Has His NY Jets Supporting Cast Dragged Down Sam Darnold?

Looking at Expected Performance

Looking back at the 2020-21 NY Jets season is not pleasant but it is necessary if the team is to move forward and progress. A huge part of the evaluation will be what to do at the Quarterback position and that largely rests on the question of Sam Darnold's future with the team.   

After three years, his performance has not seemed to reflect his #3 overall draft position, but to be fair, his coaching and team mate carousel has not stopped spinning since he got here.  So how do we evaluate if it makes sense to bring him back or if the team should look at other options?  

In the 2020 season Sam missed several games due to injury and his backup was Super Bowl winning QB, Joe Flacco.  Flacco is not the player he once was but the above the neck skills don't erode. Let's take a look at performance for both, not in terms of wins and losses but in terms of actual results compared to expected performance:

Comparing Rates

To compare the teammates head to head, we look at the rates of certain statistics compared to the baseline share of attempts.  For example, Darnold had 364 attempts of the total 498 between the two, so he had a 73.1% share.   He had 71.9% of the passing yards which represents 1.7% fewer yards than his expected return [(Yards Rate-Attempts Rate)/Attempts Rate]. If we compare all statistical ratios to the Attempts ratios for both, and take the difference between their scores, here is what stands out.

• TD's - Difference between their share rates is 66.6% in favor of Flacco. It's no secret to anyone who watched the games.
• Scramble and Pressure- The Scramble difference was 54.8%.  Flacco is nearing the end of his career so no shock since he was not a huge run threat anyway but Darnold leaves the pocket almost 15% more than expected.  This is most interesting when you see they faced about the same amount of pressure.
• Sacks and Throwaways - Sack difference is 52.1% with Sam getting sacked 14% more than expected.  The Throwaway difference mirrors the sacks with a differential of 27.2% in favor of Flacco.  The veteran experience really shows through here. 

From comparing rates, it seems pretty clear that Flacco had more success in the Jets offense than Darnold despite the teams overall disappointing performance this year. 

Making Players Better

Another measure of a QB is how he "elevates" the team around him.  In this context, let's look at how WRs performed across a couple of different rate metrics. 

• Receptions to Targets 
• Yards to Receptions
• Touchdowns to Receptions

Compared to the production averages,  Jet receivers generally have better than expected completion percentages under Darnold (except for Perriman who had 15.8% better than expected completion rate under Flacco). None of the teams top receivers had better than single digit vs. expected rate.  

Conversely, everyone except Crowder generated better than expected yards per reception under Flacco with rates greater than 17.2%.  With Crowder's Yards/Rec rate just 1.5% above expected when Sam dealt him the ball, his big cap number has to be a factor in putting together the 2022 team.

For Touchdowns, players not named Berrios performed better under Flacco (Mims had no TDs). 

We can create a summary table from the above:

Here are the differentials (positive is favorable for Darnold, negative favorable for Flacco).

Inferences:

1. Flacco is materially better than Darnold in nearly all categories of the expected rate statistical analysis above.  Where Darnold is better, it is marginally so in terms of Drops, Pressure and On Target passes.
2. Darnold is better at getting completions than Flacco but we have to consider the Complete Air Yards/Completion average for Darnold is 4.9 compared to 7.0 by Flacco could be a contributing factor.
3. Given the huge difference in performance between having Flacco under center than when Darnold was in the game, Herndon should be brought back in 2021.
4. Perriman really benefitted from working with Flacco so it will be interesting to see if he is brought back in some capacity. 

My Thoughts

Not going to say that Flacco should be a part of the long term future plan for the Jets.  He is a fine backup, as seen during telecasts when he was often seen on the sidelines going over plays with Darnold after offensive series.  The question has always been about what the commitment to Sam should be, going forward.  Often the discussion involves lack of supporting cast for Darnold as a reason for his lack of progress.   The information above makes it hard to accept that rationale.  Given Flacco had greater success in terms of generating yards and touchdowns over expectation, it's clear the offense left a bit on the table when Sam was in.  

In a situation where there was not a looming financial commitment on the horizon, perhaps another year to evaluate might be appropriate especially given the constant revolving door of Offensive Coordinators and the head coach change Darnold had to deal with since he arrived from USC.  But for a team that traded up to acquire Sam, it's clear he has not lived up to his potential and at some point, they have to make some profound effort to right the ship. How Sam fits into the equation remains to be see.  And with the numbers above, his inconsistent performances this year can't be credited entirely as a function of his supporting cast. 

   

*****************************************************************************

Other Posts To Read

The Nut Doesn't Fall Far from the Coaching Tree - Looking at the lineages of some of the NFL head coaching prospects for 2021.  Boombear's College Football Analysis: Strong Roots: NFL Head Coaching Vacancies and Coaching Trees (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

ADP and Wins - How much does draft position of starting players correlate to wins?  Let's look at a small sample to see what we can find. Boombear's College Football Analysis: Correlation Between ADP and Team Win Percentage (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)

Tanking for Trevor - Everyone wants the highest drafted players but how often do those players lead their teams to Super Bowls?  We have you covered right here!  Boombear's College Football Analysis: Tanking for Trevor (boombearfootball.blogspot.com)