NFL Cornerback Analysis through Week 11

Cornerback updates through 11/25/20

Back again with an update on cornerback performance through Week 11 using the following metrics:

1. Attack Ratio: Total Targets/Total Snaps
2. Battle Ratio: Passes Defended/(Passes Defended + Completions Allowed)
3. Bleed Ratio: Total Reception Yards Allowed/Total Snaps
4. Burn Ratio: ([Total Interceptions +50% of Forced Fumbles]/Total Snaps) minus (Total Touchdowns/Total Snaps)

Previously, Attack included what is now broken out as the "Battle Ratio" so each represents an equal component in the overall final ranking.

These are all represented by Z score (the number of standard deviations from the mean).

Qualifying cut off was 416 snaps.

Green highlight equals at least 1 standard deviation above the mean.

Red highlight equals at least 1 standard deviation below the mean.

Player Performance

Attack Ratio - Who's Hot?

• Offensive Coordinators throw at Tre'Davious White only 5.6% of the snaps he's on the field. When you look at his better than average Battle and Bleed ratios, it's justified.
• Panther Troy Pride is skating because he is in the Top 10 in terms of Attack ratio but his other metrics indicate below average performance.  Will MIN be able to take advantage of this?

Attack Ratio - Who's Not?

• SEA corners seem to have had the 'Who's Not' spots on lockdown this season and Tre Flowers is doing his part by being targeted the most when he is on the field of all qualifying CBs.
• OCs seem to have it twisted by including Carlton Davis in the most targeted group.  Dude is nice in two of the other three metrics.  Let's see how Mahomes and Bienemy deal.

Battle Ratio - Who's Hot?

• Jaylon Johnson was tossed into the fire by CHI right away and he's showing he belongs with the highest Battle ratio through Week 11.  He and Fuller (#10) are a formidable duo.
• Another rookie, Trevon Diggs is on the boundary of above average but the Bleed is below average.  He is solid at defending passes, but when he give up a catch receivers pick up more yards than average.

Battle Ratio - Who's Not?

• Dikembe Mutumbo would not have a lot to say to Jourdan Lewis as his ability to disrupt receivers leaves a lot to be desired. 
• Although Jimmy Smith makes the list, OCs don't throw at him and he is definitely not giving up yards.  

Bleed Ratio - Who's Hot?

• The aforementioned Jimmy Smith tops the board giving up the fewest yards per snap.  Given the above average Attack ratio, OCs are not messing with JS.
• Jourdan Lewis, despite being picked on with his Attack and Battle ratios less than the mean, does not give up a lot of yards per snap.  

Bleed Ratio - Who's Not?

• Welcome to the NFL, Jeff Okudah.  He has the largest Yards/Snap number but he is at least staying above the mean in terms of Burn ratio.  Barely.  Let's see if the kid is going to soak it all in this year or if this is what we should expect going forward.
• Unfortunately neither Sean Murphy-Bunting nor Isaiah Oliver can deflect attention on their Bleed ratio to another superior metric...because they are less than the mean in all categories.
  

Burn Ratio - Who's Hot?

• Marlon Humphry is a work horse for BAL with a Burn ratio more than two standard deviations above the mean.  Only Xavien Howard comes close. 
• For some reason, OCs keep shelling Carlton Davis even though he doesn't give up TDs and breaks up passes all day.  Some people never learn.

Burn Ratio - Who's Not?

• As a Jets fan, this doesn't surprise me as Buster Skrine had an up and down stint in NY.
• He may not a household name (yet) like Jason McCourty but Charvarius Ward may soon be once OCs figure out why they are not throwing at him (and McCourty) more given their Burnability. 

Qualifier Rankings

Here are the qualifying corners ranked based on average of the four scores. 

