3rd Annual The People's Top 100 Aggregate NFL Prospects List - Pre-Combine

Third Time's a Charm

Once is a pipe dream, twice is dumb luck, third time means we know what we are doing.  Three years ago, I set out to bring together player evaluators from all walks of life to see if we could evaluate and select players on par with pro scouts.  By collecting various opinions, aggregating the results and tracking the production of players on our list vs. those of professional evaluators and the actual draft, we aim to inform and have fun.  

So I present to you, the third annual Top 100 Pre-Combine NFL Draft prospect list created for the people, by the people.

" -Prior" represents the difference in Avg Score between a player and the one ranked before him..

"- Pos Leader" represents the difference in Avg Score between a player and the one ranked before him in the same position. 

Things to Remember:

• This first pre-Combine ballot is based on a smaller sample of responses than we will use for our final Pre-Draft Top 100. 
•  This is an aggregation and variances tend to smooth out as we have more opinions.
• Because many evaluators use analytics for their process, the Combine testing scores must be gathered to complete their  ballots so those folks cannot submit pre-Combine.
• Once we get closer to the draft and have about 4 or 5 times as many ballots making up the sample, the results will look much different. 
• With fewer ballots, outliers will get magnified and so it's key to have a large data sample to smooth out outliers and reach a consensus. 
• This is just for fun so don't get all wound up because your favorite prospects are not on the list.

And finally, if you don't like the results, I have a great idea, CONTRIBUTE by getting your own ballot and stop getting mad at the 4 Letter Network's draft "experts" - you know more than they do!  The more opinions we have, the better the results of our Aggregated list. 

Let's take a look inside the numbers:

• # represents the number of players at each respective position in the Top 100.
• Edge Rushers and Wide Receivers have the highest representation with 14 while Centers (2)  edged out Guards (4) for the fewest.
• ADP = average draft position of each position based on their Top 100 players
• Offensive Tackles had the best ADP at 37.4 while Quarterbacks are kinda sketchy with ADP of 60.3.
• % Favorite = number of players in the top half of the range for that position
• Offensive Tackles were highly regarded with 75% favorable ratings.  Running Backs were not so lucky with only 2 of 7 being favorable. 
• Avg Variance = for each position, the average number of picks between selections 
• The average variance between successive Wide Receiver selections was lowest while LBs had the most space between selections.
• StDev = the standard deviation of the average variance
• Guards are seen as the most similar as their standard deviation was lowest while Quarterbacks are a crap shoot at 15.07.

This is being written while the 2019 Combine takes place and I can assure you those test scores will, as always, have a huge impact on the final aggregation.  If you don't submit your own ballot, just make sure to keep watching this blog for NFL Draft commentary.  

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You Know You're Smarter than the Talking Heads...Prove It!

Voting for the 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is going on through the week of April 19th  (the week before the 2019 Draft)!  

Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to  boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!  

No pressure, just have fun.