Boombear's College Football Analysis: February 2021

Saturday, February 27, 2021

QB Prospect Response to Pressure Analysis - 2020

Pressure Makes Diamonds

We love to look at the highlight reels of QBs making pretty plays but the reality is football is all about making a QB uncomfortable to force him into errors. Let's take a look at how the top QB prospects for this coming NFL Player Draft responded to pressure in the 2020-21 season.

The Data

I started with PFF.com's statistics for QB performance with pressure. The data was compiled for the following 2021 NFL Draft eligible FBS prospects:

Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Mac Jones, Alabama
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Kyle Trask, Florida
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Brady White, Memphis
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Zach Wilson, Brigham Young
Ian Book, Notre Dame
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
K.J. Costello, Mississippi State
Zac Thomas, Appalachian State
Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist
Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee
Davis Mils, Stanford

Their data for certain metrics were analyzed:

Dropback % - Percentage of Dropbacks under pressure
Hit % - Dropbacks where QB was hit
Sack % - Percentage of dropbacks resulting in a sack
Comp % - Percentage of Completions to Attempts under pressure
Accuracy % - Percentage of Accurate Passes under pressure per PFF.com
TD/INT - Touchdowns under pressure divided by Interceptions under pressure

Grading is based on Z-Score which represents the number of standard deviations from the mean for each metric; in our analysis, a higher score is better (less pressure, higher accuracy, etc).

The color coding is as follows:

Observations:

The table above is sorted by Z score for Dropback %, the higher the score the less pressure the prospect faced. As you can see, White and Jones faced the least pressure, while Ehlinger, Book, Guarantano and Costello were under fire the most.
When we compare Hit% to Dropback% Book, despite having to deal with pressure more than most, is near the tops in Hit%, meaning he is avoiding contact at a ridiculous rate.

Near consensus #1 overall pick, Lawrence has dealt with less pressure than average but he dropped two grade levels showing the worst Hit% of the group.It will be interesting to review his footage to see what caused him to take so many hits when he faced less pressure than average.
Everyone else is pretty much in line with where you would expect (White is tops in least pressure and has the fewest hits, Costello has the most pressure and is number 2 in hits).

Using the same lens for Sack %, White faced the least pressure but fell two grade levels in terms of Sack% under pressure.

Mond saw more pressure than average but did an outstanding job in avoiding sacks.

Regarding Completion %, White dropped below average here again compared to his Dropback %.

Ridder went from bad (falling two grades compared to his Dropback %), to worse dropping to the basement in Comp % under pressure.
Despite facing the most pressure, Costello had the second highest Completion %.

Varying most from their Dropback % when it comes to Accuracy% were White and Ridder, who both declined, and Book, who had the greatest accuracy under pressure of the sample.
The best performance under pressure in terms of TD/INT ratio goes to Jones who was two standard deviations above the mean on this metric.

Ehlinger and Book continue to show they have grace under pressure by having top TD/INT scores.

Let's look at the table resorted based on the averages of the five pressure response metrics used above:

Jones faced the least pressure and in those situations, he performed well. In fact, he had one of the tops scores in each metric giving him the only average score greater than 1 standard deviation above the mean.
Book and Costello faced tremendous pressure but their averages were two grade levels above their respective Dropback % so it will be interesting to see if this will have any impact on their draft statuses.
White started strong out of the gate, but overall his response to pressure will need attention at the next level.

The Big Five

When talking about QB prospects, the five FBS QBs I hear about most are Trask, Jones, Lawrence, Wilson and Fields. The table below has their pressure response metrics side by side:

Jones, Wilson and Trask all faced less than average pressure and had above average performance.
Fields had to deal with far more pressure than the others in this group and his results were below average.
From the above either (1) the more pressure one has to experience, the more likely they are to make mistakes over time or (2) the aggregate impact of pressure does not have any impact and players are performing to their capabilities.

Who Could Have Foreseen This?

The big surprise is presumed #1 overall QB Trevor Lawrence's results which were markedly average across the board.

His three out of five metrics were below average with his Hit% two grades below his baseline Dropback % resulting in his overall Impact Avg (average of the five pressure response metrics) being below average.

Teams will want to look at his response to pressure historically to ensure this strange season may have been an anomaly in this respect.

Final Thought

Regarding correlations (not causation, right?) there is no correlation between Pressure Dropback% and any of the Pressure Response metrics.

There seems to be a real correlation between Accuracy under pressure and Completion % under pressure, but that's not really very surprising.

