Wrapping up the 3 Part Series
During the 2019 NFL Draft, we
tracked each teams’ progress toward picking up players at positions of
need. That’s not such a big deal,
right? Until you start tracking the
impact of each player coming off the board before your pick on your ability to meet your
teams’ needs. In the first round, five DE’s
flew off the boards…how did that impact the overall supply for the teams who
waiting in line desperate of pressure off the EDGE? Were there enough “quality” DE’s to ensure
each team with need got their guy?
We left our pre-Day 3 analysis
without reconciliation of how teams in peril of not filling needs ended up at
the end of the draft. Today, we
determine conclusively, who’s screwed going into the 2019 season.
MethodologyIn summary, we took each NFL team’s top 5 draft needs (ranked from 5 for greatest to 1 least critical) and counted the total number of each position in the top 160 players.
So, if there was a need for 15 cornerbacks and we counted 10 in the top 160 prospects, the position would be considered a “Critical Position” because there is a 50% deficit of talent to fill the needs. (For detail on the methodology, please follow this link.)
Hit the Phones
These teams either had just enough picks remaining to secure quality prospects for their several Critical Priority needs or their needs were not that urgent.
ATL: Began Day 3
with Critical Priority Needs at DL (5), CB (3) and LB (2)
Result: 2 out of 3
The Birds used their first pick of Day 3 to address CB depth
with Kendell Sheffield of OSU to provide support for Desmond Trufant and Isaiah
Oliver. They then went on to meet their “most
critical need” (rated a number “5”) at DL in the form of 6’4” 286 lbs John
Cominsky at #135; he has been wreaking havoc at Charleston for the last few years. He
immediately adds to an already stout DL rotation. While I like the Cominsky pick, the team
decided not to draft a LB which is not dire since it was a low priority
position. Can’t say I know their backers,
but the DLine and defensive backend are both pretty solid.
DAL: Critical Priority
Needs: S (4) and TE (3)
Result: 1 out of 2
While the team picked up two members of The Jacksons
(including Papa Joe, one of my sleepers) before addressing the need at safety,
they waited until # 213 in the 6th to grab Donovan Wilson (formerly
of TAMU), the 11th safety picked that day. Definitely outside the window of the Top 160
players from our 3 sources, but in this exercise, we just check to see if they address the need before the Top 160, not if they actually pick one from our list of Top 160 players. Evidently, in Witten they trust
because the team didn’t draft any TE despite the pretty obvious need.
NE: Critical Priority Needs: TE (5), DL (4) and S (2)
Results: 1 out of
3
Always the “Get off my lawn” guy of the league, the Pats
don’t surprise by refusing to take a TE this draft despite the position being
listed as their top priority. Veteran TEs Ben Watson and Austin
Seferian-Jenkins will have to hold down the fort this year for the Pats. When it was
time to go DL, NE used their 3rd pick of the day to grab Bryon
Cowart of Maryland at #159 overall.
This is so Patriot-esque. They took the former top #1 recruit in all of
HS football who underperformed mightily in college and was long forgotten by the
mainstream. This is a classic Patriots
move; he is all but assured a bust in Canton after Belichik works his mojo on
him. While they picked the need position
within the top 160 spots, Cowart was not considered a Top 160 player. And, for
their final need of safety they just ignored the position. Hey, who needs
safeties anyway? Especially with
McCourty in the last year of a large contract – what’s the problem? But that’s the Pats. They make moves like this and still win, so…
NO: Critical Priority Needs: LB (3) and CB (2)
Results: 1 out of
2
First off, the Saints went into Day 3 with not a lot of
firepower in terms of draft capital.
However, when you look at their depth chart, there are not a whole lot
of pressing needs for the team.
Regardless, they made a couple of trades and, as a result, they added LB
depth through Idaho’s Kaden Elliss, whose dad was a 2x Pro Bowler; they didn't feel a lot of pressure as they
got him way outside the Top 160 picks (#244). Depth at CB was not a front office concern as the team
didn’t draft any corners.
