A Look at the Impact of 2018 NFL Quarterback Aggressiveness on Win %

Bond, James Bond

Who doesn't love the classic James Bond gambling scene? You know the one where he's playing some high-class European casino game we don't understand and his opponent (usually wearing a fez, an eyepatch or both) gets at our boy with a power move only to have 007 slap the taste out of his mouth with some mathematically improbable win.  

"Shoot.  Left my lucky fez at home tonight..."

While most of you were likely trying to figure out what the heck just happened, I would sit fascinated at the nerve required to go forward even when the odds were staggeringly against you.  

Let's take a look at quarterback aggressiveness in the NFL and how that impacts winning percentage.

In the Mix

So, how do we begin?

• First, I took the NFL NextGen Stats for QB Aggressiveness for the last 3 seasons (2016 - 2018).
• Aggressiveness is measured as the percentage of passing attempts a QB makes that are into tight coverage defined as a throw where  a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.  The lower the number, the less aggressive the QB play.
• "Avg Aggr" represents the Average Aggressiveness over the last 3 years. 
• All stats are ranked for each particular season year and distributed based on the average score representing a 75% grade and the top grade is an automatic 100%.  This provides the "Agg Grade".
• Next, I conducted the same compilation for NFL Passer Rating per https://www.pro-football-reference.com/  with "Avg Psr Rating" and "Avg Psr Rating Grade" included in the table below.
• Players who are not currently active in the league or projected not to be relevant in 2019 (based on my opinion) are excluded. 
• Finally, I compare each Grade to the average and combine them for each player to get a "Risk/Reward" Measure.
• This measure presents a relative score with zero representing the average with the higher the score, the more acceptable the risk the QB takes for the reward.  

Let's take a look:

Comments

• Avg Aggressiveness over the 3 season period ranged from 12.4% of all Patrick Mahomes passes within 1 yard of a defender, all the way up to 21.6% of such passes for Josh Rosen.
• Mahomes is famous for no-look passes and plays that make the weekly highlights but in actuality, he is the least aggressive QB in the league based on our parameters.
• Keep in mind as you review the list, this analysis will not look at drivers of these metrics such as:
• Aggregate receiver skill one QB may enjoy vs another with lower-skilled options.  
• Potentially more favorable offensive scheme.  
• "Gunslinger" QB mentality vs. more naturally conservative QBs.
• The AGG Grade reflects average grade over each of the last 3 seasons.  Tyrod Taylor has a lower Avg Aggr than Mahomes but has a higher AGG Grade...how?  Mahomes was third in terms of Avg Aggr his singular year in the analysis while Tyrod's average over the 3 year period was better - he gained ground in the years Mahomes was not starting.  Remember, we are looking at each season in a vacuum.
• From an Avg Passer Rating standpoint, Cam Newton is above average, however, his AGG Grade is in the lower tier. In this case, his Risk Reward reflects a negative score.

Must have seen some of his past outfit choices...

• That's not to say a guy can't be Aggressive and have success...Look at Matt Ryan's Avg AGG which is on the "More Aggressive" end of the spectrum, however, he has a top tier Avg Psr Rating.
• Josh Allen is one of the most conservative QBs in terms of his AGG Grade but because of his Avg Passer Rating Grade is the 2nd lowest in the study - as such, his Risk/Reward is negative 19.7. 
• At the end of the day, Mahomes has the highest Risk/Reward score which I read as, for his level of risk (low) and his level of output (higher, in terms of Passer Rating), he is optimizing his risk management nearly 50% better than the rest of the league.
• On the other end of the spectrum, Josh Rosen's rookie year saw him take the most chances (at almost double the rate of Mahomes) resulting in the worst passer rating of the group.  His overall risk management was over 50% worse than the field.  Let's hope he has better days in Miami but, at this point, that seems questionable.

Confession, I am a huge Rosen fan...

What's the Bottom Line?

Regardless of risk, the bottom line is wins. If a guy can take calculated risks and still win you a championship (like Eli Manning with his Risk Reward score of - 15.5%), you would take him every day.  So, does a higher Risk/Reward performance ratio mean a higher QB win percentage, based on data over the last 3 seasons?

Based on the above, when comparing Risk/ Reward to QB Win Percentage, there is a 51.3% correlation between the two which is enough to confirm at least a moderate relationship. 

Looking forward to updating this table at the end of the regular season!

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Want to read more?  How many games will your team win this year?  Check out my analysis here and get po'ed!

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