2018-19 Pre-Season FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment

Return on Investment 

Back for another year of monitoring FBS college receivers who have the potential to be NFL starters.  Through analysis of statistical metrics, we will track the most efficient WRs throughout the season for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III football.

What is ROI?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.  

There are two components to ROI:

• Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.
• QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance. 

The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities.  This is not market share that only considers % of team receptions, which is one dimensional and lacks the context a measure like ROI can provide.

The numbers discussed in this space during the regular NCAA football season will not include target data until after the end of the season.  The data below includes it, as we are looking at data from 2016 and 2017.

This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro.  Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect.  ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names.  Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list.  The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.

ROI is not a leading indicator (that is, just because a guy has a high ROI rating, he is not mean he is a solid prospect). but a screening tool to help identify players who need to be watched on video.  Players who might otherwise been overlooked such as Chris Conley, Keelan Cole and Keke Coutee. 

2018 FBS Receiver Watch List

The 2018 Watch List players had the highest Composite ROI compared to the average over each of the last two NCAA football seasons. 

Keep in mind, this is not a draft ranking or Top WR list; ROI is simply a tool to isolate efficient WRs to further analyze.

#6 Jon'Vea Johnson - Toledo 27.7% more efficient than average

Not Diontae Johnson, the Rockets' leading statistical receiver for 2017, but the 6'0" 188 lbs redshirt Senior from Gary, Indiana.  His father, Jason Johnson, played a few years in the NFL as a receiver before becoming a high school coach, so Jon'Vea has two traits I especially love in receivers (pedigree and son of a coach).  During high school, Jon'Vea was All-State in football and track while also playing basketball. 

Despite a solid 2017 season of 42/689/5 by Jon'Vea, it will be an uphill climb for him to gain notoriety.  Diontae will continue to be WR1 for Toledo and Cody Thompson will be returning after an injury shortened 2017 - both of whom are likely to overshadow Jon'Vea statistically.  Also, there is the challenge of replacing QB Logan Woodside, now in the NFL.  Based on efficiency, he is poised to continue to lead the team in that regard. 

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#5 Bryan Edwards - South Carolina  40.4% more efficient than average

You are likely thinking, for the second straight time, right school, wrong player.  Deebo Samuel has earned his place in the hearts of Gamecock fans everywhere, but  6'3" 220 lbs Edwards (from Conway High in South Carolina) has also proven himself on and off the field.  As a true sophomore last year, he earned the Steve Spurrier award as the team's offensive MVP as well as the Harold White GPA award.  He was a freshman All American and was a South Carolina "Mr. Football" finalist in high school. Going 64/793/5 in 2017 and with Jake Bentley returning as one of the SEC's best QBs, Edwards has all the upside to continue his highly efficient production.

#4 Scott Miller Bowling Green 77.2% more efficient than average
He may not be a household name and at 5'11' 166 lbs, he may not look the part (actually, Miller is listed at exactly 6 lbs more than his weight at Barrington (Ill) HS)but Scott Miller is a top flight football player.  He is a highly efficient receiver and he can kill you in the return game.  With QB Jarret Doege returning after a stellar freshman campaign, keep an eye on Miller this year.

#3 James Proche SMU 95.4% more efficient than average

While the world watched NFL destined Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn last year, James Proche (5'11', 185 lbs) was quietly the most efficient receiver by far on the squad.  The 4-Star athlete was ranked the 33rd best player in Dallas his senior year at Desoto HS (Dallas).  With the departure of Sutton and Quinn, and QB Ben Hicks returning for his 3rd year as starter, Proche will be able to prove if he can produce vs opponents CB1.

#2 James Gardner Miami (OH) 101.7% more efficient than average
At 6'4" 217 lbs, Gardner was team captain, All-State and earned 4 letters in basketball at Fort Lauderdale HS but he is more than just sports.  In 2017, he was named to the Wuerffel Award watch list for his involvement in the community.  Such leadership is doubtless a huge part of his success. If you get a chance to watch Miami of Ohio this year, keep an eye out for Gardner.  He is big, strong and is not afraid to initiate first contact after the catch.

#1 Steven Sims Jr. Kansas 106.0% more efficient than average
Coming out of Travis HS (Houston), the 5'10" 170 lbs Sims received only 1 FBS offer... from Kansas.  Both sides must be pleased that he did. Sims led the Jayhawks in receiving yards last year and is poised to repeat with Sr. quarterback Peyton Bender returning.

That is your FBS top ROI WR watchlist for preseason 2018.  Watch this space for the ROI watchlists for FCS, Division II and Division III!


