Putting on My Jets Hat
Since my original Jets Reset blog was posted on 10/16/20, a lot has changed:
- The Jets lost their next game 30-10 to the Cardinals, dropping their record to 0-5, eventually going on to end the season 2-14.
- Starting QB Sam Darnold was injured going into Week 5, however when healthy he sported an QB Rating of 70.8 over the first four games of the season. That put him last out of the four 1st round QBs from his draft class (those with starting roles over that same 4 week period).
- Allen (124.0)
- Jackson (111.7)
- Mayfield (98.2).
- Each of the aforementioned QBs took their respective teams to the playoffs this past season.
- With Mayfield leading the Browns to the playoffs, the Jets now have the undesirable title of “Team with Longest Post Season Appearance Drought” (10 seasons).
- Primary RB Frank Gore replaced Le’Veon Bell (released by the team after Week 2 ) but was not able to reach 65 yards from scrimmage in weeks 3-5. He was not able to crack 100 yards in any game the entire season.
- Adam Gase alumnus Kalen Ballage was brought in to help offset the loss of Bell "production" but could only muster a total of 80 yards from scrimmage over his 3 game career as a Jet and was ultimately released.
- Finally, the Jets stunned the football (and gambling) world by upsetting the LA Rams to become the biggest NFL Underdog to win a game in the history of the human life on Earth, while also ruining their chances of securing the top pick in the upcoming draft which would have guaranteed potential All-Galaxy quarterback Trevor Lawrence wearing the Green and White. Sad.
Out with the Old
In the original Jets Reset post, I voiced my skepticism
about the depth of the relationship between former coach Adam Gase and current
GM Joe Douglas, which some media outlets lead us to believe was strong based on their one year
overlap as employees of the Bears. There were thoughts that Joe D would be able to save Gase.
Gase was fired at the end of the season.
I also predicted Joe D would complete a WWE-seque heel turn and consolidate power under the GM making the head coach report directly to
him, which is contrary to the management style the Brothers Johnson have employed
for some time where both HC and GM report separately to ownership.
Given the public comments from The Johnsons and the fact that the HC hiring process, which landed former SF Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh, was clearly run by Joe D, I’d say we have consolidation of power.
The Elephant in the Room
What Does Coach S really think about Sam Darnold?
Head Coach Robert Saleh’s praise of Darnold during his introductory press conference in January 2021, calling Sam tough as nails, lauding his reputation in the locker room as unquestioned, cited great arm talent, pocket fearlessness, intelligence and mobility, has been seen as a sign that Sam is staying for another year. When directly asked about Sam’s future with the team, however, Coach got into his backpedal stating it’s too early to know and that is was unfair to answer that question at this time.
A couple of things:
- Saleh earned a PhD in Darnold last year - The Jets played SF in Week 2 when Sam was active. As defensive coordinator for the Niners, it’s unquestioned that Saleh and his staff spent a significant amount of time looking at the quarterback, Sam Darnold. Coach S is in an elite class as one of 13 Defensive Coordinators who faced the Jets last season. How could it be that his research would not have come up in the interview processes? The point here is Robert is one of the few people who could lead a symposium on all things Sam Darnold, so it is hard to believe he doesn’t already know how he would vote in the Keep Him or Trade Him debate.
- So why not come clean? - If we assume Saleh would want to keep Sam as QB for 2021, what would he gain by being vague during his press conference?
- If the Jets want to keep Sam: Perhaps Management wants to give the message they still have a long way to go before they figure this thing out which would drive up the price of the #2 overall pick which could be traded if they are keeping Darnold. the right for QB2 goes to the highest bidder and there would certainly be a bidding war.
- If the Jets are looking to move on from Sam: The idea that Sam is all the things we thought he might be is not an unpopular opinion and there are certainly GMs who believe so. Saleh pumping SD up in the media helps keep Sam’s interest and potential trade value elevated. Remember, while there are 13 teams that examined Sam’s game with a microscope for game plans last year, there are 18 that did not. Regardless of Sam’s statistics, he is an extremely young, high draft slot QB in a league that has seen Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen become highly regarded, winning QBs almost overnight. There will be a hot market for him.
However you want to spin it, it makes no sense for Saleh to tip the hand. All we can know is if Sam stays that would be huge for the Jets because it would be a glowing endorsement by the man who was paid to develop a plan to stop Darnold in Week 2.
Are We Going to Get DeShaun?
Considering the prior commentary from Coach S about the QB
position, no one really knows which way the team will go. But he's the way I see it going:
Deshaun Watson is a quality QB in every respect, but I can’t see how he can function in HOU. Doing research into his situation, it was clear that he values the player/administration relationship very much. At Clemson when his mother was battling cancer, he credited the University with providing emotional support to help his family get through that tough time. Dabo Sweeney spoke for an interview about how the University rallied around the family at that crucial time. With that kind of history, it’s not surprising Watson was taken aback when the HOU ownership asked for his input into the new front office hires and then summarily ignored his recommendations. It would have been better for HOU to have not even asked at all. HOU seems to have played themselves here. Sure, they could simply stand on the freshly inked contract and I'm sure Watson will play when called on to do so but he not sure how you can expect to get quality out of miserable people. Better just cut your losses and trade him.
In terms of an exit from Watson, it seems only MIA and NYJ have the draft capital to pay the king’s ransom required to pry Watson away.
Prediction - Watson is a Fin- I can’t say what MIA will do but I can’t see the Jets moving the chips in for Watson. MIA is farther down the pike in their rebuild than the Jets and so no one player is going to make that much of a difference for New York. MIA is very close so they don't really need the draft picks. On the flip side, Joe Douglas seems to be a prudent man. He had alligator arms last free agency and has repeated stated he plans to build this team through the draft. Lastly, the illusion that the Jets don’t want Watson will help the Darnold trade value. So, in the end, no Deshaun in NY but they see him twice a year in MIA.
The Jets just have too many holes to plug.
So What Do We Do?
Regarding the QB spot, if they move on from Sam, the #2 pick
will obviously have to be a QB and the two top contenders are well known, Justin
Fields and Zach Wilson. I will do an
overview on these two at a later date but for now, it’s safe to say one of
these two will be the favorite to start Week 1 in 2021. Each has his pluses and minuses; no doubt Joe
D and company will do a deep dive to come up with their favorite option. But that’s boring…
Let’s Go Crazy
But what if the QB choice is not so simple as Fields or Wilson? Both have bright futures but if presumed #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is no guaranty for success, neither is anyone else. Suppose the Jets decide that, if they hit on all other draft picks, they don't need a generational QB to win? What if they trading back out of the #2 spot with the expectation of picking up QB4 or QB5 a bit later in Round 1? With an elite defense, can you win with a competent low floor QB like Mac Jones who can manage games for you? Maybe you extend Flacco for another year and you shoot for the ultra-high ceiling prospect Trey Lance? That would mean the Jets would trade out of the #2 spot, picking up additional draft picks in 2021 and in future years. This would give Management the chance to do right by Sam Darnold for the first time since he was drafted and get him traded to a place where he can start over. But I read the comments all the time, "who would want Sam if he couldn't win HERE?!?
Feeding Frenzy!!
This is a QB driven league. Sam now had more experience at pro QB than 100% of the kids coming out in the draft. While that may not mean much in itself, remember teams are owned and coached by egomaniacs who believe they are always the smartest guy in the room. So can you imagine the chaos that would ensure when the first five QBs are gone and teams are looking at the next tier of prospect signal callers?
Sam Darnold is all that separates 9 teams from drafting Kyle Trask.
It is probable 5 QBs will be drafted in the first round. With the following teams having QB as a top need, #1 Jacksonville, #2 NYJ, #6 PHI, #8 CAR and #9 DEN, the draft could get crazy if #3 MIA and # 4 ATL decide they will pick up a first round passer, shutting out not only CAR and DEN, but also teams like #12 SF, #15 NE, #19 WFT and #20 CHI just in the top 20 picks. There are potentially no fewer than 14 teams chasing after 5 quarterbacks. When Mac Jones comes off the board as high as #6 to the Eagles, the value for Sam Darnold will skyrocket because not many rational football fans could name a Tier 2 QB prospect they would take over Sam.
The Sam price tag would be huge with so many teams looking for QBs. Teams would have to hand over their 2021 first rounder and other future high picks.
At his presser, Coach Saleh kept his mouth shut about Darnold's role with the team. Trading Sam today makes no sense. Waiting until the market is bone dry during the draft is the move that should pay off and could provide the Jets with 3 first round picks in 2021.
Let's see what happens.
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