2018-19 Pre-Season FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment

Return on Investment 

Back for another year of monitoring FBS college receivers who have the potential to be NFL starters.  Through analysis of statistical metrics, we will track the most efficient WRs throughout the season for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III football.

What is ROI?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.  

There are two components to ROI:

• Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.
• QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance. 

The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities.  This is not market share that only considers % of team receptions, which is one dimensional and lacks the context a measure like ROI can provide.

The numbers discussed in this space during the regular NCAA football season will not include target data until after the end of the season.  The data below includes it, as we are looking at data from 2016 and 2017.

This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro.  Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect.  ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names.  Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list.  The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.

ROI is not a leading indicator (that is, just because a guy has a high ROI rating, he is not mean he is a solid prospect). but a screening tool to help identify players who need to be watched on video.  Players who might otherwise been overlooked such as Chris Conley, Keelan Cole and Keke Coutee. 

2018 FBS Receiver Watch List

The 2018 Watch List players had the highest Composite ROI compared to the average over each of the last two NCAA football seasons. 

Keep in mind, this is not a draft ranking or Top WR list; ROI is simply a tool to isolate efficient WRs to further analyze.

#6 Jon'Vea Johnson - Toledo 27.7% more efficient than average

Not Diontae Johnson, the Rockets' leading statistical receiver for 2017, but the 6'0" 188 lbs redshirt Senior from Gary, Indiana.  His father, Jason Johnson, played a few years in the NFL as a receiver before becoming a high school coach, so Jon'Vea has two traits I especially love in receivers (pedigree and son of a coach).  During high school, Jon'Vea was All-State in football and track while also playing basketball. 

Despite a solid 2017 season of 42/689/5 by Jon'Vea, it will be an uphill climb for him to gain notoriety.  Diontae will continue to be WR1 for Toledo and Cody Thompson will be returning after an injury shortened 2017 - both of whom are likely to overshadow Jon'Vea statistically.  Also, there is the challenge of replacing QB Logan Woodside, now in the NFL.  Based on efficiency, he is poised to continue to lead the team in that regard. 

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#5 Bryan Edwards - South Carolina  40.4% more efficient than average

You are likely thinking, for the second straight time, right school, wrong player.  Deebo Samuel has earned his place in the hearts of Gamecock fans everywhere, but  6'3" 220 lbs Edwards (from Conway High in South Carolina) has also proven himself on and off the field.  As a true sophomore last year, he earned the Steve Spurrier award as the team's offensive MVP as well as the Harold White GPA award.  He was a freshman All American and was a South Carolina "Mr. Football" finalist in high school. Going 64/793/5 in 2017 and with Jake Bentley returning as one of the SEC's best QBs, Edwards has all the upside to continue his highly efficient production.

#4 Scott Miller Bowling Green 77.2% more efficient than average
He may not be a household name and at 5'11' 166 lbs, he may not look the part (actually, Miller is listed at exactly 6 lbs more than his weight at Barrington (Ill) HS)but Scott Miller is a top flight football player.  He is a highly efficient receiver and he can kill you in the return game.  With QB Jarret Doege returning after a stellar freshman campaign, keep an eye on Miller this year.

#3 James Proche SMU 95.4% more efficient than average

While the world watched NFL destined Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn last year, James Proche (5'11', 185 lbs) was quietly the most efficient receiver by far on the squad.  The 4-Star athlete was ranked the 33rd best player in Dallas his senior year at Desoto HS (Dallas).  With the departure of Sutton and Quinn, and QB Ben Hicks returning for his 3rd year as starter, Proche will be able to prove if he can produce vs opponents CB1.

#2 James Gardner Miami (OH) 101.7% more efficient than average
At 6'4" 217 lbs, Gardner was team captain, All-State and earned 4 letters in basketball at Fort Lauderdale HS but he is more than just sports.  In 2017, he was named to the Wuerffel Award watch list for his involvement in the community.  Such leadership is doubtless a huge part of his success. If you get a chance to watch Miami of Ohio this year, keep an eye out for Gardner.  He is big, strong and is not afraid to initiate first contact after the catch.

#1 Steven Sims Jr. Kansas 106.0% more efficient than average
Coming out of Travis HS (Houston), the 5'10" 170 lbs Sims received only 1 FBS offer... from Kansas.  Both sides must be pleased that he did. Sims led the Jayhawks in receiving yards last year and is poised to repeat with Sr. quarterback Peyton Bender returning.

That is your FBS top ROI WR watchlist for preseason 2018.  Watch this space for the ROI watchlists for FCS, Division II and Division III!


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