The NFL's Virtual Draft was undeniably a huge success. Their joint effort with Four Letter Network could be just want we needed as a country to turn the corner and start looking forward to a prudent, gradual return to normalcy over the next few months.
The league had a great weekend but how about your favorite team? While you were reading some pre-draft takes about who your team should take, the cool kids were reading THIS blog to understand how the supply and demand forces were working for or against their squad. Why don't you go and catch up...we'll wait:
The Short Story
(1) NYJ were the only team to draft all their "needs" in the "sweet spot" of the draft, (2) they were joined by HOU, CLE, DET and MIN as teams to obtain all "need" positions, and (3) WAS extracted the most value out of their picks over the "sweet spot" of the draft.The Long Story
The Magic of One-Six-Oh
For those of you too lazy to go over the "Who's Screwed" series for 2020, here's a brief overview - based on NFL.Com's team needs and player grades, I tracked the selection of each team's needs over the first 160 picks. Why 160? Each team's needs were ranked from 1 (lowest priority) to 5 (highest priority) so if each team attempted to draft simply for "need" everyone would pick their guys in the first 160 picks (32 teams times 5 position needs = 160 selections). This exercise examines only player needs in "deficit positions" (see, you should have read the other articles) based on supply and demand. If there were 5 Top 160 LBs based on the NFL.com ratings and your team was one of 10 teams with LB needs, there would be a -50% rated deficit at that position, meaning half of us were not going to get a top graded LB. The number is adjusted based on the talent pool of available players.
With that foundation laid, let's take a look at:
- Which teams went about their business with a clearly "needs" based strategy given their efforts to complete draft their position needs on Day 3/pre and post pick 160 activity.
- Which teams benefited and suffered as a result of drafting "need" positions after the sweet spot of the top 160.
- Analysis of which teams got the most value out of their picks and which ones appeared to reach a bit too far.
1. What About MY Needs?!?
If you read the other blog posts, you are familiar with the table above. On the Left, are each NFL team. The next three columns, Day 1 Picks/Need, Day 2 Picks/Need and Day 3 Top 160 Picks/Need represent the positions selected by each team and what, if any, need that pick fulfilled. If the pick did not satisfy a NFL.com identified team need, than the designation was "0" as in "WR-0".
- NYJ in the first row picked an offensive tackle in the first round, satisfying their #3 need, which was considered the mid point of the urgency scale per NFL. com.
- Below them, CLE also picked an OT which was their top priority as a #5.
The second column reports the same information through Day 2. If you were a loyal follower, you would have known after the first and second days, I provided a table updating the adjusted supply and demand ranking per position which would take into account the average grade for each position based on the remaining players.
The third column lists the "need" players selected up to the 160th pick (based on the assumption detailed above) for each team. The center section titled "Post Top 160 Unfilled Needs" reflects which "need' positions were not filled; it uses the 1-5 scale to indicate priority. During the draft, "deficit needs" were tracked because if there is a short suppy of a position, it is better to get him sooner than later.
The final column, "Needs Drafted %" shows what percentage of their "need" positions each team was able to acquire in the Top 160 picks.
Comments:
- Top Gun - NYJ were the only team to fulfill all their "needs" in the top 160 sweet spot resulting in a 100% rating.
- Montagues and Capulets - The NFC North is pretty clearly not a "needs-based" drafting division, given when you're talking about GB and CHI. Both clearly ignored all perceived needs - since each picked up only their top "needs", they each scored 33%. (Top Need in this case is 5 (sum of their drafted needs) divided by all needs summed for a total of 15; 3/15= 33%)
- Comeback Kid - PHI was in pretty bad shape going into Day 3 with a pretty bleak projection grade for completing their "needs". They turned it around and ended up with an 87% completion rate.
- From the Penthouse to the Outhouse - The team I had graded out as having a "Foolproof" Day 3 draft must have come across some fools because LAC could not convert their two remaining Top 160 picks into their two lowest priority deficit "needs". They dropped all the way from 1st going into day 3 to 24th.
