NFL Draft 2019 - Who's Screwed Going into the Final Day

Almost Home!

Can't believe after a year of painstakingly watching games and analyzing players, the final day of the NFL Player Draft is upon us.  And while we have had 3 rounds of drama, this day is framing up to be one of the most exciting final days in NFL Draft history with so many familiar names still uncalled.

But before the first selection is announced on this final day, let's review which teams have the most urgent needs and who, if anyone, is relatively screwed.  

How Do You Measure Screwedness?

Over the last two days, we've tracked who's screwed through a factor called "Criticality".  For the sake of time, the method is discussed here (Who's Screwed - Article 1).

Briefly, by compiling the 5 top position needs for each team (as assessed by www.NFL.com) and comparing those Top 160 needs (32 teams times 5 needs each)  to the top 160 players (taken from the average of several professional, publicly distributed big boards) we develop a factor to gauge how likely a team is to fulfill their needs based on the forces of supply and demand in the NFL Draft.  The best score is 0% meaning you have filled all your needs within the first 160 picks and the worst calculable score is 500%.  Any score over 100% means the team is likely to miss out of a serviceable player to fill a need.  Each evening after the draft, I have recalculated the positions of need (Critical Positions) where demand outstrips supply to find out which teams are likely to be shut out.  This is fixed against the back drop of the top 160 players (through late 5th round) at which point player potential is arguably not as strong from that point on. 

Let's Get Into It!

Supply and Demand

Below shows the supply and demand for (from left to right) Post Day 2 (after rounds 2 and 3), Post Day One (after round 1) and Pre-draft.

•  Pos(ition) - The player position group.
• Supply - The number of players at this position in the aggregate Top 160 players.
• Demand - The number of players required to fulfill every teams listed "need" per NFL.com.
• Surplus/ -Shortage - Indicates the percentage in excess (positive) or shortage (negative) of available Top 160 players to fulfill those needs. 
• ADP - The average draft position of the player position based on an aggregation of the ranking sources used.

Critical Positions - These are positions where demand is greater than supply.  Based on the data sources, here ar e the Critical Positions going into the final day of the draft.  Remember this is based on the first 160 picks less the picks from prior days. 

• Tight End: 57% shortfall (that, is, 4 teams will have to reach for  players projected below of the talent range for their pick).
• Defensive Line: 36% shortfall 
• Cornerback: 33% shortfall
• Safety: 22% shortfall
• Linebacker:  9% shortfall

From the "Come and Git It" bin is QB (over 200% more available in the top 160 than we need), RB, OL and WR.  Edge is even so if a team without a need reaches for one, someone will likely get screwed for that position.

Who's Screwed

 The Criticality factor for each team was calculated and grouped as follows:

All draft needs are done, the GM and  owner are happy and you are about to conduct the rest of the draft from first class as you head home early - your remaining colleagues have your cell number.  Hey, that's why you pay the assistants!

• These guys came and walked away with all position needs addressed. 
• Jacksonville and the Giants even have some extra luxury picks to make in the top 160!  
• The Giants were number one overall yesterday in terms of criticality and remain unchanged at the top spot. 
• Regardless of how you view their drafts these teams executed their plans with room to spare.  

The draft went smoothly so you have just one really low priority need left and you have the requite firepower to pull it off. Any idiot can follow the big board at this point so it's all about catching up on some sleep.  You've earned it. 

• Washington has an ultra low 2.22% criticality and, although they have a remaining Average Draft Pick at 132. and the ADP of their need is around 100, they with 3 picks in the top 160 remaining to snag their cornerback and fill all needs. 

Not going to lie, there were a couple of curveballs this draft you might not have been expecting, either good or bad.  You have a couple of needs to fill, maybe higher priority than you would like, but you have just enough picks left to get the job done.  Send out the intern for Starbucks and so you make sure you stay alert.

• Lots of teams on this list.  The could wrap up their needs and use later picks for projects and reaches so they will need to read the draft right so they don't fall short. 
• Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are in great shape with low priority needs.  
• Cincinnati made up some group yesterday filling needs and moved up 18 slots to put themselves in a great position to pick up a mid priority DL with 3 picks to go.  
• Chicago, Cleveland and the Chargers are up against it.  If they make one false move, they may have to scramble. 

Yeah, you should have had a better plan going into this thing.  It seemed like every other draft but somehow, you got a bit off kilter and know you have to make sure you can try to salvage this thing anyway you can. 

• These teams either have just enough picks for their several priority needs or they have more lower priority needs than they have remaining Top 160 draft picks.
• New Orleans was dead last at the end of Day Two but has at least put themselves in position to exit the top 160 picks with their top 3 needs met. 
• New England obviously is a best available drafter because going into Day 3, their top two priority picks (TE and DL) remain unaddressed. 
• The Jets are in the group but the NFL considers TE as a priority position...as a fan, I have no idea how that is possible but, for the sake of fairness, I did not adjust the score  based on my belief their adjusted score would be much lower. 
• It bears noting that the Jets are the only team with their ADP lower than their Need ADP which should help them snag a serviceable corner early.

Maybe you've been in this game too long.  Or not long enough.  Anyway, the plan looked great back at the campus but the wheels fell off sometime after dinner Tuesday when the staff checked out the host city.  Or maybe it was the liquid lunch on Thursday. At this point it's time to start figuring out who will be the fall guy on this debacle.  

• These guys are under the gun with Criticality scores since 100% means you have a high priority that will likely not get picked up because you have too few picks.  
• Both San Francisco and Philadelphia have one remaining pick in the Top 160, however, those picks are all high priority.
• Philly fell off the cliff after ending Day 2 in 9th place and is not the last team that isn't fully screwed.  Which brings us to...

You figured the draft would come to you.  Don't over think it and use our instincts, you told your staff.  Unfortunately, your instincts stunk this week. Yes, you're officially screwed. 

• Although the worst Critcality score that can be calculated is 500%, the designation 501% means they are screwed because they have no picks with needs multiple needs remaining. 
  
• Kansas City has some huge problems to deal this week that are more important than sports, but the dominos didn't fall the way they needed to pick up their top 5 needs in the top 160.  
• Both teams had 2 remaining needs (each with a #2 priority unfulfilled) and no picks remaining in the top 160, so it will be about finding diamonds in the late rounds and UDFA.  Lots of luck fellas. 

Thanks for checking this out and please provide any feedback of questions, below. 

Draft Wrap Up

Follow this space for a wrap up of the entire draft AND the all social media Top 100 draft prospects in a Big Board for the People by the People, all over the weekend.