Who's Screwed? Which Teams are in the Best Position to Improve in NFL Draft 2020?

The Most Wonderful Time of Year

It's Draft Day!  Just like we have the last two years, this space will take a look at which teams have the best shot to fill the most glaring holes in their rosters.  How will we do that? Glad you asked!

1. Determining Need - Easy enough!  Looking at the NFL.com analysis of top five needs for each team gives us our first set of data.  The needs are rated from "5" for most critical to "1" for least critical position need.
2. Determining the Value of Each Position - Also sourcing NFL.com, we use their player grades to determine the Average Value of each position. Since we are looking at the top 5 needs for 32 teams, our prospects to fill the team needs are the 160 highest graded players according to NFL.com.
3. Critical Positions - Even if a position group has a large percentage of highly rated players, if the demand outstrips the supply, your team might be out of luck.  So we note the number of players for each position group in the top 160 and compare to the number needed by the NFL teams (see Section 1, above) to find if there is a surplus or deficit for each position. 
4. Draft Picks - The number of picks a team has in the first 160 selections in relation to the number of Critical Positions of high need is the crux of this exercise.

With this information determined, we move on to the next steps.

Supply and Demand

• Offensive Tackles are the most plentiful in terms of filling a need with a top 160 player. There are 15 of them in our range (per NFL.com's ratings) and 5 teams have them as a top 5 need. 
• Interestingly, Interior Offensive Line  (on NFL.com, OL is considered G and C) is on the other side of the spectrum with only 15 Top 160 players to fill 29 holes. 
• ADP - Assumes the players' rankings based of NFL.com grades to set Average Draft Position for the player position groups.   Quarterbacks as a group have the best ADP of 52.1 while IOL show up as worst with ADP of 102.9. 
• NFL.com Grade represents the average position grade for the players in each position group and the number on the right of the column is the grade based on the distribution of scores assuming "100" for the best and 70 for the mean (just like school).   
• The prior two items are ranked in the last two columns with 1 being best and 11 as the bottom.

Deficit Position Table and Criticality

This table shows the supply/demand info based on the order of each team's 1st pick in the Draft and Criticality Rank.

What is Criticality?  Although displayed differently in the past, Criticality is a function of the factors discussed above:  Player value, team needs and the number and position of each team draft picks in reference to the critical nature of a position given supply/demand shortage or surplus.   The higher the percentage the better.  APP is the representation of the Deficit Rate at the position of need and the urgency of all team needs based on the NFL.com's "5" is most critical/ "1" is least critical" rating system.

By Criticality

Looking at this sorted by Criticality, we see:

• TB would have to have a hacking event in order to blow this draft.
• Their needs at Deficit Positions are the lowest priority - Quarterback is a "2" and Safety is a "1".  The other three positions of need are surplus positions, DL (+6.3%), RB (+18.2%) and OT (a whopping +220%).   And with 2 Deficit Position needs and 5 picks in the Top 160, it would take a lot of work for them to collapse. As such we have a criticality score of 1,534% above the average.
• Arizona on the other hand, is going to need a lot of luck.  Sure, they have 4 top 160 picks and 4 Deficit Position needs, but the deficits are among the highest positions and the one Surplus Position (DL) is the weakest at 6.3%.    Their average pick is 81.25, below average, which doesn't help matters.  Their Criticality is at the bottom end with -66%.

Based on the above, going into Day 1 of the Draft, TB, CLE, NYJ, NYG and LAC have strong advantages followed by MIA, LVR, IND and LAR as teams with a shot to make it work since they have positive Criticality. 

Everyone else with a negative number is starting at a disadvantage. But the good news is these numbers will fluctuate over the three day event. 

So, I will update these numbers each night so we can find out who's screwed going into each new day of the NFL Draft.

Come back for the updates and check out the above list sorted based on Draft order, below. WAS has the 2nd pick but EDGE is not a priority for them so do they just go with Young and hope the rest all falls into place? If they go Edge, their least urgent need, what will they do about OT?  Might they trade out of the spot to pick up more ammo to improve their 30th overall Criticality?

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The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html