Sunday, April 23, 2017

The DraftTwitter Top 100


The DraftTwitter Top 100

After several months of work of 30+ different scouts over two surveys, Twitterverse has provided the DraftTwitter Top 100 NFL Prospects List.  Twitter NFL scouts you may follow contributed their lists of the 100 best players in this year’s NFL Draft, which kicks off this Thursday.  Two surveys were completed, one before the February Player Combine (results can be seen Here) and one after.   Players were given scores based on rankings (100 points for the overall #1 ranked player, 99 points for #2 all the way down to 1 point for the 100th player). The survey results were aggregated and the Final Top 100 prospects are listed below:




SOURCE DATA FROM CBSSPORTS.COMPoints BehindSurvey 1Change vs
RANKPLAYERPOS.POS. RANKSCHOOLCLASSHT. (Inches)WT.DensityTOTALPlayer AboveOverall #1 RankSurvey 1
1Myles GarrettDE1Texas A&MJr                   76268       3.5399.8000.0010
2Jamal AdamsSS1LSUJr                   72211       2.9392.60-7.20-7.2031
3Jonathan AllenDT1AlabamaSr                   75291       3.8890.75-1.85-9.052-1
4Solomon ThomasDE2StanfordrSo                   74275       3.7290.00-0.75-9.8040
5O.J. HowardTE1AlabamaSr                   78249       3.1989.10-0.90-10.70138
6Reuben FosterILB1AlabamaSr                   73236       3.2387.00-2.10-12.8093
7Marshon LattimoreCB1Ohio StaterSo                   72195       2.7186.26-0.74-13.542013
8Leonard FournetteRB1LSUJr                   73230       3.1585.45-0.81-14.355-3
9Corey DavisWR1Western MichiganSr                   75213       2.8483.79-1.66-16.01112
10Malik HookerFS1Ohio StaterSo                   74205       2.7782.95-0.84-16.858-2
11Christian McCaffreyRB2StanfordJr                   72202       2.8182.74-0.21-17.062413
12Malik McDowellDT2Michigan StateJr                   77276       3.5882.60-0.14-17.20197
13Dalvin CookRB3Florida StateJr                   71206       2.9077.75-4.85-22.056-7
14Mike WilliamsWR2ClemsonrJr                   75225       3.0076.25-1.50-23.557-7
15Derek BarnettDE3TennesseeJr                   75265       3.5375.05-1.20-24.7510-5
16John RossWR3WashingtonrJr                   71190       2.6875.00-0.05-24.802812
17Gareon ConleyCB2Ohio StaterJr                   72195       2.7174.58-0.42-25.224326
18Deshaun WatsonQB1ClemsonJr                   74215       2.9174.53-0.05-25.2715-3
19Marlon HumphreyCB3AlabamarSo                   73196       2.6873.16-1.37-26.642910
20Joe MixonRB4OklahomarSo                   73226       3.1073.11-0.05-26.695333
21Cam RobinsonOT1AlabamaJr                   78310       3.9771.50-1.61-28.30221
22Haason ReddickOLB1TemplerSr                   73237       3.2571.15-0.35-28.655028
23Forrest LampOG1Western KentuckyrSr                   76305       4.0170.53-0.62-29.274219
24Mitch TrubiskyQB2North CarolinarJr                   75220       2.9369.50-1.03-30.30273
25Zach CunninghamOLB2VanderbiltrJr                   75230       3.0768.21-1.29-31.5917-8
26Charles HarrisDE4MissourirJr                   75255       3.4067.78-0.43-32.02315
27Budda BakerFS2WashingtonJr                   70192       2.7466.74-1.04-33.06347
28David NjokuTE2Miami (Fla.)rSo                   76240       3.1665.75-0.99-34.05324
29Garett BollesOT2UtahJr                   77296       3.8464.32-1.43-35.484112
30Quincy WilsonCB4FloridaJr                   72209       2.9063.47-0.84-36.33355
31Ryan RamczykOT3WisconsinrJr                   77314       4.0863.45-0.02-36.3516-15
32Takkarist McKinleyOLB3UCLASr                   74258       3.4961.75-1.70-38.0512-20
33Carl LawsonDE5AuburnrJr                   74253       3.4261.35-0.40-38.4530-3
34Patrick Mahomes IIQB3Texas TechJr                   74229       3.0960.50-0.85-39.30395
35Taco CharltonDE6MichiganSr                   77272       3.5360.47-0.03-39.3326-9
36Jabrill PeppersSS2MichiganrSo                   72205       2.8559.16-1.32-40.6421-15
37DeShone KizerQB4Notre DamerSo                   76230       3.0358.74-0.42-41.0625-12
38Evan EngramTE3Ole MissSr                   75236       3.1556.74-2.00-43.065820
39Tim WilliamsOLB4AlabamaSr                   75252       3.3654.40-2.34-45.4018-21
40Jarrad DavisILB2FloridaSr                   73238       3.2653.30-1.10-46.5036-4
41T.J. WattOLB5WisconsinrJr                   76243       3.2052.72-0.58-47.087635
42Sidney JonesCB5WashingtonJr                   72181       2.5151.30-1.42-48.5014-28
43Dan FeeneyOG2IndianarSr                   76304       4.0050.89-0.41-48.9133-10
44Chidobe AwuzieCB6ColoradoSr                   71205       2.8948.67-2.23-51.137834
45Raekwon McMillanILB3Ohio StateJr                   74240       3.2448.17-0.50-51.636015
46Kevin KingCB7WashingtonSr                   75192       2.5647.78-0.39-52.029448
47Tre'Davious WhiteCB8LSUSr                   72184       2.5647.11-0.67-52.6938-9
