel Scott of New Mexico State sort of dropped out of the sky.  After a solid career at football factory Rock Hill High (SC), Jaleel could not qualify for offers extended by Maryland and Kentucky, so he set out for Ellsworth CC (IA) where he was 1st team all conference.  Coached up by NMSU staff, Scott has been lighting up defensive backfields so far this year...check out his work vs. ASU where two of his incredible catches go down as no plays.  Tall, strong, and really nailing the finer points of route running, Scott should run up a lot of draft boards this coming Spring.  
• Kanawai Noa of California is the guy who left an immediate impression on me just from HS footage.  Out of Punahou High (HI), his football IQ is evident from his play on the field.  The ability to manipulate DBs and his in-game data acquisition was very advanced for a HS player.  He used those skills to help his team to the state championship and a nationwide ranking of #17 his senior year.  
• Jordan Lasley of UCLA identified here as a preseason potential breakout candidate  Lasley has done us proud by has posted 100 receiving yard games in 3 of 4 contests this year. We were high on him before the season and remain so.  He will have the opportunities to showcase his upside especially with The Rosen One flinging it all over the yard. 

Free Fallin'

The following players have fallen out of the Top 20:

• Andre Levrone of UVA had a 5/141/2 stat line yet fell from the overall #1 spot because his total receptions didn't qualify.
• Kwadarrius Smith of Akron posted a single catch for 15 yards vs. Bowling Green.
• J'Mon Moore of Mizzou and the rest of the Tigers ran into the buzzsaw called Auburn last week (he went 2/35/1)
• Alfonso Onunwor of Idaho had a bye week.
• Datrin Guyton of Bowling Green went 2/10/0 vs Akron.
• Chris Platt of Baylor looks to be out for the year with a knee injury suffered during the KSU game, unfortunately.
• Steven Sims, Jr. of Kansas went 6/96/1 vs, WVU, however, his total Receptions year to date are a bit under the minimum threshold. 
• Stanley Morgan, Jr. of Nebraska produced a stat line of 8/96/1 but that was not in line with his pro rata share.  As long as he keeps up solid performances averaging almost 100 yards per game, he will make his way back onto the list. 
• Trent Sherfield of Vanderbilt was quiet against the Florida Gators.
• Andre Wilson of UAB had a bye week,. 

ROI Game of the Week:  Double Dip!

Game 1 - Saturday Iowa State @ Oklahoma with Cyclone Hakeem Butler set to be tested by the #3 Sooners.  Keep an eye out for my dark horse QB candidate, Jacob Park to see how he rebounds after last week's setback against Texas. 

Game 2 - Saturday Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) pits former #1 ROI Datrin Guyton (BGSU) vs. current #6 James Gardner. 

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