2nd Annual Pre-Combine DraftTwitter Top 100 Prospects List

Don't Call it a Comeback

Last year, dozens of intrepid football analysts came together to provide a listing of the top prospects in that year's draft.  Each one painstakingly filled out an online spreadsheet, ranking their top players.  Those ballots were aggregated to compile a top 100 list to represent the attitude of DraftTwitter.  Overall, that group did a better job at picking players than the actual league and this year's group is looking to keep the trend going with the second annual survey. 

The List

This is not a mock draft, but a ranking of the top prospects. Players are ranked 1 to 100 getting 100 points for each first place vote, 99 points for #2 and so on with the 100th ranked player receiving 1 point.  The scores are averaged across all voters and ranked based on that score. 

Fun Facts

Here are some of the interesting items: 

• 187 different players received votes. (Deep Cover is playing in my head now.)
• There are two non-FBS players in the top 100 (compared to 3 last year):  Dallas Goedert of South Dakota State (#48) and Darius Leonard of South Carolina State (#100) .
• Sam Darnold, the projected overall #1 selection in many mock drafts, is graded the 17th best player in this upcoming draft. 
• Quarterbacks have the highest average score of 65.93.
• Safeties are the lowest scoring group with an average of 32.11.
• The most competitive position is Wide Receivers which has an average score differential of 4.68 compared to the other WRs.
• The least competitive position is Guard which has an average score differential of 20.89 points.
• The largest gaps between consecutive position players is at Guard; Braden Smith is 48.33 points behind Will Hernandez.  Here are the other gaps across the rest of the player positions:

Doppelgangers

Here are some players who have identical scores:

• QB Sam Darnold and OT Mike McGlinchey  
• S DeShone Elliott and TE Mike Gesicki
• QB Mason Rudolph and WR Dante Pettis
• C Frank Ragnow and WR D.J. Chark
• S Marcus Allen and WR Dontay Burnett

Post Combine Ballot

Once the Combine wraps up, we will start accepting ballots for the final aggregation through the week before the NFL player draft.  Please reach out to have a ballot (which is on an Excel online based spreadsheet that is quick and easy to use) by leaving a comment or emailing me at boombearfootballmail@gmail to have a ballot link forwarded to you.  

Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

NEW VIDEO POST: BY THE NUMBERS - Top NFL Draft WRs by ROI Part 4 of 4: Division FBS Part I

The Most Elite ROI Prospects of FBS  

The first 3 installments of this series showcased the most efficient wide receivers in FCS,  Division II and Division III based on my Return on Investment methodology.   Now we arrive at the FBS division, which contains most of the big names college football fans hear around the water cooler.  But, there will likely also be some names that are new to you.  ROI is not based on racking up large numbers, but through context, derives how much of the load each WR bears for his team.  On the list you will find names in your discussions for the WR1 distinction and names that may make you say, "Huh?"  Do yourself a favor and take a long look at these perspective hopefuls as there are many gems hiding in plain sight.

We will present the Top 20 ROI WRs but will post a 2 part article with this piece covering players #11-20.  The Top 10 will post at a later date, with a subsequent article discussing which ROI WRs show traits that may help them get to the ultimate stage, the NFL. 

Here is part 1 of the final BY THE NUMBERS: 2017 NCAA WR series, the FBS!  Thank you. and enjoy.

Look for this spot for the top 10 FBS  Return on Investment players in a final two part series!

Shameless Self-Promotion

The time for pre-Combine ballots for the NFL Draft prospect top 100 list has passed (article to come) but you have plenty of time to get your ballot in for the actual draft in a couple of months.    I am looking for  100+ voters  amateur and professional football scouts to use our simple online ballot to vote for your top 100 NFL draft prospects.   THIS IS NOT A MOCK DRAFT, but simply we want YOUR take on the best prospects in the upcoming 2018 draft. 

Please leave a comment or contact @boombearjr on Twitter if you would like to receive a ballot as we would love to have you!   

Under The Microscope - 2018 NFL Draft QBs

OK, Let’s Get into It

At the end of the regular season, you read an analysis of the current NFL QB draft prospects to produce a Top 10 list based on statistical metrics.  This sort of analysis is intended to be fully "blind"...that is, a series of measures should be laid out and the figures calculated so that we have no ability to influence the ranking to fit any preconceived idea of how the "winners" should look. We ent back and completed the model by adding Bowl games and excluding dropped passes. 

QBs were ranked based on the following criteria:

• Yds/Att - Yards per Passing Attempt

• Att/INT - number of Attempts to generate 1 Interception

• INT/INC - The ratio of Interceptions to Incompletions

• TD/INT - Ratio of Touchdowns to Interceptions

• ATT/TD - Number of Passing Attempts to generate 1 TD. 

OA Rank = Overall rank inclusive of non-draft QBs
Metrics adjusted for receiver drops.  Minimum 200 attempts.