48Cordrea TankersleyCB9ClemsonSr                   72200       2.7846.44-0.67-53.3640-8
49Obi MelifonwuSS3ConnecticutrSr                   76219       2.8843.61-2.83-56.198132
50Pat ElfleinC1Ohio StaterSr                   74300       4.0542.79-0.82-57.0148-2
51Chris WormleyDT3MichiganrSr                   77297       3.8642.58-0.21-57.226110
52Teez TaborCB10FloridaJr                   72201       2.7941.05-1.53-58.7523-29
53Taylor MotonOT4Western MichiganrSr                   77330       4.2939.78-1.27-60.027724
54Zay JonesWR4East CarolinaSr                   74202       2.7339.50-0.28-60.307016
55Caleb BrantleyDT4FloridarJr                   74297       4.0138.94-0.56-60.8637-18
56Adoree' JacksonCB11Southern CaliforniaJr                   71185       2.6138.63-0.31-61.1746-10
57Curtis SamuelWR5Ohio StateJr                   71200       2.8238.06-0.58-61.74570
58Derek RiversDE7Youngstown StateSr                   76250       3.2937.00-1.06-62.80n/a                -  
59JuJu Smith-SchusterWR6Southern CaliforniaJr                   74220       2.9736.17-0.83-63.6347-12
60Tyus BowserOLB6HoustonSr                   74244       3.3035.28-0.89-64.52n/a                -  
61Alvin KamaraRB5TennesseerJr                   70215       3.0734.78-0.50-65.02621
62Marcus WilliamsFS3UtahJr                   72195       2.7134.58-0.20-65.22719
63Desmond KingCB12IowaSr                   71206       2.9034.39-0.19-65.4149-14
64Dion DawkinsOG3TempleSr                   76317       4.1733.50-0.89-66.308016
Injured
65
Jordan WillisDE8Kansas StateSr                   76255       3.3632.33-1.17-67.478217
66Dorian JohnsonOG4PittsburghSr                   77300       3.9029.95-2.39-69.85682
67Montravius AdamsDT5AuburnSr                   75308       4.1128.56-1.39-71.2459-8
68Chris GodwinWR7Penn StateJr                   73205       2.8127.33-1.22-72.47n/a                -  
69Fabian MoreauCB13UCLArSr                   72205       2.8527.06-0.28-72.74n/a                -  
70Jourdan LewisCB14MichiganSr                   70188       2.6926.16-0.90-73.6444-26
71Ethan PocicC2LSUSr                   78307       3.9424.63-1.53-75.1751-20
72Ryan AndersonOLB7AlabamarSr                   74258       3.4924.00-0.63-75.8045-27
73ArDarius StewartWR8AlabamarJr                   72204       2.8323.28-0.72-76.529219
74Bucky HodgesTE4Virginia TechrJr                   78245       3.1422.56-0.72-77.24751
75D'Onta ForemanRB6TexasJr                   73249       3.4121.28-1.28-78.5254-21
76Cooper KuppWR9Eastern WashingtonrSr                   73198       2.7121.11-0.17-78.6964-12
77Jaleel JohnsonDT6IowarSr                   75309       4.1221.05-0.06-78.7556-21
78Josh JonesFS4NC StaterJr                   74215       2.9120.89-0.16-78.91n/a                -  
79Ahkello WitherspoonCB15ColoradorSr                   74195       2.6420.61-0.28-79.19n/a                -  
80Antonio GarciaOT5TroyrSr                   78293       3.7620.56-0.06-79.2466-14
81Marcus MayeFS5FloridarSr                   71216       3.0419.44-1.11-80.369817
82Jake ButtTE5MichiganSr                   77250       3.2518.21-1.23-81.5972-10
83Taywan TaylorWR10Western KentuckySr                   71198       2.7917.89-0.32-81.91n/a                -  
84Duke RileyOLB8LSUSr                   73231       3.1617.39-0.50-82.41n/a                -  
85Carlos WatkinsDT7ClemsonrSr                   76312       4.1117.32-0.07-82.4852-33
86Dalvin TomlinsonDT8AlabamarSr                   75312       4.1616.94-0.37-82.86959
87Larry OgunjobiDT9CharlotterSr                   74304       4.1116.89-0.06-82.91n/a                -  
88DeMarcus WalkerDE10Florida StateSr                   74273       3.6916.47-0.42-83.3355-33
89Eddie JacksonSS4AlabamaSr                   72194       2.6916.33-0.14-83.47901
90Carlos HendersonWR11Louisiana TechrJr                   71191       2.6916.00-0.33-83.80n/a                -  
91Kareem HuntRB7ToledoSr                   70208       2.9715.56-0.44-84.24n/a                -  
92Justin EvansSS5Texas A&MSr                   72193       2.6815.33-0.22-84.4767-25
93Adam ShaheenTE6AshlandrJr                   77277       3.6014.28-1.06-85.52n/a                -  
94Samaje PerineRB8OklahomaJr                   70235       3.3614.06-0.22-85.7474-20
Injured
95
Isaiah FordWR12Virginia TechJr                   73190       2.6014.060.00-85.7463-32
96Joe MathisDE11WashingtonSr                   74255       3.4513.83-0.22-85.9789-7
97Tarell BashamDE12OhioSr                   76259       3.4113.830.00-85.97n/a                -  
98Brad KaayaQB5Miami (Fla.)Jr                   76210       2.7613.56-0.28-86.2473-25
99Dede WestbrookWR13OklahomaSr                   71175       2.4613.33-0.22-86.4765-34
100Roderick JohnsonOT6Florida StateJr                   78308       3.9512.94-0.39-86.8679-21

