Saturday, October 15, 2016

Week 6 in Review - NCAA Wide Receiver ROI Efficiency Rankings


Week 6 of FBS begins today so there is no better time than the present to close out Week 5 with an update of the Top Return on Investment Receivers.  But first, an update on last week’s Players to Watch:

ECU's Jimmy Williams @ South Florida  1/3/0
TAMU's Josh Reynolds vs Tennessee 5/89/1
Ohio’s Sebastian Smith vs. Bowling Green 5/72/1
Colorado's Shay Fields vs. USC 4/32/0
Mississippi State's Donald Gray vs. Auburn 0/0/0

Off week for the one's to watch.


ROI represents the amount of yards a Wide Receiver generates in excess of his distribution  - Post Season ROI will consider Targets, Receptions and Yards, however, In-Season ROI will consider just Receptions and Yards (unless someone knows a site that provides target data during the season).  

For a more detailed description, follow this link to the article on Return on Investment.

Top 20 FBS ROI  - Still the One
Finally, a repeat FBS #1.  Mr. Jimmy Williams of ECU, a former dual threat QB who was an invited walk on from local Washington high school, maintains the top spot.   His ROI is 4.4x better than the average for FBS, a  higher margin than any of the other division leaders. 

Table Notes:
DNQ means did not qualify for inclusion in Top 20 list.
Above Average means the number of times better than average ROI Player has performed through the season to date. 

This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
1
1
Jimmy Williams
East Carolina
Sr.
97.3%
 4.40
2
2
Shelton Gibson
West Virginia
Jr.
82.8%
 3.74
3
DNQ
Allenzae Staggers
Southern Miss.
Jr.
67.5%
 3.05
4
3
Cody Thompson
Toledo
Jr.
66.2%
 2.99
5
5
Josh Reynolds
Texas A&M
Sr.
59.6%
 2.69
6
4
Thaddeous Thompson
North Texas
Sr.
57.6%
 2.60
7
DNQ
Jared Cornelius
Arkansas
Jr.
54.9%
 2.48
8
7
Taj Williams
TCU
Jr.
53.6%
 2.42
9
8
Sabastian Smith
Ohio
Sr.
46.6%
 2.11
10
11
James Washington
Oklahoma St.
Jr.
45.0%
 2.03
11
10
Devonte Boyd
UNLV
Jr.
44.4%
 2.00
12
9
Amba Etta-Tawo
Syracuse
Sr.
44.2%
 2.00
13
14
Kalib Woods
Fla. Atlantic
Jr.
43.9%
 1.98
14
12
Aaron Peck
Fresno St.
Sr.
41.2%
 1.86
15
13
Shay Fields
Colorado
Jr.
40.7%
 1.84
16
20
Ricky Jones
Indiana
Sr.
40.4%
 1.83
17
54
Carlos Henderson
Louisiana Tech
Jr.
39.1%
 1.77
18
16
Tim Patrick
Utah
Sr.
37.9%
 1.71
19
19
Kenny Golladay
Northern Ill.
Sr.
37.1%
 1.68
20
DNQ
Elijah King
Texas St.
Jr.
35.8%
 1.62

Devonte Boyd and Josh Reynolds are the only members of the list to made the list each week since the first publication.  
Newly qualified additions to the list:  Allenzae Staggers of Southern Mississippi, Jared Cornelius of Arkansas and Elijah King of Texas State.
Top 20 FBS Players to Watch

Toledo's Cody Thompson vs. Bowling Green: Thompson is #8 in terms of receiving yards.  BGSU is 126th in Pass Defense Efficiency.  Do the math.

Arkansas' Jared Cornelius vs. Ole Miss:  This is a nice challenge for Jared vs. the top 35 Passing Defense.

Northern Illinois' Kenny Golladay vs. Central Michigan: Last year, Golladay was a solid ROI performer and has just hit his stride.

Top 20 FCS - New King

San Diego's Brian Riley takes over the top spot.   The list has stayed fairly consistent since inception with not many additions since the last list.  The margin of differential is fairly tight in FCS so the likelihood of the top spots shifting is high. 
This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
1
3
Brian Riley
San Diego
Sr.
57.4%
 2.89
2
12
Christian Summers
Towson
Sr.
57.2%
 2.88
3
DNQ
Brandon Acker
Southeastern La.
Sr.
57.1%
 2.88
4
2
Darious Crawley
McNeese
Jr.
49.2%
 2.48
5
16
Stephen Miller
Northern Colo.
Sr.
47.2%
 2.38
6
19
Elijah Marks
Northern Ariz.
Jr.
45.2%
 2.28
7
10
Wayne Capers
Duquesne
Sr.
44.6%
 2.25
8
7
Gatlin Casey
Lehigh
Jr.
44.0%
 2.22
9
5
Devonte Dedmon
William & Mary
Jr.
43.1%
 2.17
10
6
Jaris Scott
Davidson
Jr.
40.4%
 2.03
11
9
Xavier Borishade
Chattanooga
Sr.
38.4%
 1.93
12
18
Anthony Warrum
Illinois St.
Sr.
36.8%
 1.86
13
8
Adrian Davis
Southeast Mo. St.
Jr.
36.5%
 1.84
14
13
Kegan Moore
Stetson
Sr.
36.5%
 1.84
15
17
Taylor Barthelette
Bryant
Sr.
35.9%
 1.81
16
20
Ray Bolden
Stony Brook
Jr.
35.0%
 1.76
17
14
John Maddaluna
Colgate
Sr.
34.7%
 1.75
18
DNQ
Jaleel Reed
Maine
Jr.
34.7%
 1.75
19
DNQ
Danny Cotter
Butler
Sr.
31.3%
 1.57
20
25
Lance Lenoir
Western Ill.
Sr.
29.4%
 1.48

Division II - Undisputed

Keelan Cole has remained the WR#1 since week 1 in Division II and his margin of separation is by far the greatest week in and week out.  Three new qualifiers have joined the list this week.
This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
1
1
Keelan Cole
Ky. Wesleyan
Sr.
86.8%
 3.44
2
3
Charles Holland
Tiffin
Jr.
67.6%
 2.68
3
DNQ
Dallas Baldner
Valdosta St.
Jr.
50.2%
 1.99
4
6
Matt Heller
Augustana (SD)
Sr.
49.7%
 1.97
5
DNQ
Dan Monteroso
West Liberty
Sr.
49.6%
 1.97
6
12
Josh Crockett
Central Okla.
Jr.
48.5%
 1.92
7
13
Nate Ricci
Minn. Duluth
Jr.
44.2%
 1.75
8
DNQ
James Roe
Elizabeth City St.
Sr.
41.7%
 1.65
9
10
Shawn Seif
Lock Haven
Sr.
41.1%
 1.63
10
16
Damon Gibson
MSU Moorhead
Jr.
41.0%
 1.63

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