Disclaimer - The above does NOT represent a list of the "Best NFL Draft QBs" or "Boombear's Picks for the Coming Draft"; it is simply a way to present a series of statistical measures, which may or may not have relevance of any kind.   I'm so glad I got that off my chest.

So, here is what we found out. 

• If Logan Woodside is drafted and lights up training camp, I want The Other Guy's job on ESPN.  He was #1 for our post season QB statistical analysis and he's stayed firm. I'm a big fan of his quick delivery, his toughness and his ability to fling the ball down the field for distance and velocity. 
• Lamar Jackson was a respectable number 19 overall for the prior post season ranking but due to elimination of receiver drops from the calculation, he jumps to #3 overall.
• Danny Etling from LSU snuck up on this list because of his low INTs.  The Purdue transfer had a 2 year audition for the NFL at Baton Rouge so we will see how he performs at the Combine and during workouts.
• Rodney Dangerfield would love #6-#10...no respect.  Wolford, Lamb and Shimonek were solid leaders who should get a second glance this Pre-Draft season.  (Ferguson and Griggs have not been as thoroughly reviewed on video as the other three.) 

Hey, Where's Whatshisface?

Some unexplained force conditions us to expect certain names to be presented at the top of every list.  When they are not there, our Pavlovian drool begins to run, and our arms are up protesting this obvious error. When it is revealed the anointed ones were omitted from the list by design, choruses of "Don't overthink this!!" cascade like clockwork.  

The table above is "missing" some players.  Here they are:

#13.  JT. Barrett - Average Rank: 34.8

#22  Josh Rosen - A.R.: 44.2

#29  Sam Darnold - A.R.: 52.2.   

#38  Josh Allen - A.R.: 73.8

Before reacting, remember, this is one set of metrics selected by one person.  I'm sure I could broaden t the search crieria but hey, you have a computer.   Go crunch some numbers and see what you find.

Shameless Self Promotion

FINAL WEEK  FOR THE 2ND ANNUAL DRAFTTWITTER TOP 100 SURVEY pre Combine ballots!!!

Last year, 25 amateur, semi pro and professional scouts clicked through a simple Excel based ballot and created a Top 100 list of players that has successfully (thus far) proven to a better value than the players picked by our favorite GMs last year.  

Join the fun! To receive a ballot, send your name, email and social media handled for football discussion to boombearfootballmail@gmail.com  No pressure, just have fun.

Under the Microscope - The Truth About QB Drops

Who's Teammates are Really Dropping the Ball?

Draft season is officially upon us and one of the main topics of discussion is quarterbacks. The game footage is reviewed and stats analyzed, yet, analysts seem to rarely come to consensus on any one issue.  One of the topics recently bouncing around social media is quarterbacks suffering from wide receiver drops.  Player "Camps" are defending their dudes, citing stone-handed receivers impacting their prospect's play.  The following attempts to clarify those who are really impacted by WR play by looking at the complete picture. 

The Dropsies

Perhaps you've seen a version of the following list:

QBs with Most Dropped Passes

1. Josh Rosen - 35
2. Lamar Jackson -33
3. Mason Rudolph - 30
4. Sam Darnold -19
5. Josh Allen - 12

The table above is representative of most I've seen, which try to isolate the popular media QB names for NFL Draft 2018.  So Mike White's 43 dropped passes are often overlooked as well as Riley Ferguson's.  Perhaps this is warranted, given  White, the Western Kentucky product, threw 521 passes, 64% more than the average QB in our sample (which included all FBS starters for the majority of the season)..  Or is it?

Krummie's Axiom 

A million years ago, I worked with a guy we called Krummie; not because we thought little of him, but it was a shortening of his last name.  At any rate, Krummie had a saying, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure." I am fluent in Brooklynese and will translate.  In short, figures should be framed in the proper context or they can easily be misleading. 

The most obvious way to look at who was hurt and who was helped would be to look at Attempts/Drops  ratio  - the smaller that number is, the more the QB suffered. 

The Oven Mitt Award Goes To....

Not Rosen, although he was close at 5th out of the 19 draft eligible players in the survey.  Mike White and Lamar Jackson tie in getting the least help from their receiving corps, each suffering through one dropped pass every 12.1 pass attempts, twice the butter finger rate as Danny Etling of LSU who had the best ratio. .

Although the quarterbacks are named on this list of dropped pass ratios, it is critical to keep in mind these figures are more an indication of receiver play.  While ball placement and touch definitely have impact on dropped passes, the list might be better used to measure WRs and TEs (the lower on the list, the fewer drops) than provide to provide the "poor supporting cast" argument for QBs.

Shameless Self Promotion

IT'S TIME FOR THE 2ND ANNUAL DRAFTTWITTER TOP 100 SURVEY!!!

Last year, 25 amateur, semi pro and professional scouts clicked through a simple Excel based ballot and created a Top 100 list of players that has successfully (thus far) proven to a better value than the players picked by our favorite GMs last year.  

Join the fun! To receive a ballot, send your name, email and social media handled for football discussion to boombearfootballmail@gmail.com  No pressure, just have fun.