2016-2017 Top Draft Eligible Return on Investment Wide Receivers (FBS)

FINALLY!

The 2016 College Football season could not come upon us at a better time.  This year has an especially talented crop of players at the Wide Receiver position, many of whom are already considered obvious draft picks.  But there are many candidates who demonstrated a high level of efficiency during the 2015-16 season who may be flying under the radar.

Return on Investment

The concept this Blog uses to screen out such players is explained in detail here Understanding the Concept of WR Return on Investment but briefly, it ranks players based on their percentage contribution of team targets, receptions and yards.  This metric attempts to validate the amount of "output" a WR provides in terms of his ability to convert targets into receptions and receptions into yards, relative to the rest of his team. It is a measure of his overall contribution to his team.  This helps us measure a player's pro rata output and not simply form an opinion based on raw numbers.  The analysis we use is currently based on 2015-2016 statistics which will be replaced with current numbers throughout the year as they are generated. The players listed below were highly efficient last year, however, don't be surprised if this list looks complete different by Bowl Season. The field of eligible receivers is limited to FBS players (as Targets data is difficult to harvest for non-FBS divisions) with a minimum number of targets, 34, which is set at 1 standard deviation below the sample's target average.   The data below will list the top WRs with above average ROIs, so, not all receivers with positive ROI are on this list. Players may be considered "Elite".  These performers show a progressive trend in the metrics, in terms of converting targets into receptions and receptions into yards.  There are many outstanding players who will be household names who will screen out as "Inefficient" (the opposite of "Elite") with negative ROI.  This analysis is not to identify the best players but it hopes to identify players who may have work  habits and skill sets that elevate their performance so that they can economically contribute more to their teams in terms of receptions and completions based on the targets they receive.  That is Return on Investment.
maywho may not yet have the media buzz as some of the other WRs out today.

The List

Here is the list of Draft Eligible top performers all of which are designated "Elite":

1. Da'Mari Scott - Fresno State, Sr- 6'0" 211 lbs 24 receptions on 37 targets for 364 yards. He provided 59.2% more production than his expected pro rata share which is 235% better than the average of qualifying players.

2. Tanner Gentry - Wyoming, Sr - 6'2" 201 lbs.  38/56/702.  ROI 49.8% (182% above average).

3. Cody Thompson - Toledo, Jr - 6'1" 202 lbs.  37/66/825. ROI 45.5% (157% above average).

4. Tyrain Taylor - New Mexico State, Sr - 5'9" 162 lbs. 40/62/690.  ROI 44.5% (152% above average).

5.  Jerome Lane - Akron, Jr - 6'3" 220 lbs. 39/73/782.  ROI 44.1% (150% above average).

6.  Darren Carrington  - Oregon, Jr. 6'2" 195lbs.  32/45/609.  ROI 41.6% (135% above average).

7.  Josh Reynolds - Texas A&M, Sr. 6'4" 195 lbs.  51/85/907.   ROI 39.4% (123% above average).

8.  Jamari Staples - Louisville, Sr. 6'4" 195 lbs. 37/57/638.  ROI 37.2% (111% above average).

9.  Rodney Adams, South Florida, Sr. 6'1" 190 lbs. 44/69/816.  ROI 35.4% (101% above average).

10. Caleb Scott, Vanderbilt, Jr. 6'2" 195 lbs.  24/40/339.  ROI 32.0% (81% above average).

11.  Stacy Coley, Miami (FL), Sr. 6'1" 187 lbs. 47/65/689.  ROI 27.8% (58% above average).

12. Taywan Taylor Western Kentucky, Sr. 6'1" 195 lbs.  86/115/1467.  ROI 27.8% (57% above average).

13.  Allan Lazard, Iowa State, Jr. 6'5" 223 lbs.  58/92/879.  ROI 27.4% (55% above average).

14.  Drew Wolitarsky, Minnesota, Sr. 6'3" 218 lbs. 39/62/524.  ROI 26.4% (50% above average).

15.  Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State, Sr. 6'0" 175 lbs. 89/140/1431. ROI 25.6% (43% above average).

16.  Kermit Whitfield, Florida State, Sr. 5'8" 184 lbs.  57/71/791.  ROI 25.2% (43% above average).

17.  Jurmicheal Ramos, NC State, Sr (injured, possible redshirt) 6'2" 200 lbs.  34/53/457. ROI 22.9% (30% above average).

18.  Jeff Badet, Kentucky, Jr. 6'0" 182 lbs.  29/49/430.  ROI 21.1% (20% above average).

19.  Steve Ishmael, Syracuse, Jr. 6'2" 203 lbs.  39/61/570.  ROI 20.0% (13% above average).

20.Bra'Lon Cherry, NC State, Sr. 5'11" 191 lbs. 23/39/324.  ROI 18.3% (4% above average).

Shameless Self-promotion!

Check this blog for weekly performance updates on these players and the 2016-17 top performers in terms of ROI.

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Thank you!