It's What's Upfront that Counts
Offensive line...it's a mystery even to many who consider themselves football fans. While they often go unnoticed, no one can deny they are one of the most vital factors deciding winning or losing.
This article will take a look at two items, the rate at which QBs endure contact on a play and the Time to Throw for each starting QB. There is no hypothesis, that is, I'm not trying to prove anything. I am just very curious about what the numbers might tell us.
The Measures
Quick on the Draw...
Time to Throw (or TTT) is an NFL Next Gen statistic that measures the average time from snapping of the ball to release (excludes sacks). This is measured with sensors on the ball and on players...hoping this will lead to more precise measurements for contesting downs instead of two guys running around with two inverted exclamation points chained together. But, I digress.Crunch Time
We will look the total number of offensive plays for each team through Week 5 divided by their aggregate number of sacks and QB Hits given up by their Offensive Line. I've previously shown there is a positive correlation between the number of wins for a team and the number of QB Hits and Sacks a team's defense lays on an opposing QB (please see the original article HERE).
The table is sorted by Time to Throw (TTT) with Minnesota QB Cousins taking the most time on average to throw (3.07 seconds, compared to the average of 2.73 seconds). On the other side of the spectrum, SF QB Garoppalo had the quickest release, getting rid of the ball in 2.45 seconds on average.
So what does this mean? I've tried to place it into context here by giving each measure a score based on the typical school grading system with 75% equating to the survey average. The top performer was given 100% and all other grades were based on their relationship to the top team and the mean.
Then, I subtracted the TTT score from the QB Contact Score to get the Difference (Diff) between the two.
Recall the color key:
Sorted by "Diff", we notice the following:
- San Francisco has the largest differential between TTT and QB Contact at -42.9%. So, while the QB has the third lowest chance of being sacked or hit, he gets the ball out quicker than anyone in the league. So, is he hit so infrequently because of his line's stellar protection? Or is it he gets the ball out because the first read is always "open" (or he forces it in).
- SF "Jumps the Mean" in that it has one measure above the mean and another below. Half of the teams fall in this category (8 above the mean, 8 below) where their extreme measures need further examination.
- IND is the first team to have both measures on the same side of the mean meaning Brissett has not been knocked down a lot and also can extend plays or sit in the pocket behind his OL's protection evidenced by his above average TTT.
- Pittsburgh's rating is based on Rudolph's measures and he clearly benefits from a stellar OL since he is hit/sacked the least has time to throw within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
Looking further down the table as the number gets positive, the TTT scores are higher than QB Contact ratings giving us positive 'Diff".
- Minnesota's Cousins has the most time to throw AND doesn't get hit a whole lot since his OL's rate of QB Hits+Sacks/Total Plays is over 1 Standard deviation from the mean.
- The first team to "Jump the Mean" on this side is Cleveland: Mayfield has a lot of time to throw but he is hit a lot...Is this indicative of "guts" to hang in the pocket and let plays develop, or is he slow to process what he sees? Smarter guys than me need to get on this and explain.
- Although NY Jets' Falk had Crazy Glue on his hand last week and couldn't get rid of the ball, on plays where he did not get sacked his TTT was below the mean...he had no issue there. If his coaching staff had worked with him on those plays that lead to sacks, recognizing it was due to his uncertainty on key plays, they might not have cut him.
Blutarsky or 0.0 - Both KC and ARI hover around the 0% differential with KC 1 above on TTT and QBH/Sack rate and ARI one below.
Conclusion
Any conclusion, to me, is inconclusive in terms of establishing any trends. Brady gets the ball out quickly (2.56 seconds) but Flacco has the same TTT. Are they equal QBs? That would be a stretch. Also, Dalton's release is even quicker than Brady but do you think the Patriots are looking to swap QBs with the Bengals? And what about Aaron Rogers? He gets the ball out a lot later than Brady, but they are in the same range when it comes to QB Contact.If anything can be gathered, I think it is understanding that if your OL does not give up a lot of hits/sacks but your QB is getting the ball out quickly, is that what you want? Should your coaches be asking if the QB is going through his progressions or does he not understand the opposition's defense and just goes to his first option?
It will be interesting to see how these numbers shift as the season progresses.
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