Review of the 2016 Pre-Season Top 10 Return on Investment WRs

Preseason ROI Top 10

The players below appeared in a September 3rd post (found here)  which designated them the Top 10  returning WRs in terms of Return on Investment for 2015.  That list has been updated comparing the preliminary preseason ROI based on the 2015 regular season with the current ROI as of the end of the 2016 regular season (which does not take into account targets, TDs or exclude RB numbers from the calculation).  While a nice way to investigate progress of these players, the ROI results presented will materially change as additional data (Bowl data, players draft declaration decisions, target data, etc) becomes available and so the numbers and rankings will move around before the draft begins April 27^th.   So, in comparing last year to this year so far and to avoid any “apples to oranges” comparisons, it is prudent to focus on the percentage above or below the average ROI for each receiver.

ROI is a Screening not an Evaluation Tool

Also, ROI was developed as a screening tool to help football fans see “through the numbers” so sift out potential under the radar players, not as a “Best WR” list.  It simply shows you who is producing so that those players can get a closer look.

The "E" word

To differentiate players who have an increasing trend over each successive statistical category (please see the original article here for a detailed description of ROI) , I came up with the really bad label of “Elite”; I am looking to dump that term given the connotations it may give off.  A better term would be “Progressively Efficient” or “Positive Efficient Trend” (PET?). 

The Top 10

Here is the list of Draft Eligible top performers all of which earned the preseason ROI "Elite" designated with their 2016 actual results.

1. Da'Mari Scott - Fresno State, Sr- 6'0" 211 lbs  Total ROI: 59.2% more production than his expected pro rata share which is 235% better than the average of qualifying players.

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: N/A 

No statistics generated 2016 season given health issues for Scott.  He will evidently return on a redshirt for a final year of eligibility.

2. Tanner Gentry - Wyoming, Sr - 6'2" 201 lbs.  38/56/702.  ROI 49.8% (182% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: 20.1% (25%).  

Gentry ends the regular season with the 12^th highest raw ROI for qualifying seniors.   A leader on the Cowboys team, he is projected as WR72 by CBS Sports.

3. Cody Thompson - Toledo, Jr - 6'1" 202 lbs.  37/66/825. ROI 45.5% (157% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI:  37.1% (130%), 

Good for 5^th for all qualifying draft eligible players in 2016. Thompson is returning for his senior season (which is a good thing given so few are tracking his career at this point) to try to top his solid 59/1170/10 stat line, which will give Toledo a nice foundation in 2017.

4. Tyrain Taylor - New Mexico State, Sr - 5'9" 162 lbs. 40/62/690.  ROI 44.5% (152% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: 53.0% (223%)

 Unfortunately, the really low reception total (22) was far short of the minimum receptions required of 41 (at least 1 standard deviation from the mean) for inclusion.  Very slight of build, it would be an achievement for Taylor, who was not his teams primary punt and kick return man, to find a home as a receiver in the NFL.

5.  Jerome Lane - Akron, Jr - 6'3" 220 lbs. 39/73/782.  ROI 44.1% (150% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: 16.3% (1% below average) 

Lane garnered recognition in amateur scouting media, however his regular season stat line of 62/1018/6 placed him at 31^st overall in terms of receiving yards. Although a junior, this son of a former NFL linebacker feels he is ready to make the jump and has declared for the draft.   His declaration may prove to be regrettable, given the number of other proven WE talents available in the upcoming NFL draft 2017. Certainly another year in school could have helped him build notoriety for the 2018 draft.

6.  Darren Carrington  - Oregon, Jr. 6'2" 195lbs.  32/45/609.  ROI 41.6% (135% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI:  13.8% (16% below average) 

Carrington wisely chose to return to Eugene, OR for his redshirt senior year.  He put up nearly identical numbers with 43 recs for 606 yards and, despite being the Ducks’ leading receiver, could not generate enough offense to be efficient (given the raw data at this point) despite having above average QB play (Ducks pass completion % was 64.4% compared to FBS average of 59.1%).

7.  Josh Reynolds - Texas A&M, Sr. 6'4" 195 lbs.  51/85/907.   ROI 39.4% (123% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: 35.1% (118%).  

Reynolds, who went the JUCO route after receiving no Division I offers out of high school, was again the leading receiver on for the Aggies for what was arguably the most talent WR corps in the country.   Based on a sampling of approximately 30 draft eligible players, Reynolds Final ROI of 54.2% places him as second most productive WR in the country.   CBS Sports has him as WR30 in the 2017 NFL draft.

8.  Jamari Staples - Louisville, Sr. 6'4" 195 lbs. 37/57/638.  ROI 37.2% (111% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: 11.3% (30% below average) 

His workload of 35 catches for less than 600 yards excluded him from our final survey  but Jamari Staples just could not surpass his teammates James Quick and Jaylen Smith in terms of recs and/or yards.  It appears Jamari has no eligibility remaining as he started as a true freshman for UAB’s now defunct football program. 

9.  Rodney Adams, South Florida, Sr. 6'1" 190 lbs. 44/69/816.  ROI 35.4% (101% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: -5.2% for inefficient performance.  

Adams put up 755 yards on 60 receptions,  but saw a marked decline in efficiency.  Using raw numbers, it appears his teams heavy use of running backs (they had about 24% of team receptions and 21% of team yards) took a big bite out of his ROI numbers through the end of the season (final ROI excludes RB statistics).  It will be interesting to see how his final ROI numbers pan out.  CBSSports has him listed as WR45 in the upcoming draft.

10. Caleb Scott, Vanderbilt, Jr. 6'2" 195 lbs.  24/40/339.  ROI 32.0% (81% above average).

Actual Regular Season 2016  ROI: 71.1% (330%) 

Caleb would not have qualified as he had only 20 catches on the year having had to overcome injuries that limited his availability to the final 6 games of the season.  Once healthy, he produced more in his abbreviated season than he did in his entire 2015 campaign.  A junior, it will be interesting to watch Caleb sneak up on sports media for his senior year as a Commodore.  

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Updates to follow throughout the Bowl Season!