Initial 2018 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top 20 Rank

Week 3 of FBS Means One Thing...

The initial Return on Investment list is generated for the new College Football season!  Now that we have at least 3 games worth of data, we can now plug the data into our model to help us identify under the radar NFL prospects. For those of you not familiar with ROI it is an efficiency measure that allows college receivers to be measured side by side.  Regardless if a player is in a run heavy or pass heavy offense or is a second option in an offense that has a household name receiver as its focal point, ROI clarifies so we can see who gets the most production out of his opportunities. The FBS list will be updated weekly with rotational coverage of FCS, Division II and Division III through the Bowl/Championship season all the way to the NFL Player Draft where we hope to see some ROI stand outs like  like Chris Conley of the Chiefs, Keelan Cole of the Jaguars, Mack Hollins of the Eagles and rookie Pittsburgh Steeler James Washington have in past years. Let's get into it...

FBS Top 20

Notes:

• The average player listed on the Top 150 in terms of Reception yards had an average ROI of 24.7%.
• JJ Arcega-Whiteside is 250% more efficient than the average WR, per the ROI measure
• Bryan Edwards is the only name from the preseason ROI Watch List (please see the article here) to debut on the 2018 list. 
• Using our body density measure, the biggest bodied WRs are Arcega-Whiteside  at 6'3" 222 lbs (makes sense since both his parents were professional basketball players), Jamal Custis at 6'5" 224 lbs and Darnell Salomon at 6'3" 215lbs.  The slightest of frame are Drew Dan, all 6'3" 180 lbs of him, Papi White at 5'9" 168 lbs and Bailey Gaither at 6'1" 178 lbs.
• Welcome back, Jalen Guyton!  He is the only returning WR to have appeared on multiple ROI lists from the 2017 season. 
• Brand Name vs. No Name -  The next time you watch these big brand name players being mentioned as NFL prospects, make sure to keep an eye on their lesser known but superior ROI teammates:
• South Carolina brand name Deebo Samuel vs. No Name Bryan Edwards
• Buffalo brand name:  Anthony Johnson vs No Name K/.J. Osborn
• Hawai'i brand name: John Ursua vs. No Name JoJo Ward
• Plan B - The following all excel at other sports besides football:
• Custis won state championship in basketball (HS)
• Green won 5 letters in HS basketball (yes, he played varsity in the 8th grade).
• Hall won gold medals at the Junior Olympics for the high jump and pentathlon.
• Lloyd previously played on the Duke University baseball team and was a high school quarterback.

FCS

The average ROI for the Top 150 FCS WRs was 32.5% which means top man Devonte Dedmon can argue he is 179% more efficient than the average receiver in the division.

Division II

With an average ROI of 28.4% for D2 Top 150 Reception Yard players, Khalig Muhammad is 231% more efficient than those at the 50th percentile.

Division III

With the average Top 150 Reception Yards receiver ROI being 29.8%, Divison III is the second most efficient of the four NCAA divisions.  And so, with an average ROI of 123.3% Jacob Jodway is 314% more efficient than average, which is the highest ROI compared to benchmark by any of the 600 WRs included in this week's analysis.


Yes, this guy:

Hello, how are you? I'm the baddest WR in college football.

But hey, you can't judge a book by it's cover so do some research and see what you can come up with on Double J.  Search for Olivet games and you'll see he plays with a lot of passion.  He made 1st Team All Conference as a junior last year, so that supports the ROI findings that he's a bad, bad man on the gridiron.  Looks pretty nice in real life, though.

Touchdown Machine

Another interesting metric to track is Touchdown efficiency which is Recs/TDs compared to average for a player's division.   The best Reception to TD ratios for the Top 20 ROI WRs representing each of the 4 NCAA divisions:

4th Place: Division II - Brody Oliver of Colorado School of Mines (Their nickname?  The orediggers...not sure how I feel about that one) has a REC/TD ratio of 2.6 compared to the D2 average of 5.0 or 92.3% above average.

3rd Place: FCS - Jazz Ferguson of Northwestern State with a TD every 3.8 receptions compared to the average of 7.8 receptions or 107% above average.

2nd Place: Division III - Shenandoah's Casey Stewart has scored a TD every 2.0 receptions which, compared to the average of 5.3, is 110% above average.  

1st Place:  FBS - JJ Arcega-Whiteside of Stanford had a Rec/TD ratio of 2.6 but because the average is 7.4, his ratio is 185% above average (charmed life, this guy).

Check out your ROI updates every week for all 4 NCAA divisions right here!

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Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

Check out the People's Top 100 NFL Draft 2018 prospects created by football fans like you!