Key:


Position Ranking:  Player rank at position based on Total Points.


Total: Average points earned by Player.


Points Behind:


  • Player Above:  Represents the number of points the player is behind the prospect ranked directly before them.
  • Overall #1:  Represents the number of points the player is behind the Overall #1 prospect.


Survey 1 Rank:  Represents the player’s rank in the first Pre-Combine survey.


Change vs Rank:  Represents the number of places each player rose/fell from the original survey.

Comments:


  1. That Myles Garrett remains #1 is not surprising. What is impressive is that he nearly tripled the gap between himself and the #2 pick from the Pre-Combine survey - he was 2.50 points ahead of Jonathan Allen, whereas he is now 7.20 points ahead of Jamal Adams.  This is the largest gap between any two players in the Top 100. 
  2. CB Marcus Lattimore jumped 13 spots to #7, landing into the Top 10.
  3. Of the Pre-Combine Top 10, DE Derek Barnett fell the farthest, from #10 down to #15.
  4. CB Kevin King had the greatest increase rising 48 spots to #46 (from #94). 
  5. WR Dede Westbrook had the biggest decline falling 34 spots from 65th to 99th in the final survey. 
  6. The highest debut was DE Derek Rivers who popped in at #58.
  7. Based on the survey, the scouts perceived the strength of position groups in the following order:
Position # Avg Score +/-
ILB 3 62.82 34.55%
QB 5 55.36 18.58%
DE 11 51.63 10.58%
RB 8 50.59 8.35%
CB 15 48.44 3.76%
OLB 8 48.11 3.05%
OG 4 46.22 -1.01%
OT 6 45.42 -2.71%
SS 5 45.41 -2.75%
FS 5 44.92 -3.79%
TE 6 44.44 -4.82%
DT 9 39.51 -15.37%
WR 13 37.06 -20.63%
2 33.71 -27.80%
Total 100 46.69

  • The Inside Linebacker Position received 35% higher than average score.  
    • Given there are only 3 ILB in the Top 100, DraftTwitter would likely grab this position early. 
  • Centers were graded 28% below the average score. 
  • Despite the media contention that this is an especially soft year for Quarterbacks, DraftTwitter believes this year's signal callers are, on average, the second best group.
  • Despite reports of this year's Cornerbacks being a deep class, DraftTwitter values then only about 4% better than average.

Conclusion

The goal of this experiment was to try to normalize the various approaches to scouting by aggregating Top 100 lists.  While the results are debatable (which is also a point of the project), I had a great time working with so many knowledgeable and personable people with whom I hope this project is the beginning of long, fruitful relationships. 

Who's Responsible

More info on will be included in a subsequent article, but for now, here is the list of contributing scouts:


Thanks to all of the above and I look forward to continuing this project into the future! 

Coming Soon!

This space will feature several articles leading up to this Thursday's Draft based on the survey to include a breakout of the individual ballots of the contributing scouts.  

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