NYJ: Critical Priority Needs: CB (3) and TE (2)
Results: 2 out of
2
While I was not convinced the need was there, the Jets
agreed with the league by picking up a TE in the 4th round at #121
overall, Trevon Wesco from West Virginia, making him their 6th TE on
roster (currently trimmed down to 5). At #196, they fulfilled their CB need
with Blessuan Austin from Rutgers who has a history of injuries and has missed
significant time over his college career; the NYJ doctors evidently gave him
the all clear. While there were several CBs drafted after #196 who are capable
of participating Day 1, that the Jets GM was fired post draft, shows me their
draft can be entirely tossed out in terms of grading.
Start Pointing Fingers
These guys were under the gun with Criticality scores > 100% which means at least one high
priority need will likely not get picked because a team has too few picks.
PHI: Critical Priority Needs: LB (5), S (3) and CB (2)
Results: 0 out of 3
The Eagles couldn’t care less about our little project…Linebacker? No thanks.
Safety? Defiant still, they
reject the notion of drafting a safety. The
CB cupboard seems stocked right now but there are 4 CBs going into free agency
in 2020 and the Eagles salary cap situation looks pretty rough for next year so
bringing on a rookie CB to groom would have provided flexibility.
SF: Critical Priority Needs: S (4), CB (3) and DL (2)
Results: 0 for 3
I’m not going to lie, it looks like the Niners have put
together a nice roster based on the current depth chart but I don’t know if you
start out the day picking a punter. He
may be All-World but they likely could have traded back and still gotten him. Regarding safeties, they only have 2 coming
up for free agency in 2020, so they decided to stand “pat” on their top “priority”
position. They also would not be bullied
into rushing to pick a CB, what with Richard Sherman added to the squad to
complement Ahkello Witherspoon, so they waited until #198, their last pick of
the day to call in Tim Harris out of Virginia. Given neither of their backup
DTs participated in more than 25% of the defensive snaps, I can see why perhaps
they wanted to increase depth with another guy in the rotation, but they stood
pat here, again. We will see how this
all fares for the Niners in 2019.
Polish up the Resume
Although the worst Criticality score that can be
calculated is 500%, these teams have been assigned a score of 501% which means
they were screwed because they have no remaining quality picks (top 160) with needs
multiple needs remaining.
KC: Critical Priority Needs: LB (4) and CB (3)
Results: 1 out of
2
It all started with the decision to use their 3 top 84
picks on WR and S (both had a surplus of acceptable prospects at the time and selection
of these positions could have been delayed) and DT, the latter being a timely pickup
since the shortage at this position was its worst at the beginning of Day
2. They struck for a CB with the 201st
pick in Rashad Fenton (GO COCKY!!!) so while they didn’t get one of the top
propects at CB, they filled the need with a solid player. Although they chose not to look at LB, now
that we know they had an offer on the table for former 1st round
pick Darron Lee (recently traded from the Jets), it makes sense they took no
action. Looks like it turned out for
them after all.
LAR: Critical Priority Needs: DL (4) and LB (1)
Results: 1 out of
2
So long, Suh and that means Donald and Tanzel Smart (who
sat nearly all of 2018 behind Suh) needed some help in the depth department at
DT, a position with a critical deficiency of quality players to draft. After several trades with the Patriots (please see below), they took
a liking to Greg Gaines and got him within the first 160 picks at 134. They took the 243 pick (also from NE) and
picked up LB Dakota Allen, the last backer picked in 2019.
Wrap
up: While many teams filled their
priority spots, several were not able to address those we deemed critical due
to lack of top tier talent to fill those needs.
If a team was not able to address their critical positions within the
first 160 picks, we worry about talent quality at a position of need. But we will have to wait until the end of the
upcoming season to see which teams got it right and which teams should have
pulled the trigger faster. The wins and
losses are the ultimate validator of who is a contender and who is a pretender.
Bonus commentary: What is up with the Rams and Patriots trades?
These two teams pulled off 3 trades on draft day:
- Pats get #45; Rams get #56 and #101
- Pats get #101 (!) and #133; Rams get #97 and #162
- Pats get #162 (!) and #167 ; Rams get #134 and #243
The exclamation points indicate some Looney Toons stuff going on here. Did the Rams just send back 2 of the picks they got from the Pats, thereby negating the impact of those selections on the overall outcome?
Let's cross multiply:
- Pats get #45; Rams get #56
- Pats get #133; Rams get #97
- Pats get #167; Rams get #134 and #243
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