Boombear's College Football Analysis: Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees

Coaching Carousel About to Take Off

With three NFL head coaches out the door so far this season at Houston, Atlanta and Detroit, there will be a lot of buzz regarding potential replacement candidates from the pro and college ranks. One thing that is certain, there are many candidates being discussed who will be under the microscope this off season to replace HC posts for the three teams mentioned above as well as any others who will be in the market for the 2021 season.

Like any profession, success in the NFL is largely predicated on preparation. While you would expect every coach to understand the fundamentals of his/her role on the coaching staff, the difference in success appears to be "grooming". When you take a look at the last 20 years of Super Bowl coaches, nearly all have been underlings or associates of groundbreaking or legendary coaches (it's hard to see who was the biggest influence in Super Bowl 43 coach Ken Whisenhunt's football philosophy and it seems Super Bowl 36 coach Mike Martz may have been a self taught genius).

Overall, this next crop of coaches being discussed have impressive lineages. Browsing online lists of potential coaches mentioned for this next NFL cycle, here are some of the most frequently listed names and their coaching affiliations:

Eric Bieniemy - Kansas City Offensive Coordinator

Highest Positions Attained

College: RB Coach at UCLA - 3 years
Pro: Assistant Head Coach at Minnesota - 1 year

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 2 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 13 years

Impactful Coaches - Andy Reid, Brad Childress
Lineage - Bill Walsh -Mike Holmgren - Andy Reid

Thoughts: Bieniemy entered the Bill Walsh family when Andy Reid reached out to groom his former player. I like the lineage and the weight an experienced veteran player in the league can have with current players who immediately know Bieniemy can relate to their situation. For all the good, he had three really, really stupid incidents when he was younger (all before he was 25) one of which led to his arrest and one year banishment from his alma mater. Just plain stupid. He's over 50 now so while some may want to bring it up as a strike against hiring him, those incidents are long in the past.

Lincoln Riley - University of Oklahoma Head Coach

Highest Positions Attained

College: Head Coach at Oklahoma - 4 year
Pro: N/A

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 11 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years

Impactful Coaches - Mike Leach
Lineage - Hal Mumme - Mike Leach

Thoughts: Air Raid through and through, Riley played for Mike Leach before working under him prior to moving over to East Carolina to work with Mike Leach disciple Ruffin McNeill. It would be interesting to see if he can join former TTU teammate Kliff Kingsbury as another college Air Raid coach gone to the NFL. His success cannot be denied (43-8 record with 3 invitations to the National Championship Tournament), it would be great to see him run an entire college program that was not blue chip to see how much he can do with less than elite talent year in and year out. He's young enough to be able to revert back to college if he finds the pro game is not his cup of tea.

Arthur Smith - Tennessee Titans Offensive Coordinator

Highest Positions Attained

College: Defensive Intern at Ole Miss - 1 year
Pro: Offensive Coordinator at Tennessee - 3 years

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 5 years

Impactful Coaches - Mike Mularkey
Lineage - Marty Schottenheimer - Bill Cowher - Mike Mularkey

Thoughts: TEN went from 27th in Points Scored per Game in 2018 to 10th in 2019 to 3rd so far in 2020. Smith was an offensive lineman at UNC. His path into the league was paved when he got a Defensive Quality Control assistant job with Washington Football Team, which his dad, Fred, founder of FedEx owned 10% at the time. Not sure if FedEx being headquartered in Tennessee had anything to do with his next gig with the Titans but HC Mike Munchak brought him on in 2011 to serve the same role he did for WAS. Smith was retained over three coaching changes from Munchack to Ken Whisenhunt to Mike Mularkey to current HC Mike Vrabel in 2018, promoted to OC in 2019. The team has clearly performed but I would love to see him succeed with a different organization (one not owned by his father or in a state where his father has great sway) just to confirm what we see.