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Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

Check out the People's Top 100 NFL Draft 2018 prospects created by football fans like you!

2nd Annual The People's NFL Draft Top 100 - Deep Dive

Got to Give the People, Give the People What They Want

Let's look back at the 2018 NFL draft compared to the 2nd Annual "The People's" Top 100 survey.  For those unfamiliar, this author asked talent evaluators for their Top 100 players both pre and post Combine and aggregated the results.  The column reviewing the 2017 NFL Draft is located here.  

The results will be tracked year after year to show how The Peoples' results fare against the actual draft.  The comparison of the People vs the NFL for the last year's 2017 draft can be found here. 

For now, the People's results for the 2018 Draft have been compared to the actual to determine what selections were the biggest values and which were the biggest reaches. 

Value, Value, Value...

Value is basically a comparison of two view points - in this case, we need to determine how much does Player X mean to the NFL in comparison to The People.

For our analysis, each player on The Peoples' Top 100 is compared to his placing in the actual draft to determine a rate of value (undervalued or overvalued) based on their rookie contract value for their actual draft position compared to the contract value at our draft position. The methodology is easier to understand in context, so let's get into it.

Best Values

There are always players who drop for silly reasons and others who simply fall off the mass media radar during the College Football season.  But, there are always astute scouts and coaches who will continue to wait patiently and take advantage of these overlooked gems.

• The players in the table were 1 Standard Deviation above all other "value" players, that is those whose People's Rank was better than their Actual Draft Position.
• Value is not simply a function of the difference between the Rank and actual Draft spot, it depends on the difference in the contract values between the two.  
• Because the rookie salary scale is such a steep curve, you can have  Meeks fall 192 places (as an UDFA, we assumed a Draft position of 259) and not be a better value than guys who fell far fewer places because they were projected to go higher. 
• Maurice Hurst, a guy who had me screaming at the television for teams to draft as he went into freefall, finally went to Oakland at 140 overall after penciling out to the #20 player based on the Peoples' Aggregate Top 100.  
• It seems GMs were concerned because a heart issue was detected during Combine physicals.
• Hurst has indicated he went though the exact same issue when he got to Michigan and, obviously, it turned out not to be a hindrance to his stellar career as a Wolverine. 
• His overall value is being recognized in the media now, as USAToday believes, "...he could be the biggest steal of this year's draft."
• There were 3 other Peoples' Top 20 players who ended up on the biggest values list. 
• Harold Landry - Peoples' Rank #10; Actually Drafted #41 - There were many questions about his 2017 performance being off 2016 pace but Landry was clearly slowed by an injury early in the season.  The Titans may have gotten great value here. 
• Derrius Guice - Peoples' Rank #13; Actually Drafted #59 - The Rumor Mill was just churning at top speed during the NFL draft as to why Guice, who put up statistical performances that would make his LSU predecessor Leonard Fournette envious, was in freefall. WAS finally pulled the trigger in the late 2nd round getting him at about an 80% discount. 
• Connor Williams - Peoples' Rank #18; Actually Drafted #50 - Injury derailed his season and concerns about where on the Offensive Line to play him given his measurables were cited are reasons to give GMs pause. (This College Tackle to NFL Guard argument is tricky, as he played Tackle against guys now in the NFL for a couple of years and was effective then; why would he suddenly be a liability?).  And just like that, Dallas continues to stockpile studs on that OLine.  

Questionable Value

Now, this is not questioning the prospect - keep in mind, our list was for the Top 100 players, clearly the creme de la creme.  However, given our methodology, here are the players who went significantly higher than the People thought they might go.

• The players in the table were greater than 1 Standard Deviation below all other "overvalued" players, that is those whose People's Rank was worse than their Actual Draft Position.
• Leighton Vander Esch (Peoples' Rank #80; Actually Drafted #19) was a beast at Boise State but in terms of being a proven commodity with just 1 year as a starter, time will tell if this suprise 1st rounder will prove the Peoples' Top 100 wrong.    Jerry Jones paid a 416% premium to bring him to Dallas so expectations will be high. 
• As I focus on the WR position, I have watched a lot of D.J. Moore (Peoples' Rank #51; Actually Drafted #24) and there is a lot to be excited about.  But as the first WR selected?!  That was not foreseen by many.  Moore definitely benefited from a stellar performance at the NFL Player Combine where this author had him as the 2nd most athletic receiver.  But a first round commitment for a receiver warrants certain expectations that, evidently, the NFL expects Moore to fulfill, but the People do not.  
• Josh Allen (Peoples' Rank #37; Actually Drafted #7) benefited as much as anyone from a solid Combine performance and it paid him off on draft day where Buffalo valued him 275% more than the People, who had signal callers Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Jackson ahead of Allen. 

