Under The Microscope - 2018 NFL Draft QBs

OK, Let’s Get into It

At the end of the regular season, you read an analysis of the current NFL QB draft prospects to produce a Top 10 list based on statistical metrics.  This sort of analysis is intended to be fully "blind"...that is, a series of measures should be laid out and the figures calculated so that we have no ability to influence the ranking to fit any preconceived idea of how the "winners" should look. We ent back and completed the model by adding Bowl games and excluding dropped passes. 

QBs were ranked based on the following criteria:

• Yds/Att - Yards per Passing Attempt

• Att/INT - number of Attempts to generate 1 Interception

• INT/INC - The ratio of Interceptions to Incompletions

• TD/INT - Ratio of Touchdowns to Interceptions

• ATT/TD - Number of Passing Attempts to generate 1 TD. 

OA Rank = Overall rank inclusive of non-draft QBs
Metrics adjusted for receiver drops.  Minimum 200 attempts.

Disclaimer - The above does NOT represent a list of the "Best NFL Draft QBs" or "Boombear's Picks for the Coming Draft"; it is simply a way to present a series of statistical measures, which may or may not have relevance of any kind.   I'm so glad I got that off my chest.

So, here is what we found out. 

• If Logan Woodside is drafted and lights up training camp, I want The Other Guy's job on ESPN.  He was #1 for our post season QB statistical analysis and he's stayed firm. I'm a big fan of his quick delivery, his toughness and his ability to fling the ball down the field for distance and velocity. 
• Lamar Jackson was a respectable number 19 overall for the prior post season ranking but due to elimination of receiver drops from the calculation, he jumps to #3 overall.
• Danny Etling from LSU snuck up on this list because of his low INTs.  The Purdue transfer had a 2 year audition for the NFL at Baton Rouge so we will see how he performs at the Combine and during workouts.
• Rodney Dangerfield would love #6-#10...no respect.  Wolford, Lamb and Shimonek were solid leaders who should get a second glance this Pre-Draft season.  (Ferguson and Griggs have not been as thoroughly reviewed on video as the other three.) 

Hey, Where's Whatshisface?

Some unexplained force conditions us to expect certain names to be presented at the top of every list.  When they are not there, our Pavlovian drool begins to run, and our arms are up protesting this obvious error. When it is revealed the anointed ones were omitted from the list by design, choruses of "Don't overthink this!!" cascade like clockwork.  

The table above is "missing" some players.  Here they are:

#13.  JT. Barrett - Average Rank: 34.8

#22  Josh Rosen - A.R.: 44.2

#29  Sam Darnold - A.R.: 52.2.   

#38  Josh Allen - A.R.: 73.8

Before reacting, remember, this is one set of metrics selected by one person.  I'm sure I could broaden t the search crieria but hey, you have a computer.   Go crunch some numbers and see what you find.

Shameless Self Promotion

FINAL WEEK  FOR THE 2ND ANNUAL DRAFTTWITTER TOP 100 SURVEY pre Combine ballots!!!

Last year, 25 amateur, semi pro and professional scouts clicked through a simple Excel based ballot and created a Top 100 list of players that has successfully (thus far) proven to a better value than the players picked by our favorite GMs last year.  

Join the fun! To receive a ballot, send your name, email and social media handled for football discussion to boombearfootballmail@gmail.com  No pressure, just have fun.