Never to Late for Football!
For those of you familiar with this page, every year I track team needs vs. likely supply and demand for each position in the NFL Draft. This is not only fun but it reveals a lot about how each team approached the draft. In a nutshell, I give a numerical representation of how likely each team will achieve its draft goals based on filling needs. Assuming the top 5 needs for each team (according to NFL.com) our exercise looks at how each team pursues the Top 160 players (top 5 needs for each team times 32 teams) based on the player rankings (also from NFL.com). The higher the number, the more likely a team will cover all their needs with the most highly grade players. (I'm tired but for more on the methodology, check out the Day 1 article here.
I won't reveal what time it was when I finally finished the tables, but here they are!
- Nearly Foolproof - LAC despite having no Day 2 picks really cleaned up on Day 1, picking up their highest rated need (a 5 rating) and later their middle need (rated 3). Their remaining needs are low priority (a 1 and a 2) which are not horrible in terms of Position Deficit (which takes into the number of Top 160 players at that position who are still available and factors in their player grade to further adjust for value. Their 2nd highest priority is for OT of which there are more options than chasers at this point in the draft. Would not be surprised if they pick up anyone of the highest graded options in the Prince, Charles or Bartch.
- No one can Mail It In - Yeah, usually there would be teams here who have most of their boxes checked and may have a mid priority Position Deficit selection to make but none of those this year. Granted things are different this year but you always expect parity. Not this year.
- Gut Check Time - Someone has to draft the difference makers out there and if the cards fall right, any one of these teams could end up with a solid draft.
- At This Point, Start Drinking - Four teams in this group, PIT, WAS, NE and KC have not yet addressed their top priority position and, as you will see, the number and quality of players remaining has dwindled. Not good.
- Aight, Imma Head Out... In this category, we see teams that usually do not have enough draft capital to fill their draft needs in the first 160 picks. They have 1 pick up to that point, but have three and even four need positions. And they can be higher priority.
Completely Screwed - What if they league held a draft but you had no picks? These teams just flat out have no draft capital left in the top 160 picks and some teams are completely out of picks, typically in trades for veterans.- Tampa Bay was in FIRST position in the pre-draft analysis and now they are in the Completely Screwed category if they want to fill out their needs with Top 160 players...what happened? (Article for another time.)
Data Tables
The table below reflects the supply and demand via a "Surplus/-Shortage" number which is then used to calculate the Position Certainty which combines player group rankings with the supply/demand data. The 3 day trend is on the right.
The master table below breaks out each team's draft and provides my Day 3 forecast on how likely the team will hit their numbers.
In closing, I'm not saying players after the 160 pick are to be discounted. They are critical components of every NFL team. This exercise is more valuable in examining how teams run their drafts. Any questions, please leave a comment.
Prior NFL 2020 Draft Who's Screwed Articles - Check them out!
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The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here! Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?
Find out here! https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html
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