In the end, the numbers stand on their own - some guys have mastered dealing with pressure while others struggle. It remains to be seen if the complexity or simplicity of each players' system has any impact on these results; the questions about Fields' "slow" processing have been answered with the response that the complexity of the system he is asked to run is a factor. The best analogy I've heard is Fields is learning to drive stick (a more complex pro style offense) and others are driving automatics. The average viewer sees Fields stall and assumes he is a bad driver with no regards for the fundamental differences between stick and automatic. This and other potential factors should be thoroughly considered in pre-draft evaluations.

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Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Jets Reset Part II - The Elephant in the Room

Putting on My Jets Hat

Since my original Jets Reset blog was posted on 10/16/20, a lot has changed:

The Jets lost their next game 30-10 to the Cardinals, dropping their record to 0-5, eventually going on to end the season 2-14.
Starting QB Sam Darnold was injured going into Week 5, however when healthy he sported an QB Rating of 70.8 over the first four games of the season. That put him last out of the four 1^st round QBs from his draft class (those with starting roles over that same 4 week period).

Allen (124.0)
Jackson (111.7)
Mayfield (98.2).
Each of the aforementioned QBs took their respective teams to the playoffs this past season.

With Mayfield leading the Browns to the playoffs, the Jets now have the undesirable title of “Team with Longest Post Season Appearance Drought” (10 seasons).
Primary RB Frank Gore replaced Le’Veon Bell (released by the team after Week 2 ) but was not able to reach 65 yards from scrimmage in weeks 3-5. He was not able to crack 100 yards in any game the entire season.
Adam Gase alumnus Kalen Ballage was brought in to help offset the loss of Bell "production" but could only muster a total of 80 yards from scrimmage over his 3 game career as a Jet and was ultimately released.
Finally, the Jets stunned the football (and gambling) world by upsetting the LA Rams to become the biggest NFL Underdog to win a game in the history of the human life on Earth, while also ruining their chances of securing the top pick in the upcoming draft which would have guaranteed potential All-Galaxy quarterback Trevor Lawrence wearing the Green and White. Sad.

Out with the Old

In the original Jets Reset post, I voiced my skepticism about the depth of the relationship between former coach Adam Gase and current GM Joe Douglas, which some media outlets lead us to believe was strong based on their one year overlap as employees of the Bears. There were thoughts that Joe D would be able to save Gase.

Gase was fired at the end of the season.

I also predicted Joe D would complete a WWE-seque heel turn and consolidate power under the GM making the head coach report directly to him, which is contrary to the management style the Brothers Johnson have employed for some time where both HC and GM report separately to ownership.

Given the public comments from The Johnsons and the fact that the HC hiring process, which landed former SF Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh, was clearly run by Joe D, I’d say we have consolidation of power.

The Elephant in the Room

What Does Coach S really think about Sam Darnold?

Head Coach Robert Saleh’s praise of Darnold during his introductory press conference in January 2021, calling Sam tough as nails, lauding his reputation in the locker room as unquestioned, cited great arm talent, pocket fearlessness, intelligence and mobility, has been seen as a sign that Sam is staying for another year. When directly asked about Sam’s future with the team, however, Coach got into his backpedal stating it’s too early to know and that is was unfair to answer that question at this time.

A couple of things:

Saleh earned a PhD in Darnold last year - The Jets played SF in Week 2 when Sam was active. As defensive coordinator for the Niners, it’s unquestioned that Saleh and his staff spent a significant amount of time looking at the quarterback, Sam Darnold. Coach S is in an elite class as one of 13 Defensive Coordinators who faced the Jets last season. How could it be that his research would not have come up in the interview processes? The point here is Robert is one of the few people who could lead a symposium on all things Sam Darnold, so it is hard to believe he doesn’t already know how he would vote in the Keep Him or Trade Him debate.
So why not come clean? - If we assume Saleh would want to keep Sam as QB for 2021, what would he gain by being vague during his press conference?

If the Jets want to keep Sam: Perhaps Management wants to give the message they still have a long way to go before they figure this thing out which would drive up the price of the #2 overall pick which could be traded if they are keeping Darnold. the right for QB2 goes to the highest bidder and there would certainly be a bidding war.
If the Jets are looking to move on from Sam: The idea that Sam is all the things we thought he might be is not an unpopular opinion and there are certainly GMs who believe so. Saleh pumping SD up in the media helps keep Sam’s interest and potential trade value elevated. Remember, while there are 13 teams that examined Sam’s game with a microscope for game plans last year, there are 18 that did not. Regardless of Sam’s statistics, he is an extremely young, high draft slot QB in a league that has seen Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen become highly regarded, winning QBs almost overnight. There will be a hot market for him.

However you want to spin it, it makes no sense for Saleh to tip the hand. All we can know is if Sam stays that would be huge for the Jets because it would be a glowing endorsement by the man who was paid to develop a plan to stop Darnold in Week 2.

Are We Going to Get DeShaun?

