NFL Draft 2019: Who's Screwed? Part II - End of Day 1

Day One in the Books!

Another exciting NFL Draft kicked off and we will review how the selections impacted teams for better or worse.

A few days ago, I posted this year's "Who's Screwed? Part 1" (you can read it here).  As promised, here is the update article.

•  Pos(ition) - The player position group.
• Supply - The number of top players at this position available.
• Demand - The number of players required to fulfill every teams top 5 listed "needs" per NFL.com.
• Surplus/ -Shortage - Indicates the percentage in excess (positive) or shortage (negative) of available Top players to fulfill those needs. 
• ADP - The average draft position of the player position based on an aggregation of the ranking sources used.

The Post Day One info (left) compared to Pre-Draft (right) reveals a few things about the shift in "Critical Positions" where demand is greater than supply. 

• While shortages remained at DL, TE, LB and OL after day one, we now see a shortage in Corners also.
• As would be expected the perceived quality of the remaining players ( represented by ADP) has eroded as top players were taken off the board today.
• The quality of DL remaining plummeted as some of the draft's highest regarded players selected where in this category.
• There has been little run of in the CB group which represents the parity in the group. 

Got it...Now, Who is Screwed?

Criticality is calculated based on a function of the number of critical positions required for each team in relation to their overall needs and the number of picks that team has in the Top 160.  For reference, the lower the score the better (meaning the team doesn't have much risk at missing out on a Critical Position);  the maximum Criticality score is 500% (in the case a team's top five needs are all Critical Positions and the team only has 1 draft pick) - for this draft the worst score worsened to 200% as one team has 3 high priority critical needs but only 1 pick in the first 160 picks.

Here is a table of the changes in Criticality at the end of Day .

• NYG moved from 4th to 1st by addressing most of their critical needs tonight (whether or not they got good deals is another article). 
• NO remained in the cellar since they have 3 Critical Positions to fill and, with no picks until Round 2, they could only watch as quality players came off the board.
•  The average criticality score is around 37% so there were only a third of all teams below that line. 
•  Teams with the most dramatic changes:
• Atlanta and Minnesota both improved 11 places (pre-draft criticality vs post Round 1)  as they each addressed their most pressing critical needs.
• Oakland, although having 3 first round picks did not address any position of critical need and even added one with the CB position going critical after Day 1. 
• Arizona picked up another first round QB which was obviously not a need so they lost ground as they still have four critical needs with just 4 quality picks remaining. 

Check back after Day 2 ends to see who is really going to be screwed for the final day of he draft!

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