Half Way Point
The 2019 NFL season is turning the corner as teams prepare for their Week 9 games which means we are kicking off the second half of the season. Based on team performance in the first half of the season here are the 2nd half forecasts for each team followed by a prediction of the final standings. Here we go!Through Week 8
Along with the actual wins (W), losses (L), ties (T) and win percentage (%) headings, we added:- Rank - The Team rank based on win percentage.
- SoS Rank - Strength of Schedule Rank is based on actual peer performance comparison through Week 8; 1 is the easiest schedule and 32, the hardest.
- %OP/UP - Percentage Overperformance (positive) /Underperformance (negative) reflects if the team performed better or worse than expected given the competition.
- NO was 13th in terms of strength of schedule and is ranked 3rd in terms of win %, representing 30% overperformance (and that is with their starting QB out for several weeks).
- The only two teams with better win percentages, NE and SF, had much easier going with the 1st and 2nd easiest schedules, respectively.
- On the flip side, DAL has the 3rd easiest schedule and is the 13th overall team in terms of win % so, you guessed it, they underperformed by 30%.
- The teams performing exactly as they should given the competition are NE, NYG, TB and MIN.
Looking Forward
Using the performance of teams for the first half, I projected the wins for the rest of the 2019 Season. Win and losses are predicted based on a comparative model. Ties were not included in the simulation.
Variance indicates the change between 2nd half win percentage and that for the 1st half for each team.
- OAK will see win percentage drop .313 compared to the 1st half of the year. Even though their strength of schedule got easier (from 25th to 7th) the average schedule for all teams should get easier going forward.
- CIN is projected to see the best improvement compared to 1st half by 0.375 (their win rate is 0.00) as they pull out 3 wins driven by the 5th easiest schedule of the 2nd half.
- Teams projected to duplicate their 1st half performances with the exact same record are both LA teams LAC and LAR, NE, NO and PHI.
- MIN is expected to be the juggernaut of the league going 8-0 the second half with the 25th toughest schedule.
- My NYJ will have the "weakest" opposition but, based on how they've played thus far, the model has them winning only two games, sweeping MIA in the division home and home.
Final Tally
When you look at the actual 1st half and my projected 2nd half:
- Contenders: Teams with 1st half success, NE, SF, NO, MIN and GB continue their winning ways.
- Pretenders: MIA is joined by ATL at the bottom of the rankings with NYJ, CIN and WAS rounding out the list.
- Against All Odds: KC has the 2nd toughest schedule and is projected to finish 7th overall. This projection has not taken into account the impact of the Mahomes injury.
- Better Luck Next Year: With the toughest schedule, ATL finishes about where we would expect, at #31 overall. Hard to overcome tough scheduling like that.
- In Search of Perfection: Two teams are undefeated at the halfway mark, but the projection has NE the only one remaining unblemished at the end of the regular season. SF is projected to fall to GB is Week 12 ending their run at perfection.
- Virgins, No More: No team is projected to finish without a win with MIA expected to get the win vs. CLE in Week 12 and CIN over PIT that same week.
Final Standings: AFC
NFC
Thoughts? Please leave a comment below. Check back at the end of the year to see how this forecast compared to real life.
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Join me for a look at Offensive Line performance here.
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