Matt Campbell - Iowa State University Head Coach

Highest Positions Attained

College: Head Coach Toledo and Iowa State - 10 years combined
Pro: N/A

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 16 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years

Impactful Coaches - Larry Kehres
Lineage - Woody Hayes - Doyt Perry - Larry Kehres

Thoughts: The biggest concern about a college coach with no NFL experience is the game in college is largely won and lost when it comes to the talent advantage gained from the recruitment process. Matt Campbell's entire career has been at locations that have won without a material talent advantage at Division III Mount Union (as a player and coach), small conference Toledo and baby Big 12 member Iowa State. His mentor coach Larry Kehres has a winning percentage of .929 (332-24-3) which will likely never be topped showing dominance at the DIII level where the talent gap is imperceptible. Campbell models his programs' operating procedures and practices after Kehres' model which was influenced by College Football Hall of Fame coaches Woody Hayes and Doyt Perry. He is so steeped in the college culture I would be surprised if he made the jump now but you never know.

Brian Daboll - Offensive Coordinator Buffalo

Highest Positions Attained

College: Offensive Coordinator at Alabama - 1 year
Pro: Offensive Coordinator at Buffalo - 3 years

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 year
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 19 years

Impactful Coaches - Nick Saban, Bill Belichick
Lineage - Bill Parcells - Bill Belichick

Thoughts: I am inclined to support him simply because he is a fellow University of Rochester Yellowjacket so I know he's had his share of Garbage Plates at Nick Tahoe's, and, perhaps more important, he's from Welland, ON, which was home of some of Canadian finest live entertainment back in the early '90s. Our ties notwithstanding, Daboll has the second longest NFL tenor of any candidate reviewed here (after Roman, below) and cut his coaching teeth on organizational principles of Nick Saban (as a Michigan State Graduate Assistant in 1998 and 1999) before spending 7 years with Belichick in his first pro coaching gig. After almost two decades of learning, it may be time for Daboll to finally run the show. Meliora!

Greg Roman Offensive Coordinator Baltimore

Highest Positions Attained

College: N/A
Pro: Assistant Head Coach at Baltimore - 1 year

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 23 years

Impactful Coaches - Dom Capers, Jim Harbaugh
Lineage - (1) Woody Hayes - Bo Schembechler- Jim Harbaugh; (2) Doyt Perry - Jack Harbaugh - Jim Harbaugh

Thoughts: Roman came up the hard way in the NFL, through an unpaid position with Carolina the year they began as an expansion team. After a couple of gigs with the Texans and Ravens, he took a job at his former high school for a year before Jim Harbaugh lured him to be part of his staff at Stanford where he won the Broyles Award. We credit him with dual lineages through Jim Harbaugh who was influenced by his college coach Bo Schembechler as well as his father, Jack, who was an assistant of Hall of Famer Doyt Perry. Having been a position level coach or better for 23 years, what does it say about Roman that he hasn't had his own team yet (especially given him pedigree)? Not sure, but he may have his chance soon.

Joe Brady - Offensive Coordinator Carolina

Highest Positions Attained

College: Passing Game Coordinator at LSU - 1 year
Pro: Offensive Coordinator Carolina - 1 year

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 year

Impactful Coaches - Sean Payton
Lineage -Unclear if any.

Thoughts: I have not looked at Brady in great detail but I did witness the change in Joe Burrow from Year 1 at LSU to Year 2 where he took them to the National Championship. Granted, looking at Burrow's high school achievements he had 4,500 passing yards and 63 touchdowns...in just his SENIOR YEAR, I was expecting him to blow up once he arrived at Baton Rouge. Given the short body of work Brady has it would not be considered unreasonable if he has a hard time finding an owner willing to hand over the reins. If he doesn't get a shot this year at a top job, he's young and in a great position to be in consideration in the future.

Raheem Morris - Interim Head Coach Atlanta

Highest Positions Attained

College: Defensive Coordinator at Kansas State - 1 year
Pro: Head Coach at Tampa Bay- 3 years (Current Interim HC at Atlanta)

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 1 year
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 14 years

Impactful Coaches - John Gruden
Lineage - Bill Walsh - Mike Holmgren - John Gruden

Thoughts: The only one on this list who has already been a head coach in the NFL...twice. Not much more to be said. Per interviews, his operational practices and policies were greatly influenced by Gruden. Perhaps Arthur Blank feels like it's cheaper to keep Morris in place as HC going forward especially since Atlanta seems to have responded to the coaching change playing more competitive football going 4-3 (with 2 losses to playoff contender New Orleans).

