UPDATED 1/5/19!! Complete ROI Figures for FBS 2018 Season

Final 2018-2019 Return on Investment for FBS!

Since week 1, the ROI listings were based exclusively on catches and reception yards.  Just like the prior years, the Complete ROI figures will exclude running back statistics from team aggregate statistics and consider target information so that we can truly understand what each player did with his opportunities relative to his team and, using that info, how he compares to his peers.

Why ROI?

Return on Investment (ROI) began nearly 5 years ago in an attempt to try and identify draft eligible wide receivers who may have huge potential, but were not part of any hype machine that would make them household names.  After a natural evolutionary process, this current version of ROI has been in place 3 years and has put the spotlight on players like Kenny Golliday (DET), Cooper Kupp (LAR), Mack Hollins (PHI), Tim Patrick (DEN) and Keke Coutee (HOU). Each week through the season the top ROI receivers were presented based and the final FBS rankings are listed below.  Although there are high ROI players from FCS and DII in the NFL who were presented in this space, the difficulty in obtaining all the data required for complete ROI prohibits inclusion of non-FBS rankings here.
Updated 1/5/19:  Thanks to Jimmy Williams for pointing out the original list had suffered from inadvertent filters.  The table and commentary are updated.

Ground Rules

So what goes into ROI?

1. Player target, reception and receiving yard statistics for the top 150 receivers in terms of receiving yards are analyzed on a peer basis.
2. Draft likely players are included initially (juniors and seniors) with declaring underclassment added as they make announcements.
3. The three "raw" ROI metrics resulting from these analyses are combined to provide an aggregate ROI number.
4. Each player's aggregate ROI number is compared to the average to present how much better or worse than average he is; this is the ROI number discussed below.
5. Any player with total receptions at least 1 standard deviation within average or better qualifies for inclusion in the final list (this is the Sammy Coates-Devin Smith Rule to screen out players who may have better results because they are used as deep threats only).

Touchdowns are not included in ROI because there are many factors beyond a receivers skill level that could result in a score.  However, a metric comparing a player's receptions/TD rate to that of the rest of his team is included to give an idea of how much the player impacts the team in terms of scoring. This "TD Rate" compares performance to each players teammates, not directly to each other. 

So Who Are the Most Efficient WRs in FBS?

The key for the above table is as follows:

Green Bold	Tier I
Green	Tier II
Blue	Tier III
Yellow	Tier IV
Orange	Tier V
Orange Bold	Tier VI

Notes:

1. Tier I - Damion Willis Stands Alone:  After spending many weeks on the raw ROI listings throughout the 2018 FBS season,  the  6'4" 199 lbs Troy receiver settles at the top spot at an astounding 288% more efficient than average - that's about twice the ROI of fourth place finisher, my draft crush, Hakeem Butler.  He is our only Tier I ROI talent having converted 22.5% of Troy receiver targets into 23.1% of team receptions and 33.0% team reception yards.  Willis was 1st team all Sun Belt and was an all state (MS) selection in high school.  Although only regular season stats are included in ROI, Willis went off for 13/110/2 vs. Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl.  Willis also showed out in terms of TD efficiency producing at a rate 284% faster than average compared to his peer group. 
2. Tier II - The Magnificent Seven: Mooney, Anthony and Olabisi Johnson, Butler, Miller, Campbell and Patmon all showed out with ROI efficiency at least 118% better than average - their rate of production in relation to their opportunities were more than twice the sample average.  This is what ROI is all about; low profile guys who ball out but are not at the fore front of everyone's "top" draft prospect lists.  Butler proved to be the Cyclones touchdown machine with TD efficiency of over 300%.
3. Tier III - Above Average with 1 StDev:  Of course, the masses comprise the middle and on the positive side of the mean we have some names who you may have heard tossed around as potential prospects like Isabella from UMass (who led FBS in receiving yards during the regular season) and Marquis "Hollywood" Brown from Oklahoma.  
4. Tier IV - Below Average ROI with 1 StDev: Below the mean, yes, but not necessarily "bad".  These players are on the other side of the mean, within 1 standard deviation of the average.  Future potential stars and likely high draft picks Harry of ASU, Johnson of Texas and Campbell from THE Ohio State University have built a solid track record and have all the physical tools to succeed at the next level.  You will find some likely top draft picks in this list, which shows ROI is better at discovering gems than determining busts 
5. Tier V -  How the Mighty Have Fallen:  Last year, Guyton, Thompson and Brady were constantly high ROI performers.  This year, they have not repeated.  Guyton faced competition from Bussey at North Texas (see table above) , Thompson (a favorite of mine last year) was rebounding from a season ending injury and it will take a bit of study to find out what is driving Brady's dip (possibly change in QB?).
6. Tier VI -  Detective Time: Simply being near the bottom of the ROI list is no reason to abandon a prospect;  Lodge is a highly regarded and talented prospect but his 26.7% target rate 25.0% reception rate and 22.0% reception yard rate reflects performance -223.5% below the sample average.  Most likely, his top flight receiving corp impacted his opportunities and potentially, his overall efficiency.

ROI IS NOT A LEADING INDICATOR!!!!

As I have mentioned frequently, ROI is not a WR ranking system.  There will be many high ROI guys you will never hear from again and there are guys at the bottom of the list GMs will trade up to get.  This is simply another tool to help screen out players who may not get as much media attention for additional research.  

*************************************************************

What time is it?  DraftTwitter Top 100 Time! Now is your chance to participate in the annual aggregate top 100 ranking of draft prospects.  It's fun, it's free and it's a great way to interact with talent evaluators of all levels. Check out the 2nd annual results to get an idea of what we do and follow me on Twitter for updates on receiving the easy online ballot which will be available soon!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr)