NFL Draft 2019: Who's Screwed? Part I

Supply and Demand

The NFL is a business and like any business, they rely on product performance to drive revenues.  Performance is driven by players and the players are selected through the player draft.  

Nothing new here.  

But while everyone is mocking away to figure out which team picks which player, I was wondering will there be enough players to go around so each team can fill their weaknesses?

Here we look at each Team's player needs as listed on NFL.com and, based on aggregate valuation of each position using player rankings on several public big boards, we figure out if there will be a surplus or shortfall in player supply.  I took the top 5 position needs multiplied by 32 teams for a total of 160 player needs.  The issue of picks being unequally distributed over those 160 selections is accounted in the calculation (see below)  Then, I assessed each team's "at risk" level of not fulfilling their most pressing needs considering the supply ("Criticality").

This year, it was determined that the position supply and demand numbers (based on the NFL.com assessment) are as follows:

•  Pos(ition) - The player position group.
• Supply - The number of players at this position in the aggregate Top 160 players.
• Demand - The number of players required to fulfill every teams listed "need" per NFL.com.
• Surplus/ -Shortage - Indicates the percentage in excess (positive) or shortage (negative) of available Top 160 players to fulfill those needs. 
• ADP - The average draft position of the player position based on an aggregation of the ranking sources used.

Critical Positions - The Critical Positions this year are Tight End (10 available in the Top 150 but total team need total is 15 for a shortfall of 33%), Defensive Line (which was separate from "Edge" on all sources for consistency), Linebacker and Offensive Line (to eliminate the question of player's OL position in the NFL, all OL positions were consolidated to ensure consistency). 

Let's take a look at who is safe and who is screwed for this draft.

Sitting Pretty

Criticality is calculated based on a function of the number of critical positions required for each team in relation to their overall needs and the number of picks that team has in the Top 160.  For reference, the lower the score the better (meaning the team doesn't have much risk at missing out on a Critical Position);  the maximum Criticality score is 500% (in the case a team's top five needs are all Critical Positions and the team only has 1 draft pick) - for this draft the worst score is 107%.

The four teams above have the lowest Criticality scores (each was greater than one standard deviation above the mean) which means they will really have to try hard to screw up this draft.  Remember that here, ADP means the average draft positions of the team's picks through the first 160 selections. 

• Washington has the lowest Criticality score of 2.7%.  They have 5 draft picks in the Top 160 to fill just one at risk position, Offensive Line which is the least critical at -4% overall.  Of their top 5 needs, OL is fourth so they are not at dire straits to add the position.  Given they have the 12th lowest ADP at 77.2, they should not worry about meeting there draft needs. 
• Although Chicago has the 2nd lowest average draft position for their 2 selections (average pick is 106.5 within the first 160 picks), the only critical position is Tight End which is fourth in terms of priority.  

Looking Good

Half of the teams in the league (16) are set up pretty well for the upcoming draft (Criticality within 1 standard deviation above the mean).

• San Francisco is in good shape with low criticality driven by the need for only two critical positions, Defensive Line and Offensive Line (their fourth and fifth most critical needs) and four top 160 picks.   Their situation is further enhanced by having the lowest ADP ranked at #1.
• My New York Jets are in an envious position with criticality of 20%; the NFL pins OL (second critical need) and Tight End (fourth critical need; which I disagree, but that's another battle) on them but their 4 picks in the first 160 and seventh best ADP reduces the urgency.  It will be interesting if they trade back for more picks as has been discussed in the media, but clearly, they have enough draft capital to meet their needs if they stand pat. 
• Cleveland continues to enjoy an embarrassment of riches, still having 5 picks in the top 160 selections after sending their 1st round pick to the Giants for Odell. Critical Positions include both sides of the Line and Linebacker, which are 3rd, 4th and 5th, in priority so, despite the highest ADP of the draft (at this point; recall, trades could change the team ADP), the Browns have a chance to fill their biggest needs.

Livin' on a Prayer

Each team in this category is looking to fill 3 Critical Positions so the climb will be a bit more challenging.  

• Arizona has been rumored to be thinking of trading last year's franchise QB selection  and picking up a certain 2 sport star first overall but a quick review of their situation shows they have need at 3 of the 4 Critical Positions and 5 selections in the top 160 picks.  Going QB might leave them at a disadvantage to pick up key players at positions of need that are already going to be thin.
• Kansas City and the Los Angeles teams are copying each other, with equal Criticality scores with need of DL, OL and LB.  The Chiefs are in the best shape with the lower ADP of 61.3 over the first 160 picks (4th overall).

Ruh-Roh!

• Minnesota has Critical needs at Defensive Line, Offensive Line and Tight End and they are the first team in the group that is more than one standard deviation below average.
• The remaining two have need at all four Critical Positions, however, Cincinnati is in the worse position as Linebacker is its priority need which is in shorter supply compared to the OL help needed most by Denver. 

This is For My Homiez

For those of you keeping track at home, you should have figured out which team has the most ground to make up regarding addressing their draft needs...which team looks to be getting screwed this upcoming NFL Draft.  Well, here they are:

The New Orleans Saints have the worst situation in they have need at two Critical Positions (Offensive Line and Linebacker) but they only have one pick in the first 160.  That pick in a potentially advantageous trade position at #62, but not sure they can get enough value to ensure they get decent players especially given their need is at already thin positions.  Perhaps best to just sit tight, take the player that falls to them and then roll the dice the rest of the way.

Check me out during Draft Weekend

Last year, I reviewed the second and third days of the draft to determine if the teams with unaddressed needs had any shot at filling those based on remaining players at each day's end.  I plan on doing the same exercise this year so keep an eye out for Day 2 and Day 3 updates on who is more or less screwed in the draft based on their needs and the available player pool.