Dabo Sweeney - Clemson University Head Coach

Highest Positions Attained

College: Head Coach at Clemson - 12 years
Pro: N/A

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 13 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years

Impactful Coaches - Gene Stallings
Lineage - Bear Bryant - Gene Stallings

Thoughts: The guy is Bama through and through. Played at Bama. Coached by "Junction Boy" Gene Stallings, a direct disciple of legendary Bama coach Bear Bryant. He even got his first job at Clemson through his former position coach at Alabama. The man has won since he got in the big seat with a record of 139-32 at Clemson. One concern is, as a coach from a top college program you see them take advantage of the recruiting strength they have which, of course, will not translate into the NFL where there is deliberate parity. The college life is so sweet and he already makes more than all NFL coaches except Belichick, Carroll, Gruden and Payton so not sure if he has any real reason to move.

Mike LaFleur - San Francisco Passing Game Coordinator

Highest Positions Attained

College: Offensive Coordinator at St. Joseph's - 2 years
Pro: Passing Game Coordinator at San Francisco - 2 years

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 3 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 4 years

Impactful Coaches - Kyle Shanahan
Lineage - Tom Landry - Dan Reeves - Mike Shanahan -Gary Kubiak - Kyle Shanahan

Thoughts: His last college Offensive Coordinator experience was 2013 at FCS Davidson where the team was 0-11 and was outscored 445-154. After that performance he got his first pro gig as an intern with the Browns under Kyle Shanahan. He would go on to stick with Shanahan as he moved to the Falcons and eventually became the Passing Game Coordinator for the 49'ers. How does a guy go from being dead last in FCS to the PGC in the Super Bowl? It might be impacted by the personal relationship Shanahan has with Mike's brother Matt LaFleur. Regardless of how he got into the league, he will continue to make the most of his opportunities.

Pat Fitzgerald - Northwestern University Head Coach

Highest Positions Attained

College: Head Coach at Northwestern - 15 years
Pro: N/A

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 15 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 0 years

Impactful Coaches - Ron Vanderlinden
Lineage - Woody Hayes - Bo Schembechler - Ron Vanderlinden

Thoughts: Clearly great lineage. Obviously took a team with a huge talent disadvantage and won in a major conference with a record of 104-80 however, excluding the COVID season, he is 12-32 against ranked opponents and is 1-14 against Ohio State and Michigan over his tenure (only win coming vs. Michigan in 2008). He's stated previously he has his dream job in being HC at his alma mater not far from where he grew up so it seems he's in a good place for now.

Todd Monken - University of Georgia Offensive Coordinator

Highest Positions Attained

College: Head Coach Southern Mississippi - 3 years
Pro: Offensive Coordinator 4 years (total between Tampa Bay and Cleveland)

Experience

College Coordinator or Head Coach - 13 years
Pro Position, Coordinator or Head Coach - 4 years

Impactful Coaches - Tom Beck; Les Miles
Lineage - Woody Hayes - Bo Schembechler - Les Miles

Thoughts: He's quite a rolling stone, having worked for 5 different organizations over the last 10 years across college and the pros. At Georgia, they are #47 in Passing TDs (compared to 40 last year) and #72 in rushing TDs (compared to #73 last year) in FBS this season. From 2016-2018 at Tampa Bay, his offenses were 19th, 19th and 12th respectively in terms of points per game. From there he took the 2019 Browns to 20.9 in points per game (22nd in the league) from 22.4 the prior year (20th). He would have a lot of former colleagues to recruit in building a staff but given he's bounced around, would anyone risk going with him?

The options above are just a few of the names being bandied around for NFL head coaching jobs. While there are many factors that go into getting an offer, coaches who can tie their methods back to legendary football leaders should exploit those relationships.

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Boombear's College Football Analysis

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees