Wednesday, October 5, 2016

UPDATED w/ FCS & DII Wide Receiver Return on Investment Week 5 ending 10/1/2016

Week 6 of FBS begins today so there is no better time than the present to close out Week 5 with an update of the Top Return on Investment Receivers.  But first, an update on last week’s Players to Watch:

Toledo's Cody Thompson vs. BYU 5/161/1
Syracuse's Amba Etta-Tawo vs ND 7/134/1
Oklahoma State’s James Washington vs. Texas 3/91/1
Iowa State's Allen Lazard vs. Baylor 3/33/0
Tennessee’s Josh Malone vs. Georgia 2/23/0
TCU's John Diarse vs. Oklahoma 1/10/0
Wisconsin's Jazz Peavey vs. Michigan 1/7/0

ROI represents the amount of yards a Wide Receiver generates in excess of his distribution  - Post Season ROI will consider Targets, Receptions and Yards, however, In-Season ROI will consider just Receptions and Yards (unless someone knows a site that provides target data during the season).  

For a more detailed description, follow this link to the article on Return on Investment.

Top 20 FBS ROI  - Revolving Door at the #1 spot
For a third straight week we have a new #1.  Welcome, Mr. Jimmy Williams of ECU, a former dual threat QB who was an invited walk on from local Washington high school.
Table Notes:
DNQ means did not qualify for inclusion in Top 20 list.
Above Average means the number of times better than average ROI Player has performed through the season to date. 

This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
Weeks on List
1
DNQ
Jimmy Williams
East Carolina
Sr.
97.3%
            4.43
1
2
3
Sheldon Gibson
West Virginia
Jr.
83.1%
            3.78
2
3
DNQ
Cody Thompson
Toledo
Jr.
74.1%
           3.37
2
4
DNQ
Thaddeous Thompson
North Texas
Sr.
68.8%
            3.13
1
5
2
Josh Reynolds
Texas A&M
Sr.
65.2%
            2.96
4
6
4
Kevin Kutchera
Southern Alabama
Sr.
53.9%
            2.45
3
7
DNQ
Taj Williams
TCU
Jr.
48.9%
            2.23
1
8
13
Sebastian Smith
Ohio
Sr.
48.0%
            2.18
3
9
15
Amba Etta-Tawo
Syracuse
Sr.
47.6%
            2.16
3
10
10
Marcus Kemp
Hawaii
Sr.
46.5%
            2.11
4
11
6
Devonte Boyd
UNLV
Sr.
46.4%
            2.11
3
12
8
James Washington
Oklahoma State
Jr.
45.9%
            2.09
3
13
DNQ
Aaron Peck
Fresno State
Sr.
44.2%
            2.01
1
14
19
Shay Fields
Colorado
Jr.
44.1%
            2.01
2
15
14
Kalib Woods
Florida Atlantic
Jr.
43.9%
            2.00
2
16
9
Devin Gray
Cincinnati
Jr.
39.2%
            1.78
3
17
11
Tim Patrick
Utah
Sr.
37.7%
            1.71
3
18
5
T.L. Ford II
Charlotte
Jr.
37.2%
            1.69
3
19
DNQ
Donald Gray
Mississippi St.
Jr.
36.3%
            1.65
1
20
17
Kenny Golladay
Northern Ill.
Sr.
35.2%
            1.60
2



Half of the receivers have been on the Top 20 list 3 or more times so far this season with TAMU's Josh Reynolds and Hawaii's Marcus Kemp having made the list each week of publication so far in the 2016-17 season. 

Top 20 Players to Watch

  • Jimmy Williams @ South Florida - The new ROI WR1 has a tough contest in USF ranked #21 in Passing Defense.  If there's a game, that means the hurricane's impact was minimal.  Here's hoping for an on time kick off. 
  • Josh Reynolds vs. Tennessee - This SEC match up will shake up the rankings as Texas A&M (8) hosts the ninth ranked team in the nation.   Reynolds continues to maintain high efficiency even when sharing the ball with arguably the top WR corps in FBS. 
  • Sebastian Smith vs. Bowling Green - There will likely be a track meet going on during the football game as Ohio faces the team second to last in terms of Passing Defense.  Already giving up over 300 passing yards and 4 receiving TDs per game, don't be surprised if Smith rises in the next Top 20 list. 
  • Shay Fields @ USC - Colorado is ranked 21 and gets a USC that had rough start at 2-3, but don't let the record fool you.  Every team they played was undefeated at game time including 3 teams ranked in the Top 25 including Stanford and Alabama.  Fields can make a name for himself with a solid outing here.
  • Donald Gray vs. Auburn -  Another SEC matchup with Mississippi State facing the a defense that has allowed just 4 passing TDs so far this season.

FCS Update

This week I updated the FCS WR table to include juniors because there are some outstanding players who, even if they don't enter this year's draft, would be good to keep an eye on before they enter their final year of eligibility. 
             
This Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
1
Liberty
Sr.
82.5%
 3.96
2
McNeese
Jr.
70.1%
 3.37
3
San Diego
Sr.
61.3%
 2.94
4
Southern Utah
Sr.
57.7%
 2.77
5
William & Mary
Jr.
56.7%
 2.72
6
Davidson
Jr.
55.9%
 2.68
7
Lehigh
Jr.
55.7%
 2.68
8
Southeast Mo. St.
Jr.
54.5%
 2.61
9
Chattanooga
Sr.
47.5%
 2.28
10
Duquesne
Sr.
44.6%
 2.14
11
Delaware
Jr.
43.4%
 2.08
12
Towson
Sr.
43.1%
 2.07
13
Stetson
Sr.
41.6%
 2.00
14
Colgate
Sr.
39.6%
 1.90
15
Butler
Sr.
38.8%
 1.86
16
Northern Colo.
Sr.
38.4%
 1.84
17
Bryant
Sr.
36.0%
 1.73
18
Illinois St.
Sr.
35.7%
 1.71
19
Northern Ariz.
Jr.
35.5%
 1.70
20
Stony Brook
Jr.
32.9%
 1.58

Dante Shells of Liberty leads the pack. Also, a McDonald's basketball All-American nominee, Shells was first team all-state in Delaware who had solid games vs. FBS opponents over the last two season.  Shells leads in both raw and QB adjusted ROI.

Division II Update

Just like the other Division I, I've included juniors in the rankings. 

This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
1
1
Ky. Wesleyan
Sr.
98.5%
 3.95
2
2
Paris Woods
Northern Mich.
Sr.
74.1%
 2.97
3
DNQ
Charles Holland
Tiffin
Jr.
68.1%
 2.73
4
7
Eric Poindexter
Quincy
Sr.
62.3%
 2.50
5
DNQ
DJ Williams
Glenville St.
Jr.
62.1%
 2.49
6
4
Matt Heller
Augustana (SD)
Sr.
55.0%
 2.21
7
DNQ
Akkil Walker
Minot St.
Sr.
47.1%
 1.89
8
DNQ
Kellen Williams
Kutztown
Sr.
46.8%
 1.88
9
3
Connor Pulley
Central Okla.
Sr.
44.9%
 1.80
10
8
Shawn Seif
Lock Haven
Sr.
44.4%
 1.78

Keelan Cole has been a star for years at Kentucky Wesleyan and so his maintenance of the top spot should be no surprise. He is a true talent, having played WR and QB in high school were he won 3 Kentucky state championships out of Central HS in Louisville.   Paris Wood, however, is not as well known a commodity.
 Don't forget to check back for updates next week.  Thanks!

No comments:

Post a Comment