BOOM!
One of the books used in my Sports Management Worldwide (SMWW) NFL GM and Scouting course was "Take Your Eye off the Ball 2.0" by Pat Kirwan. For those of you who might not know Pat, his resume is impressive. Prior to embarking on a successful career as a football journalist, he worked in coaching and front office management at all levels, working his way up to Director of Player Administration for the NY Jets. His book is a vital teaching tool for anyone who scouts for a hobby or is looking for a career in this vocation.
Explosiveness
In his book, Pat gives the formula for desirable player explosiveness based on Combine numbers:
Bench Press Reps + Vertical Jump (Inches) +Broad Jump (Feet) > 70
This formula was designed to identify explosiveness for players in the defensive front seven and offensive linemen. His track record in using this method has been pretty successful in his experience.
Who rose to the occasion at the 2020 NFL Combine?
Defensive Front Seven
Notes
- Kenny Willekes - A big value favorite of mine. He had a great Senior Bowl to cap his highly decorated career as a Spartan, which he ended as all-time leader for Tackles for Loss. And when his 10.5 sacks from 2019 are adjusted, he is in the top 5 of draft eligbile players (article here). NFL.com has him graded 5.5 which means "Chance to make end of roster or practice squad" while USAToday's post Combine evaluation put him as a Day 3 prospect ciitng below average athleticism which contradicts Kirwan's Explosiveness metric. There is potentially high value in selecting Willekes Day 3.
- Khalene Hudson- I have to admit, I was not familiar with this name. Michigan's defense was all about speed last year and Hudson fit the bill. He plays hard, fast and smart. Very aggressive with eyes in the backfield. He lines up everywhere and can play the run, cover backs and tight ends in the passing game and he can tackle. Uche is getting a lot of recognition but so far in the evaluation process, Hudson might be a great value player to add.
- Jabari Zuniga - I mean, you just can't put one body on him and expect your play to succeed. So fast off the line and with quick hands to maintain space, his impact may be underestimated given lack of gaudy stats. He required double teams into the 2nd half so this high motor guy won't last long.
- Willie Gay, Jr - Blew up the combine and got on the radar. Had some non-injury issues staying on the field due to academics but once on he was a sideline to sideline backer. Watched his Louisville tape and he is solid at shedding blocks and getting to his spot faster than opponents.
- DaVon Hamilton - The fifth-year senior had a respectable 10.5 TFL on the interior DL in 2019 playing in the shadow the concensus #1 player in the draft. Sometimes he is double or triple teamed but other times you can contain him singled up so more film review will be necessary to see how he wins. One thing is for sure, as the only true DT with a top Explosiveness rating, it's a good bet he will get some looks.
- Alton Robinson - He had at the Senior Bowl and he spent a lot of time with the kids in the stands after the game (he seems conscious he needs to put his past infractions behind him). What remains to be seen is his ability to be a big impact player given his explosiveness. Looking forward to his evaluation.
- James Smith-Williams - This Wolfpacker is all set to work for IBM whenever his time on the gridiron is over. We will see if he ends up in a suit and tie or shoulder pads and a helmet in a couple of weeks. Very impressive high school academic record.
Offensive Line
Notes:
- John Simpson - All-American in 2019, this former HS state wrestling champ will likely be one of the top Guards selected during the NFL draft. He is seen a probable Day 2 selection.
- Wirfs and Ruiz were already in the conversation for being top selections at their respective positions of OT and C, so no surprises here.
Other Positions
Kirwan's Explosiveness metric was designed for Defensive Front Seven and Offensive Linemen but there were 4 other position players who showed they met or exceeded the 70 point threshold. Not saying the Explosiveness metric even matters for these players but it will be interesting to see.
I will be checking out Thomas and Olonilua as I have no opinion of either. Big fan of Vildor as a late round guy for value and Reagor will be targeted in this deep WR draft.
In Conclusion
It never hurts to examine other techniques for identifying talent - there are a thousand eligible prospects out there and most will be overlooked by the mainstream media. But each team has a 53 man roster and practice squad to fill and they will need draft selections as well as undrafted free agents to round out the team. Every selection does not have to be a starter but he has to be able to contribute in practice, as a sub and, when called on, as an injury replacement starter, all of which are essential for team success. I look forward to reviewing the careers of these players three years down the line to see how they have turned out.
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