The Initial 2019 FBS Wide Receiver Efficiency Ranking

Fifth Season of Return on Investment!

Those of you who have followed this space from the beginning understand I am obsessed with value. The top/concensus picks are "easy" to determine but you have to fill out a 53 man roster. Return on Investment has become a great way to screen out overlooked NFL wide receiver prospects who may become solid contributors. Since inception, this space has highlighted the following players (among others):

• 2016 Draft:  Will Fuller, Rashard Higgins and Trevor Davis
• 2017 Draft:   Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuester, Kenny Golladay and Josh Reynolds.
• 2018 Draft:  DJ Moore, Keith Kirkwood, Tre'Quan Smith and James Washington
• 2019 Draft:  Keesean Johnson, Travis Fulgham, and Damion Willis.

Of the names of highly efficient receivers (who provide more return on investment of targets than their peers) you will find names you knew pre-draft like Fuller and Smith-Schuster, but the essence of ROI is finding guys lost in the shuffle.

Return on Investment (ROI) began nearly 5 years ago in an attempt to try and identify draft eligible wide receivers who may have huge potential, but were not part of any hype machine that would make them household names.  After a natural evolutionary process, this current version of ROI has been in place 4 years and has revealed players you may not hear about until you see their names scroll across the screen on draft day. 

Each week through the season the top ROI receivers will be presented based with frequent updating of FCS, DII and DIII players.

So, what goes into ROI?

1. Player target, reception and receiving yard statistics for the top 150 receivers in terms of receiving yards are analyzed on a peer basis.
2. The three "raw" ROI metrics resulting from these analyses are combined to provide an aggregate ROI number.
3. Each player's aggregate ROI number is compared to the average to present how much better or worse than average he is; this is the ROI number discussed below.
4. Any player with total receptions at least 1 standard deviation within average or better qualifies for inclusion in the final list (this is the Sammy Coates Rule to screen out players who may have better results because they are used as deep threats only).

Touchdowns are not included in ROI because there are many factors beyond a receivers skill level that could result in a score.  However, a metric comparing a player's receptions/TD rate to that of the rest of his team is included to give an idea of how much the player impacts the team in terms of scoring. This "TD Rate" compares performance to each players teammates, not directly to each other. 

• ROI is NOT a leading indicator! I would not just take the list and start ranking players based on ROI %. The method is best used in screening out WRs for further film work to find guys like Kirkwood who took 21.4% of all offensive snaps in NO last year and Reynolds who came in for an injured Kupp (also high ROI) to keep the Rams' Superbowl bid on track without missing a beat to play 55% of team snaps with 5 TDs.
• For the first few weeks, we will include all receivers regardless of class. 
• As we get closer to Bowl season you will see only seniors and underclassmen we are pretty sure will declare. 
• The above data is simple  ROI, that is, the target information is not yet included primarily because final ROI is a fairly labor intensive process (which includes omitting all non-WR data from team aggregate statistics and target data can be hard to come by).
• Simple ROI is a good indicator, but the final ROI list and the weekly presentations may look different.
• In the future, we may break up the top 20 into Power 5 and non-Power 5 for a more "apples to apples" presentation but more on that at a later date.

Yellow indicates within 1 standard deviation above the mean; green indicates between 1 and 2 standard deviations above the mean.

Comments:

•  Clemson is WRU - Junior Tee Higgins could be overlooked given the competition over at another SEC school, but this two-time Mr. Football for the state of Tennessee has the size, speed and now, the efficiency to make an immediate impact in the NFL.   Some outlets have him as potentially WR5 in the upcoming draft but we'll see if he can elevate his standing with a solid 2019.
• You Down With AGG? - The top senior in this initial list is Antonio Gandy-Golden of Liberty University, the newest member of the FBS.  Dude was named Offensive Player of the Year for his high school team as a SOPHOMORE...you're not even supposed to be on varsity as a sophomore let alone be the best player. No surprise he has been a contributor all four years for the Flames with a nice 6/119 performance against then #22 Syracuse this season.
• Hello, Again - Bryan Edwards is the only player from last year's list to make the opening Top 20.  He was more efficient than former teammate and current 49'er Deebo Samuel last year and with a new QB showing promise, Edwards could end up on more radar screens before all is said and done.
• Runs in the Family - JD Spielman, adopted son of Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman and nephew of NFL great Chris Spielman, has been around football his entire life and it shows.  A HS running back, he can provide a spark after the catch.  The Huskers are not known as a pass heavy school but with his ability as a receiver AND a return man, Spielman will get a lot of looks for his versatility whether he declares early this year or utilizes his full eligibility. 

That's the first listing as of Week 4 for FBS.  Check back for the Week 5 update along with high ROI players on the FCS, DII and DIII radars!


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After the first round, where have the best EDGE players been found?  It's not the 2nd round, I'll tell you that.  Check out the full story here!