Considering the prior commentary from Coach S about the QB position, no one really knows which way the team will go. But he's the way I see it going:

Deshaun Watson is a quality QB in every respect, but I can’t see how he can function in HOU. Doing research into his situation, it was clear that he values the player/administration relationship very much. At Clemson when his mother was battling cancer, he credited the University with providing emotional support to help his family get through that tough time. Dabo Sweeney spoke for an interview about how the University rallied around the family at that crucial time. With that kind of history, it’s not surprising Watson was taken aback when the HOU ownership asked for his input into the new front office hires and then summarily ignored his recommendations. It would have been better for HOU to have not even asked at all. HOU seems to have played themselves here. Sure, they could simply stand on the freshly inked contract and I'm sure Watson will play when called on to do so but he not sure how you can expect to get quality out of miserable people. Better just cut your losses and trade him.

In terms of an exit from Watson, it seems only MIA and NYJ have the draft capital to pay the king’s ransom required to pry Watson away.

Prediction - Watson is a Fin- I can’t say what MIA will do but I can’t see the Jets moving the chips in for Watson. MIA is farther down the pike in their rebuild than the Jets and so no one player is going to make that much of a difference for New York. MIA is very close so they don't really need the draft picks. On the flip side, Joe Douglas seems to be a prudent man. He had alligator arms last free agency and has repeated stated he plans to build this team through the draft. Lastly, the illusion that the Jets don’t want Watson will help the Darnold trade value. So, in the end, no Deshaun in NY but they see him twice a year in MIA.

The Jets just have too many holes to plug.

So What Do We Do?

Regarding the QB spot, if they move on from Sam, the #2 pick will obviously have to be a QB and the two top contenders are well known, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. I will do an overview on these two at a later date but for now, it’s safe to say one of these two will be the favorite to start Week 1 in 2021. Each has his pluses and minuses; no doubt Joe D and company will do a deep dive to come up with their favorite option. But that’s boring…

Let’s Go Crazy

But what if the QB choice is not so simple as Fields or Wilson? Both have bright futures but if presumed #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is no guaranty for success, neither is anyone else. Suppose the Jets decide that, if they hit on all other draft picks, they don't need a generational QB to win? What if they trading back out of the #2 spot with the expectation of picking up QB4 or QB5 a bit later in Round 1? With an elite defense, can you win with a competent low floor QB like Mac Jones who can manage games for you? Maybe you extend Flacco for another year and you shoot for the ultra-high ceiling prospect Trey Lance? That would mean the Jets would trade out of the #2 spot, picking up additional draft picks in 2021 and in future years. This would give Management the chance to do right by Sam Darnold for the first time since he was drafted and get him traded to a place where he can start over. But I read the comments all the time, "who would want Sam if he couldn't win HERE?!?

Feeding Frenzy!!

This is a QB driven league. Sam now had more experience at pro QB than 100% of the kids coming out in the draft. While that may not mean much in itself, remember teams are owned and coached by egomaniacs who believe they are always the smartest guy in the room. So can you imagine the chaos that would ensure when the first five QBs are gone and teams are looking at the next tier of prospect signal callers?

Sam Darnold is all that separates 9 teams from drafting Kyle Trask.

It is probable 5 QBs will be drafted in the first round. With the following teams having QB as a top need, #1 Jacksonville, #2 NYJ, #6 PHI, #8 CAR and #9 DEN, the draft could get crazy if #3 MIA and # 4 ATL decide they will pick up a first round passer, shutting out not only CAR and DEN, but also teams like #12 SF, #15 NE, #19 WFT and #20 CHI just in the top 20 picks. There are potentially no fewer than 14 teams chasing after 5 quarterbacks. When Mac Jones comes off the board as high as #6 to the Eagles, the value for Sam Darnold will skyrocket because not many rational football fans could name a Tier 2 QB prospect they would take over Sam.

The Sam price tag would be huge with so many teams looking for QBs. Teams would have to hand over their 2021 first rounder and other future high picks.

At his presser, Coach Saleh kept his mouth shut about Darnold's role with the team. Trading Sam today makes no sense. Waiting until the market is bone dry during the draft is the move that should pay off and could provide the Jets with 3 first round picks in 2021.

Let's see what happens.

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Saturday, February 6, 2021

Has His NY Jets Supporting Cast Dragged Down Sam Darnold?

Looking at Expected Performance

Looking back at the 2020-21 NY Jets season is not pleasant but it is necessary if the team is to move forward and progress. A huge part of the evaluation will be what to do at the Quarterback position and that largely rests on the question of Sam Darnold's future with the team.

After three years, his performance has not seemed to reflect his #3 overall draft position, but to be fair, his coaching and team mate carousel has not stopped spinning since he got here. So how do we evaluate if it makes sense to bring him back or if the team should look at other options?