BY POSITION

When looking at the value from a position standpoint, we have the following:

Only 95 picks are included in the table above because the People and the NFL agreed on 5  picks.

• Total - The number of players at that position selected in the Top 100
• Sum - The cumulative total of each player's value position.
• #Over/#Under - Each represents the number of players at that position in that category. 
• Averages
• Avg Over = The Overvalue Position of the average player at that position.
• Avg Under = The Undervalue Position of the average player at that position
• Average = The Average Value Position for each player at that position. 

Overall, the league did pretty well, overvaluing just 32% in the People's Top 100.  

Absolutely...PERFECT - The People and the NFL agreed upon:

• Saquon Barkley at #2
• Roquon Smith at #8
• Taven (also known as Tavquon) Bryan at #29
• Nick ("Nickquon") Chubb at #35
• Mason ("Masquon") Cole at #97

Missed It By THAT Much - The People and the NFL differed on D.J. Chark and Ian Thomas by just 1 selection.

Hi-Lo - Here are the highest and lowest values (based on The People's rankings) per position:

• Tight End
• Best Value: Mark Andrews selected #86 by BAL (39.0% discount)
• Questionable Value:  Hayden Hurst selected  #25 also by BAL (275.5% premium) 
• Linebacker
• Best Value: Malik Jefferson selected #78 by CIN  (60.2% discount)
• Questionable Value:  Vander Esch (See above) 
• "EDGE"
• Best Value: Landry (See above)
• Questionable Value:  Uchenna Nwosu selected  #48 by LAC (90.2% premium) 
• Offensive Line
• Best Value: Tyrell Crosby selected # 153 by DET (66.6% discount; a hell of a deal.)
• Questionable Value:  Kolton Miller selected  #15  also by BAL (238.1% premium) 
• Quarterback
• Best Value: Lamar Jackson selected #32 by BAL (46.6% discount)
• Questionable Value:  Allen (See above)
• Running Back
• Best Value: Guice (see above)
• Questionable Value:  Rashaad Penny selected  #27 by SEA (148.8% premium) 
• Cornerback
• Best Value: Isaiah Oliver selected #58 by ATL (66.2% discount)
• Questionable Value:  Denzel Ward selected  #4 by CLE (87.7% premium) 
• Safety
• Best Value: Ronnie Harrison selected #93 by JAX (77.5% discount)
• Questionable Value:  Jessie Bates selected  #54 by CIN (64.6% premium) 
• Wide Receiver
• Best Value:  Auden Tate selected #253 by CIN (61.8% discount)
• Questionable Value:  Moore (see above) 
• Defensive Line
• Best Value: Hurst (See above)
• Questionable Value:  Da'Ron Payne  selected  #13 by WAS (41.4% premium) 

Why You Treat Me So Bad? Award - Mike Hughes was assessed an Overvalued position of almost 44% when he was picked at #30 by MIN.  The People had him at 33 (just 3 places off) but the rookie contact scale drops off dramatically after the first round. 

By Team

Teams were ranked in four categories: (1) Range of Value selections; (2) Average Value Position drafted,  (3) Percentage of picks at  par to value or better and (4) Cumulative Value Position for all draftees. 

Avg Rank indicates that Team's average Rank (relative to the other 32 teams) for each of the above four criteria. 

The teams in Bold Italics highlighted in Green are playoff teams from 2017.

The Rich Get Richer

• 50% of the playoff teams rested in the Top 10 best drafts in terms of player value. 
• The mean for Avg Rank was 16.5; 75% of last year's playoff teams were above the mean. 
• Playoff teams had the Most and Least efficient drafts from our value standpoint
• LAR picked up Ogbonnia Okoronkwo at 160 when the People had him at 57 (a 60.0% discount) and John Kelly at 176, compared to 90 for value of -47.1%.
• CAR selected Ian Thomas at 101, 1 place off the People for a discount of about 1.3%, Donte Jackson was picked up at 55 compared to the 61 rank by our survey, worth a 13.7% premium but D.J. Moore drove this ranking with his 409% premium  (see above).

Conclusion

After the 2018 season, return to this space for a comparison of how the Peoples' Top 100 compared to the actual NFL draft in terms of on the field performance.  We will also update the 2017 People's Top 100 performance vs. the League when we will have 2 years of data.  Last year we outperformed the league in terms of how our draft picks performed considering where they were drafted (from a value perspective) and so we will look to keep each People's list updated year after year to keep marking how well we perform. 

In the interim, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @boombearjr.