• The top names are no surprise. Here they are with their Week 12 opponents:
•  Ryan (@CIN with backup QB Ryan Finley)
• White (vs LAC with rookie sensation Justin Herbert)
• Callahan (hosting Taysom Hill and NO)
• Bradberry (see Ryan above)
• Fuller (@GNB Sunday night)
• Here are the guys making up the bottom of the list:
• Oliver (hosting Derek Carr and LVR)
• Murphy-Bunting (hosting Machines and Co.)
• Skrine (see Fuller above)
• Gladney (hosting CAR with Teddy Bridgewater set to return)
• Flowers (visiting PHI Monday night)
• Okudah - played Thanksgiving with the result being Deshaun Watson lighting the Lions up for 318 yards and 4 TDs with no INTs. Oh, and the head coach getting fired.

Will post updated info from Week 12 later in the week.

*********************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

NCAA Wide Receiver Efficiency by ROI through 11-15-20

 All Conferences are in Full Swing

Here is the updated list of top efficiency wide receivers based on my Return on Investment metric compared to the popular Dominator Rating through November 15. 

ROI is based on Target Efficiency and Reception Efficiency.  The numbers below are based on Reception Efficiency (Excess Percentage of Team Yards generated compared to Percentage of Team Reception).  Target Efficiency (Percentage of Team Receptions generated compared to Percentage of Team Targets) is included in the final ROI report provided after Bowl Season.  Read more about ROI in my prior post here.

Dominator Rating

The cut off here was 1 Standard Deviation greater than the average of the 150 players with the most receiving yards through November 15, 2020. 

• TD% = Percent of teams total Receiving TDs 
• Dom = Dominator Rating
• ROI Z = Z score of player's Return on Investment measure.

• The average top Dominator Rating performer on the list above is 48th in terms of receiving yards. 
• The list gives a nice cross section of players out there who are gaining a lot of yards and scores for their teams. 

Looking at ROI table, below we see a lot of different names.

Wide Receiver Return on Investment 

'DNQ'= Did Not Qualify as he did not meet the minimum Reception threshold the prior period.

• Bo Melton of Rutgers is the top ROI performer.  
• He had 21% of his team's receptions and generated 43% of the team's receiving yards generating nearly 105% greater efficiency than the average receiver in the top 150 (in terms of receiving yards).
• His ROI Z is a ridiculous 3.65 standard deviations above average.  His Dom Z was also insane at 2.84.
• Along with Melton, here are receivers who made both lists:
• Romeo Doubs - Nevada
• Ty Fryfogle - Indiana (by way of Hufflepuff Community College) 
• Josh Palmer - Tennessee

We will see how who rises and who falls over the weekend.  See you next week for the updated rankings. 

*********************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

The Trouble with Sam: Week 8 NY Jets vs. KC Chiefs Video Commentary

The Jets lost yet again and in this video I look at some glaring points of concern for the long term role of Sam Darnold on this team.

*****************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

The Initial College Football Wide Receiver Efficiency Analysis for 2020

Five Years in the Making

Five years ago, I wondered.  Is there a better way to evaluate college football receivers given the spectrum of college schemes and systems?  That wondering led to action which led to Receiver Return on Investment (R.O.I.).  When I rolled onto the "DraftTwitter" scene, I found Dominator Rating was the main predicter of performance (and, to a lessor extent, Breakout Age").  So, armed with spreadsheets and curiosity, I started the turning over the numbers and, five years later, the method is still in development as it will  likely be until I get distracted by something else- let's be honest, in sports analytics, is a process ever "complete"?   I sure hope not.

Return on Investment

• Looking at raw statistics are the first screening process for evaluating wide receiver prospects based on production.
• Dominator Rating looks at a player's production (yards and touchdown) and tries to project success at the next level based on percentage "market share".
•  While it makes sense that players with a large market share could continue to produce at the next level, how do you find the "diamonds in the rough" players who are totally overlooked by market share?  How do you find the guys who didn't monopolize market share but got more out of each of their opportunities?
• Five years ago I started looking at the relationship between market share of targets, receptions and yards and ranking players based on their progressive improvement of these statistics.    In the end, I came up with Return on Investment (ROI) as a way to gauge how much extra production a receiver provides his team compared to the averages of the Top 150 receivers.

