Big Debut for Big Joe
Each Spring for the past 5 years, Jets fans have loaded up on Tums while watching the NFL draft. This year, many fans just didn't know what to expect with first-time GM Joe Douglas running the player selection. As VP of Player Personnel across the river in Philadelphia, he had the following draft history:
- 2016: Carson Wentz fell in his lap; few other players from that draft have been meaningful contributors over the last 5 years.
- 2017: Top pick Derek Barnett missed a lot of time due to injury but contributed in 2019; the other top picks are struggling for snaps.
- 2018: Second round pickup Dallas Goedert became South Dakota State's highest drafted player but supplanting Ertz as TE1 is a tall order. The rest of their Day 2/Early Day 3 picks struggle to get snaps.
- 2019: Still early, but OL Andre Dillard took a redshirt behind starting LT Jason Peters and WR Arcega-Whiteside only pulled down 10 of his 22 targets.
Not really crushing it by any stretch but Douglas was NOT the GM in that case so he wasn't pulling the trigger.
But, he's got the big chair now. What did we think of Big Joe's first draft?
Traded Back
The prior GM never made a lot of noise in the draft with daring trades so this year was refreshing. Making moves shows our GM is going to always keep an open mind to improving the team. Not only did he increase the number of picks from 8 to 9 but he also improved the average draft position by 7 spots.
Addressing Needs
What I've learned over the past year is that the concept of "Best Player Available" is applicable to the best player for your NEED. So you take the best guy at a need position, not necessarily the best player on the board. Seems like Joe followed this strategy to a "T" and, based on my analysis (which you can read here) , the Jets "won" the draft by filling their need positions with players graded high enough to make an impact.
- Jets addressed their five priority need within the first 160 picks, the only team to do so this draft (5 is the most pressing need, 1 the least [but still a need.]).
- Given the depth at WR and Edge in this year's prospects, Joe naturally focused his initial pick on getting one of the consensus top OT prospects, and likely the one they need to be a human wall between blindside attackers and Sam Darnold.
Finding Value
Based on NFL.com's own player grades, Joe ended up #8 overall in terms of squeezing value out of the draft over the first 160 picks.
- Based on the average draft pick over the first 160 (93.6; TB was best at 44.7) and the average player grade (6.22, DET was first at 6.42) the Jets found 15.8% more value when drafting their players compared to the average...again, this is based on NFL.com's posted player grades.
- Outside the Top 160, Big Joe still pulled in impressive value on later picks getting the 136th best graded player, the best punter in the nation in Braden Mann, at the 191 spot. That's 4th round talent in the 6th round. And this after filling all their needs.
Making Sense of "Huh?" Picks
No one but Joe knows why he did what he did during the draft but here's my thoughts on some of his not so obvious moves:
- Wait, don't we have two awesome safeties? The third selection of Ashtyn Davis was a head scratcher to some. With safety the strength of the defense, why pick another so high? Not really so high. Jets got him at 68, Kiper had him as #65 on his big board and he was graded at player #55 overall by NFL.com, so there was value there. I would expect Joe to sign Jamal Adams to a fat contract after this coming season and so they likely won't pay Maye. So they need to draft safeties over the next couple of years to ensure coverage. Davis has huge upside since he can play all over the secondary to provide even more versatility to the defense.
- Why a QB? Are they giving up on Sam? I looked at QBs this draft season and I'm pretty confident in saying James Morgan will never win a QB competition and start in the NFL. That being said I can't think of a better QB for them to pick up this past April. The QB room just got a bit better with Morgan who is an above the neck QB I expect to help Sam when it's time to install the weekly game plan. Morgan has been starting QB for two FBS programs so his exposure to different environments will be a positive for the team. He should contribute in ways we fans will never see. Let's just hope Sam stays healthy.
- I get Becton but did we need another lineman? - If you want to know the answer to that, just watch this footage of Cameron Clarke vs. Clemson. Sure, his Charlotte squad lost 52-10 but just watch #71 in the white jersey beating the stew out of national championship caliber players. I had no idea who was but he's going to be a solid pro for a long time. Sure, NYJ picked up a bunch of linemen in Free Agency but I wouldn't call them Pro Bowl caliber guys. Van Routon, Alex Lewis and Fant all have Salary Cap friendly deals where they can be cut after next year with only a ripple effect. This should add a healthy dose of competition once players are cleared to get to practice. This can only help the team. Regardless of how the business side works out, Clarke is a beast.
- A Freaking Punter?!? Ok, I get it. Many people don't follow college punters. Including me. But what I do know is the Jets did not have a lot of success in the punting game:
- Lachen Edwards had 28 punts within the 20 yard line, which put him tied at #11 overall...but when you consider his 87 punts were the most in the league, his rate of punts falling within the 20 was dead last of the 25 punters reviewed.
- When you look at the entire picture with a punting game that had nowhere to go but up, the grade Mann earned was pretty impressive for a kicker and the value the Jets got by picking him up at about a 50% value/draft capital discount, this may prove to be the biggest steal of the draft.
Dude had a forced fumble...as a punter. Whut?!
In Conclusion
I have to say I am very excited by this draft. It showed the GM is creative and well studied in player talent. It would be nice if Joe didn't have alligator arms when it comes to pitching top free agents, but I would rather miss out on an overpriced player past his prime so I can forgive that. I have seen other analysts with not as glowing reviews but you know what they say about opinions.
Can't wait to see what happens in 2020 and in the pivotal 2021 season.
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