NFL Draft QB Prospect - Unforced Errors

Own Worst Enemy

Recently, I looked at how some of the prospects in the upcoming NFL draft responded to pressure (see the post right here).  With defenders in their faces, we looked at who was able to overcome the pressure and put up numbers.  Performing well under pressure is a desirable characteristic but let's not forget how critical it is to limit one's own mistakes in a clean pocket.  But which players were most prone to making unforced errors?  Let's take a look.

The Data

Data for this analysis is pulled from PFF.com.  For this exercise, Unforced Errors are:

• Interceptions
• Sacks
• Batted Passes
• Turnover Worthy Plays which are a PFF metric defined as "a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling".

It is acknowledged that all of the above can be debated as potentially being "forced errors". However,  given the QB is ultimately responsible for making the decision of where to go with ball we consider the above errors "unforced". 

The Unforced Error numbers for Total Plays and Pressure Plays were compiled to calculate the Unforced Errors percentage ([Total Plays Unforced Errors minus Pressure Plays Unforced Errors] divided by Total Plays Unforced Errors).  The Z-score (representing the number of standard deviations from the mean) is also calculated. 

Here are the results:

Comments

• Table is sorted by 2020 performance and includes 2019 numbers.
• Trey Lance is offset from the rest of the table because he had just one start in 2020 which reflect horrible numbers; his 2019 numbers looked good.
• Sam Ehlinger had the lowest Unforced Error % and showed improvement of 9.7% over 2019.
• Mac Jones, who had the best numbers under pressure from my prior analysis, is pretty abysmal when it comes to avoiding unforced errors with 2/3 of his tracked errors coming with no pressure. 
• Justin Fields increased the most on a percentage basis (by 13.0% year over year) however, he still remained above average in terms of Z score. 
• Ian Book improved the most reducing his forced errors by 23.3%.
• Presumptive QB1 Trevor Lawrence and QB2 Zach Wilson are at the wrong end of the the unforced errors table with both below average based on the criteria.   
• Lawrence also had below average performance numbers for my QB pressure article, so perhaps these areas could be a point of emphasis for his coaching staff during his rookie season in Jacksonville. 
• Kyle Trask, who could be QB6 coming off the board, was very consistent with performance well above average both here and in the pressure performance article. 

Final Thoughts

Of course, the table above is not a ranking nor is it a prognostication for the order the QBs who will be picked this April. It is not as an attempt to "win' an argument with some random numbers, but this exercise as a whole should be used a tool to help when watching game footage to see what is causing these unforced errors to accumulate or if the errors are even of a magnitude to be included in any scouting evaluation.  You can be the judge of that.  

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Don't Stop Now, You Quitter!  Other Posts To Read

Comparing Free Agency Spending with Performance over 10 Years - Looking for Free Agency trends that to see how they impact winning.  

https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2021/03/comparing-nfl-free-agency-dollars-spent.html

QB Prospect Response to Pressure Analysis - 2020 - Taking a look at the NFL Draft Prospects for  2021 when the heat is on .  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2021/02/qb-prospect-response-to-pressure.html

Jets Reset Part II - The Elephant in the Room - Part II of my look at my NY Jets and this time we have to attack head on the issue of the quarterback.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2021/02/jets-reset-part-ii-elephant-in-room.html

QB Prospect Response to Pressure Analysis - 2020

 Pressure Makes Diamonds

We love to look at the highlight reels of QBs making pretty plays but the reality is football is all about making a QB uncomfortable to force him into errors.  Let's take a look at how the top QB prospects for this coming NFL Player Draft responded to pressure in the 2020-21 season.

The Data

I started with PFF.com's statistics for QB performance with pressure.  The data was compiled for the following 2021 NFL Draft eligible FBS prospects:

1. Sam  Ehlinger, Texas
2. Mac Jones, Alabama
3. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
4. Kyle Trask, Florida
5. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
6. Brady White, Memphis
7. Justin Fields, Ohio State
8. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young 
9. Ian Book, Notre Dame
10. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
11. K.J. Costello, Mississippi State
12. Zac Thomas, Appalachian State
13. Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist
14. Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee
15. Davis Mils, Stanford

Their data for certain metrics were analyzed:

• Dropback % - Percentage of Dropbacks under pressure
• Hit % -  Dropbacks where QB was hit
• Sack % - Percentage of dropbacks resulting in a sack
• Comp % - Percentage of Completions to Attempts under pressure
• Accuracy % - Percentage of Accurate Passes under pressure per PFF.com
• TD/INT - Touchdowns under pressure divided by Interceptions under pressure

Grading is based on Z-Score which represents the number of standard deviations from the mean for each metric; in our analysis, a higher score is better (less pressure, higher accuracy, etc). 

