Supply and Demand of the NFL Draft

As we slide into the final days before the 2018 NFL Draft, there has been a lot of talking about strength of position classes.  Is the QB class the strongest in years?  Is this WR class a bit light?  While the subjectivity of each opinion cannot be denied, let's take an objective look to see where teams should be focusing in terms of addressing position needs from potentially thin talent pools.

Methodology

Team Needs  

First, we started with team needs pulled from NFL.com which provided the top 5 needs for each team.  These were analyzed to determine what positions were most in demand.  Some positions were combined for consistency purposes. 

Player Availability

Next, based on 5 readily available Big Boards, the aggregate top 160 players were devised and separated by position for total number of players available.  The average draft position for each group was assessed to give us guidance of the perception of the strength of the group as a whole. 

Based on each teams' Top 5 needs all positions have an ample number of prospects within the first 160 selections to supply the demand (that is, 32 teams times the top 5 position needs based on NFL.com) EXCEPT:

• Offensive Line:  The league projects to need 30 OL while there are 26 available prospects assuming our methodology.  The Fulfillment Rate (that is, the rate at which the draft will fulfill the league "need" at each position) is negative at -13.3%.
• Quarterback:  The league needs 12 where as our availability analysis projects only 8 within the 160 pick range.  The Fulfillment Rate is -33.3%.
• Tight End:  The league needs 12 but there are only 7 for consideration leading to the lowest Fulfillment Rate of -41.7%.

By contrast, positions with positive Fulfillment Rates (more Top 160 prospects than Team Needs at that position) include Safety (25%), Linebacker (27.3%) and Running Back (85.7%).  Teams prioritizing these positions should have a great chance of picking up a top prospect.

Team Needs and Average Draft Position

Now that the needs have been analyzed, how do we determine the talent at each position?  For this undertaking, we take the average of each players' projected position in the top 160 list and compare:

Some player positions like FB and ST were excluded from the above. 

As we go from left to right on the table above, the talent pool thins out.  Looking at the teams with the lowest Fulfillment Rates, Quarterback and Offensive Line needs are in luck since they have a fairly deep group from which to select with the two composing the top talent pools.  Those with Tight End needs have a thin group, based on the rankings used, with an average ranking of 97.76.

Based on NFL.com teams' needs ranked from 1 (most urgent) to 5 (least urgent), we aggregated the player needs priority and represented them from 10 (most urgent) to 1 (least urgent) and then compared them side by side with their "ADP":

Looking at the Cornerback position on the far left, they are the most in demand position  (evidenced by their Yellow "Need Rank"column maxed out at 10), yet their ADP is about a 4, indicating the talent, overall is not considered top notch according to the sources we used.  By contrast, Running Backs are not a huge priority position in general, but they perceived talent is pretty high.  One would think that some pretty solid RBs will slip a bit as teams address other needs through the first 160 picks. 

Looking at the negative Fulfillment positions we can assume there will be a lot of Offensive Linemen and Quarterbacks drafted early and often, but we may also see some Tight Ends going a lot earlier than some might suspect, given the need but lack of depth at the position.  

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Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

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