Big Receiver vs "Little" Receiver - 2020

 

Back in 2019, we took a look at the performance of wide receivers based on size...and while bigger receivers received more targets on average, smaller receivers perform better on a yards per target basis (check it out here).  But how small is too small?

Let's look at the case of Devonta Smith.  Big time talent in a little body. But what does the historical trend tell us?

The Data

Data from every member of the NFL Combine wide receiver group since 2000 was gathered from Pro Football Reference.com.  From this information, the following numbers were aggregated:

• Body Mass Index 
• For the group, BMI Z score was derived (Z score represents the number of standard deviations from the mean each subject lies).
• Receiving Yards
• Snaps
• Receiving Yards per Snap (Y/S)
• Y/S Z score
• PFR historical snap counts are limited, so Receiving Yards for years where snap count was not available are eliminated from this calculation.
• Yards per Snap and not Yards per Target to get a better picture of how the team valued a player.  If we look at YPT a player could be a gadget guy who was called in on certain situations. What we are looking for is to measure a players worth through his utilization. 

The Big Picture

• There were 1089 wide receivers invited to the Combine over the 20 year period.
• Of those, 597 (or about 55%) generated less than 100 receiving yard during their time in the NFL.  
• Of those 413 had BMIs in the "average" range (with Z scores between -1.00 and 1.00).
• 94 below average  
• 90 above average
• So it would appear size is not a factor in terms of guys not having an impact in the NFL.

When we look at the performance of 263 WRs who had at least 404 snaps over the 20 year measurement period and break it down by size, here's what we get:

• Average Yards per Snap of the 263 qualifying receivers is 0.9058 y/s.
• Quartile 1 contains the larger receivers with average BMI of 6.21% greater than the sample average (26.90).
• The average player has a Z score (number of standard deviations from the mean) of 1.24.
• Regarding Yards per Snap, they have the highest rate of 1.10 yards per snap (the average Z Score is 0.23).
• Above Average Y/S: 37 vs Below Average: 29
•  Some receivers in this group with Yard/Snaps > 1.10x include Dez Bryant, A.J. Brown and Terry McLauren.
• Quartile 2 receivers are on average 1.75% higher BMI and produce at a rate of 1.04 Y/S which is 5.5% off the Quartile 1 average.
• Above Average Y/S: 37 vs Below Average: 29
• Some receivers with Y/S > the 1.04 average include Julio Jones, Allen Robinson and Julian Edelman.
• Quartile 3 receivers are on average 1.71% lower BMI and produce at a rate of 0.97 Y/S which is 11.2% off the Quartile 1 average.
• Above Average Y/S: 32 vs Below Average: 34
• Receivers with Y/S > the 0.97 Y/S average include TY Hilton, Antonio Brown and Mecole Hardman .
• Quartile 4 receivers are on average 6.39% higher BMI and produce at a rate of 0.95 Y/S which is 12.9% off the Quartile 1 average.
• Above Average Y/S: 27 vs Below Average: 38
• Receivers with Y/S > the 0.95 average include Hunter Renfrow, Robby Anderson and Calvin Ridley.

Conclusion

While this is just a small amount of data to consider, it looks like there is a material difference in Yards per Snap for a Wide Receiver based on BMI.  As BMI dropped so did the Y/S based quartile averages.  As BMI decreased, the number of receivers in each quartile who had below average Y/S production increased.   

This alone is not enough to indicate Smith will have any performance issues given his weight. The lightest guy on the list, JJ Nelson, the only guy with lower Combine BMI than Smith in the 20 year survey, currently has above average Y/S production of 1.12 which is better than Curtis Samuel (1.11),  Will Fuller (1.09) and Tyler Lockett (1.08).  But despite having been in the league as long as Lockett (entered in 2015) he has at least 900 fewer snaps registered than any of the three comp players.  

Smith put on a show in College Football during 2020 and we would love to see that carry over to the pro game.  Let's hope he can be an outlier and have a solid NFL career despite being so light.