The color coding is as follows:

Observations:

• The table above is sorted by Z score for Dropback %, the higher the score the less pressure the prospect faced.  As you can see, White and Jones faced the least pressure, while Ehlinger, Book, Guarantano and Costello were under fire the most.  
• When we compare Hit% to Dropback% Book, despite having to deal with pressure more than most, is near the tops in Hit%, meaning he is avoiding contact at a ridiculous rate.
• Near consensus #1 overall pick, Lawrence has dealt with less pressure than average but he dropped two grade levels showing the worst Hit% of the group.It will be interesting to review his footage to see what caused him to take so many hits when he faced less pressure than average. 
• Everyone else is pretty much in line with where you would expect (White is tops in least pressure and has the fewest hits, Costello has the most pressure and is number 2 in hits). 
• Using the same lens for Sack %, White faced the least pressure but fell two grade levels in terms of Sack% under pressure. 
• Mond saw more pressure than average but did an outstanding job in avoiding sacks.
• Regarding Completion %, White dropped below average here again compared to his Dropback %.  
• Ridder went from bad (falling two grades compared to his Dropback %), to worse dropping to the basement in Comp % under pressure.  
• Despite facing the most pressure, Costello had the second highest Completion %. 
• Varying most from their Dropback % when it comes to Accuracy% were White and Ridder, who both declined, and Book, who had the greatest accuracy under pressure of the sample.
• The best performance under pressure in terms of TD/INT ratio goes to Jones who was two standard deviations above the mean on this metric.
• Ehlinger and Book continue to show they have grace under pressure by having top TD/INT scores. 

Let's look at the table resorted based on the averages of the five pressure response metrics used above:

• Jones faced the least pressure and in those situations, he performed well.  In fact, he had one of the tops scores in each metric giving him the only average score greater than 1 standard deviation above the mean. 
• Book and Costello faced tremendous pressure but their averages were two grade levels above their respective Dropback % so it will be interesting to see if this will have any impact on their draft statuses. 
• White started strong out of the gate, but overall his response to pressure will need attention at the next level. 

The Big Five

When talking about QB prospects, the five FBS QBs I hear about most are Trask, Jones, Lawrence, Wilson and Fields.  The table below has their pressure response metrics side by side:

• Jones, Wilson and Trask all faced less than average pressure and had above average performance.   
• Fields had to deal with far more pressure than the others in this group and his results were below average.
• From the above either (1) the more pressure one has to experience, the more likely they are to make mistakes over time or (2) the aggregate impact of pressure does not have any impact and players are performing to their capabilities. 

Who Could Have Foreseen This?

• The big surprise is presumed #1 overall QB Trevor Lawrence's results which were markedly average across the board.
• His three out of five metrics were below average with his Hit% two grades below his baseline Dropback % resulting in his overall Impact Avg (average of the five pressure response metrics) being below average.  
• Teams will want to look at his response to pressure historically to ensure this strange season may have been an anomaly in this respect. 

Final Thought

Regarding correlations (not causation, right?) there is no correlation between Pressure Dropback% and any of the Pressure Response metrics.   

There seems to be a real correlation between Accuracy under pressure and Completion % under pressure, but that's not really very surprising. 

In the end, the numbers stand on their own - some guys have mastered dealing with pressure while others struggle.  It remains to be seen if the complexity or simplicity of each players' system has any impact on these results;  the questions about Fields' "slow" processing have been answered with the response that the complexity of the system he is asked to run is a factor.  The best analogy I've heard is Fields is learning to drive stick (a more complex pro style offense) and others are driving automatics.  The average viewer sees Fields stall and assumes he is a bad driver with no regards for the fundamental differences between stick and automatic.  This and other potential factors should be thoroughly considered in pre-draft evaluations.  

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Other Posts To Read

Jets Reset Part II - The Elephant in the Room - Part II of my look at my NY Jets and this time we have to attack head on the issue of the quarterback.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2021/02/jets-reset-part-ii-elephant-in-room.html

The Nut Doesn't Fall Far from the Coaching Tree - Looking at the lineages of some of the NFL head coaching prospects for 2021.  Boombear's College Football Analysis: Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

Tanking for Trevor - Everyone wants the highest drafted players but how often do those players lead their teams to Super Bowls?  We have you covered right here!  Boombear's College Football Analysis: Tanking for Trevor (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)