2. Value Proposition
Of course, the concept of the Top 160 being the sweet spot of the draft may not exist in the world of NFL GMs. For them, simply addressing as many of your needs over the course of the draft may be the goal. So looking at the entire draft, the table below depicts selections from the 161st pick to the final pick.
Post 160 Value - This is a measure calculated to determine how much value a team gained or lost on a "need" position picked after the 160th pick. To keep it simple, if you compare the grade of the player selected post 160 to the last player of the same position group selected before 160, we determine if there was value gained or lost.
For example: CIN selected OL Adeniji at #180 when interior line was a priority deficit "need" for the draft. The last OL selected before the 160th pick was found to have a rating that is 7% higher than the new Bengal. So, in waiting to draft their "need" OL after 160, they lost 7% of potential talent on that position. (Of course the opportunity value is not considered here but that is for another article. Let's keep it simple for now). Teams with blacked out sections did not draft any "needs" players after the first 160 selections.
- HOU, CLE, DET and MIN join NYJ as teams that checked off all their positional "needs" by the end of the draft. The
- NYJ is listed first because they addressed all "needs" within the Top 160 picks.
- HOU is second as they were able to generate 5% additional value on their picks despite drafting "needs" positions outside of the Top 160.
- MIN also covered 100% of its "needs" but they had some run off in value from waiting so long to pick up their final players, especially Safety which was the most depleted position going into Day 2.
- The only team to come in with less than a 50% Total Needs Drafted rating would be NE which has historically not shown signs of following any "needs" based draft.
- GB had the largest drop off in value of post 160 "needs' players drafted, losing 47% in player value by waiting so late.
- If there is a team that, in reality, didn't have a lot of urgent "needs" it is NO but they lost a lot of value waiting to take a QB near the end of the seventh round. Instead of taking a flyer on a CB they picked up a QB at 240 that may very well have been available as an UDFA. (And with Hill and the acquisition of Winston, their #240 QB may likely be headed for the practice squad at best.)
3. The Best Value Award goes too...
The table below shows the value each team got from their overall draft based on the draft position of players and their perceived value (based on NFL.com grades).
Comments:
- Snore Act - The old saying tells us to be hot or cold but not lukewarm. SF, IND and LVR hovered around the average mark - pretty lukewarm. But when you look at the players they got, there are some gems so perhaps it's more telling about the teams drafting above them.
- Nothing Up Their Sleeve - WAS pulled a magic act. They came in with picks that, in aggregate, would earn you an "F" grade in school (a 58%) but ended up getting huge value from their picks.
- I Couldn't Tell You - GB had great average picks (86.6%) but ended up near the bottom of the list in terms of perceived value. I'm sure the front office has a plan but based on these numbers, it's not very clear what that plan is. You know what that means...we have your Super Bowl winners!
- Beyond Your Understanding - There is one certainty: NE continues to not give a crap about what we think of their draft strategy. They don't draft for need, they don't draft for value. They let Belichik's dog draft. Guarantied, they play GB in the big game.
- The Value Players - The following teams were above average for value drafting yet left "needs" unfilled indicating they lean toward a BPA/Value approach:
- WAS: 1st in Value, 28th in Needs.
- ARI: 2nd in Value, 29th in Needs
- BUF: 3rd in Value, 30th in Needs
- Other Value over Needs teams: CHI, NO and SEA.
Final Thoughts
Despite the challenges, it was a great draft with lots of surprises. No doubt we will be discovering the impact of each pick on the league for years to come. Keep in mind, the rankings above are wholly subjective, that is, their basis is the NFL.com player rankings which is as arbitrary as any other ranking system. Regardless of the approach, and regardless of how great a team's draft is declared by the draftniks, what cannot be measured right now is how may difference makers were selected and will their coaching staff be able to adequately motivate to bring out their best. Looking forward to Draft 2021!
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