In the 2020 season Sam missed several games due to injury and his backup was Super Bowl winning QB, Joe Flacco. Flacco is not the player he once was but the above the neck skills don't erode. Let's take a look at performance for both, not in terms of wins and losses but in terms of actual results compared to expected performance:

Comparing Rates

To compare the teammates head to head, we look at the rates of certain statistics compared to the baseline share of attempts. For example, Darnold had 364 attempts of the total 498 between the two, so he had a 73.1% share. He had 71.9% of the passing yards which represents 1.7% fewer yards than his expected return [(Yards Rate-Attempts Rate)/Attempts Rate]. If we compare all statistical ratios to the Attempts ratios for both, and take the difference between their scores, here is what stands out.

TD's - Difference between their share rates is 66.6% in favor of Flacco. It's no secret to anyone who watched the games.
Scramble and Pressure- The Scramble difference was 54.8%. Flacco is nearing the end of his career so no shock since he was not a huge run threat anyway but Darnold leaves the pocket almost 15% more than expected. This is most interesting when you see they faced about the same amount of pressure.
Sacks and Throwaways - Sack difference is 52.1% with Sam getting sacked 14% more than expected. The Throwaway difference mirrors the sacks with a differential of 27.2% in favor of Flacco. The veteran experience really shows through here.

From comparing rates, it seems pretty clear that Flacco had more success in the Jets offense than Darnold despite the teams overall disappointing performance this year.

Making Players Better

Another measure of a QB is how he "elevates" the team around him. In this context, let's look at how WRs performed across a couple of different rate metrics.

Receptions to Targets
Yards to Receptions
Touchdowns to Receptions

Compared to the production averages, Jet receivers generally have better than expected completion percentages under Darnold (except for Perriman who had 15.8% better than expected completion rate under Flacco). None of the teams top receivers had better than single digit vs. expected rate.

Conversely, everyone except Crowder generated better than expected yards per reception under Flacco with rates greater than 17.2%. With Crowder's Yards/Rec rate just 1.5% above expected when Sam dealt him the ball, his big cap number has to be a factor in putting together the 2022 team.

For Touchdowns, players not named Berrios performed better under Flacco (Mims had no TDs).

We can create a summary table from the above:

Here are the differentials (positive is favorable for Darnold, negative favorable for Flacco).

Inferences:

Flacco is materially better than Darnold in nearly all categories of the expected rate statistical analysis above. Where Darnold is better, it is marginally so in terms of Drops, Pressure and On Target passes.
Darnold is better at getting completions than Flacco but we have to consider the Complete Air Yards/Completion average for Darnold is 4.9 compared to 7.0 by Flacco could be a contributing factor.
Given the huge difference in performance between having Flacco under center than when Darnold was in the game, Herndon should be brought back in 2021.
Perriman really benefitted from working with Flacco so it will be interesting to see if he is brought back in some capacity.

My Thoughts

Not going to say that Flacco should be a part of the long term future plan for the Jets. He is a fine backup, as seen during telecasts when he was often seen on the sidelines going over plays with Darnold after offensive series. The question has always been about what the commitment to Sam should be, going forward. Often the discussion involves lack of supporting cast for Darnold as a reason for his lack of progress. The information above makes it hard to accept that rationale. Given Flacco had greater success in terms of generating yards and touchdowns over expectation, it's clear the offense left a bit on the table when Sam was in.

In a situation where there was not a looming financial commitment on the horizon, perhaps another year to evaluate might be appropriate especially given the constant revolving door of Offensive Coordinators and the head coach change Darnold had to deal with since he arrived from USC. But for a team that traded up to acquire Sam, it's clear he has not lived up to his potential and at some point, they have to make some profound effort to right the ship. How Sam fits into the equation remains to be see. And with the numbers above, his inconsistent performances this year can't be credited entirely as a function of his supporting cast.

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Boombear's College Football Analysis

Saturday, February 27, 2021

QB Prospect Response to Pressure Analysis - 2020

Pressure Makes Diamonds

The Data

Observations:

The Big Five

Who Could Have Foreseen This?

Final Thought

Other Posts To Read

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Jets Reset Part II - The Elephant in the Room

Putting on My Jets Hat

Out with the Old

The Elephant in the Room

Are We Going to Get DeShaun?

So What Do We Do?

Let’s Go Crazy

Feeding Frenzy!!

Other Posts To Read

Saturday, February 6, 2021

Has His NY Jets Supporting Cast Dragged Down Sam Darnold?

Looking at Expected Performance

Comparing Rates

Making Players Better

Inferences:

My Thoughts

Other Posts To Read