Preseason ROI Top 10
The players below appeared in a September 3rd post (found here) which designated them the Top 10 returning WRs in terms of Return on Investment
for 2015. That list has been updated comparing
the preliminary preseason ROI based on the 2015 regular season with the current
ROI as of the end of the 2016 regular season (which does not take into account
targets, TDs or exclude RB numbers from the calculation). While a nice way to investigate progress of
these players, the ROI results presented will materially change as additional
data (Bowl data, players draft declaration decisions, target data, etc) becomes
available and so the numbers and rankings will move around before the draft
begins April 27th. So, in
comparing last year to this year so far and to avoid any “apples to oranges”
comparisons, it is prudent to focus on the percentage above or below the average
ROI for each receiver.
ROI is a Screening not an Evaluation Tool
Also, ROI was developed as a screening tool to help football
fans see “through the numbers” so sift out potential under the radar players,
not as a “Best WR” list. It simply shows
you who is producing so that those players can get a closer look.
The "E" word
To differentiate players who have an increasing trend over
each successive statistical category (please see the original article here for
a detailed description of ROI) , I came up with the really bad label of
“Elite”; I am looking to dump that term given the connotations it may give off. A better term would be “Progressively
Efficient” or “Positive Efficient Trend” (PET?).
The Top 10
Here is the list of Draft Eligible top performers all of
which earned the preseason ROI "Elite" designated with their 2016
actual results.
1. Da'Mari Scott - Fresno State, Sr- 6'0" 211 lbs Total ROI: 59.2% more production than his
expected pro rata share which is 235% better than the average of qualifying
players.
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: N/A
No statistics generated 2016 season given health issues for Scott. He will evidently
return on a redshirt for a final year of eligibility.
2. Tanner Gentry - Wyoming, Sr - 6'2" 201 lbs. 38/56/702.
ROI 49.8% (182% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 20.1% (25%).
Gentry ends the
regular season with the 12th highest raw ROI for qualifying seniors.
A leader on the Cowboys team, he is
projected as WR72 by CBS Sports.
3. Cody Thompson - Toledo, Jr - 6'1" 202 lbs. 37/66/825. ROI 45.5% (157% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 37.1% (130%),
Good for 5th
for all qualifying draft eligible players in 2016. Thompson is returning for
his senior season (which is a good thing given so few are tracking his career
at this point) to try to top his solid 59/1170/10 stat line, which will give Toledo a nice foundation in 2017.
4. Tyrain Taylor - New Mexico State, Sr - 5'9" 162 lbs.
40/62/690. ROI 44.5% (152% above
average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 53.0% (223%)
Unfortunately, the really low reception total (22) was
far short of the minimum receptions required of 41 (at least 1 standard
deviation from the mean) for inclusion.
Very slight of build, it would be an achievement for Taylor, who was not
his teams primary punt and kick return man, to find a home as a receiver in the
NFL.
5. Jerome Lane -
Akron, Jr - 6'3" 220 lbs. 39/73/782.
ROI 44.1% (150% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 16.3% (1% below average)
Lane garnered recognition in amateur
scouting media, however his regular season stat line of 62/1018/6 placed him at
31st overall in terms of receiving yards. Although a junior, this
son of a former NFL linebacker feels he is ready to make the jump and has
declared for the draft. His declaration
may prove to be regrettable, given the number of other proven WE talents available
in the upcoming NFL draft 2017. Certainly another year in school could have
helped him build notoriety for the 2018 draft.
6. Darren
Carrington - Oregon, Jr. 6'2"
195lbs. 32/45/609. ROI 41.6% (135% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 13.8% (16% below average)
Carrington wisely chose to return to Eugene, OR for his redshirt senior year. He put up nearly identical numbers with 43
recs for 606 yards and, despite being the Ducks’ leading receiver, could not
generate enough offense to be efficient (given the raw data at this point)
despite having above average QB play (Ducks pass completion % was 64.4%
compared to FBS average of 59.1%).
7. Josh Reynolds -
Texas A&M, Sr. 6'4" 195 lbs.
51/85/907. ROI 39.4% (123% above
average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 35.1% (118%).
Reynolds, who
went the JUCO route after receiving no Division I offers out of high school,
was again the leading receiver on for the Aggies for what was arguably the most
talent WR corps in the country. Based
on a sampling of approximately 30 draft eligible players, Reynolds Final ROI of
54.2% places him as second most productive WR in the country. CBS
Sports has him as WR30 in the 2017 NFL draft.
8. Jamari Staples -
Louisville, Sr. 6'4" 195 lbs. 37/57/638.
ROI 37.2% (111% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 11.3% (30% below average)
His workload of 35 catches for less than
600 yards excluded him from our final survey
but Jamari Staples just could not surpass his teammates James Quick and
Jaylen Smith in terms of recs and/or yards.
It appears Jamari has no eligibility remaining as he started as a true
freshman for UAB’s now defunct football program.
9. Rodney Adams,
South Florida, Sr. 6'1" 190 lbs. 44/69/816. ROI 35.4% (101% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: -5.2% for inefficient performance.
Adams put up 755 yards on 60 receptions,
but saw a marked decline in efficiency.
Using raw numbers, it appears his teams heavy use of running backs (they
had about 24% of team receptions and 21% of team yards) took a big bite out of
his ROI numbers through the end of the season (final ROI excludes RB
statistics). It will be interesting to
see how his final ROI numbers pan out. CBSSports has him listed as WR45 in the
upcoming draft.
10. Caleb Scott, Vanderbilt, Jr. 6'2" 195 lbs. 24/40/339.
ROI 32.0% (81% above average).
Actual Regular Season 2016
ROI: 71.1% (330%)
Caleb would not have qualified as he had only 20
catches on the year having had to overcome injuries that limited his
availability to the final 6 games of the season. Once healthy, he produced more in his
abbreviated season than he did in his entire 2015 campaign. A junior, it will be interesting to watch
Caleb sneak up on sports media for his senior year as a Commodore.
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Updates to follow throughout the Bowl Season!