These are not first or second round guys (they are pretty obvious to grade) but under the radar players who many may not know by name when they get to the NFL but many from my list who were relative unknowns have a habit of staying on rosters.   

Past ROI Receivers

Here are some of the largely unheralded draft prospects screened out as solid ROI guys. 

• 2016 
• Rashard Higgins -  5th round pick has been a contributor in CLE since being drafted with career YPR of 13.6.
• 2017
• Josh Reynolds - 4th round pick has established himself as WR3 with LAR.
• Tim Patrick - Undrafted and waived by BAL and SF, he has drawn attention as a leading WR on a team deep at that position.  On 67% of offensive snaps he averaged 14.3 YPT over his last 3 seasons.
• Cooper Kupp - 3rd round pick out of Eastern Washington has earned a $47M extension by generating over 1,000 yards in 2019; he was on pace to generate 1,000 yards in 2018 and is on pace to do so in 2020.
• Kenny Golladay - 4th round pick came out of nowhere to be the WR1 at Northern Illinois, then emerged as WR1 for DET.  Back to back 1,000 yard seasons in 2018 and 2019.
• 2018
• Trent Sherfield - Undrafted pick up by ARI, he has been a solid contributor for the team with > 25% of offensive snaps and > 43% of special team snaps each of the past 2 seasons.
• Cedrick Wilson - 6th round pick from Boise State is on a team with stud WRs an still posts the teams highest Yards per Snap ratio of 1.35 through Week 7 (Lamb is 1.30, Cooper 1.19 and Gallup 0.80) so when he is on the field, the QB is looking his way.   If he and Lamb develop, it might make it easier to release Cooper and his huge contract in 2022.
• Tre'Quan Smith - 3rd round pick had done all the team has asked him to do coming in for no less than 43% of offensive snaps in his career, coming in at 82% this season to fill in for an injured Michael Thomas.
• 2019
• Scotty Miller - A 6th round pick from Bowling Green, Miller has found himself an integral part of the TB offense due to injury and he's making the best of it currently 32nd in receiving yards. 
• Olabisi Johnson - Obtained for what some consider throw away pick territory in the 7th round, the Colorado State paid for himself in 2019 alone providing the team flexibility by being on the field for 53% of offensive snaps which is an outstanding value for his draft position.  Although his WR3 spot was taken over by 1st round pick Jefferson, he continues to contribute (> 25% of Offensive and ST snaps).
• Travis Fulgham - The Old Dominion product went in the 6th round and has emerged as the leading receiver on PHI so far this year.  Who knew? ROI knew. 
• 2020
• Darnell Mooney - The 5th rounder out of Tulane was the number 2 in ROI for 2019 but it seems a scheme change threw his 2020 season out of whack. CHI's scouts must be a fan of this blog because who else had him on the radar after a down year in 2019?
• Most other rookies are still getting their feet wet but you can check out the full list here.

Kicking off the 2020 Season

I'm sure we are all ready for 2020 to move on but we have college football back as a welcome distraction.  Usually we have the first ROI table after the 3rd week of play but with all conferences at different point in the season now is as good a time as any. 

Shaded = Not Draft Eligible

The table above is sorted by ROI Z score with everyone on the list with ROI greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean. 

The DOM and Dom Z are related to the Dominator rating. 

Rec% and Yard% is the percentage of team receptions and yards, respectively.

Dominator Rating

The table above is sorted by Dominator Rating. Here you see more of the household names. The last column lists ROI efficiency so while David Bell is responsible for over 58% of Purdue's receiving production ROI indicates he is not making the most of his opportunities.  

By contrast, Josh Palmer and Romeo Doub's have high Dominator Ratings and ROI.

Check this spot for ongoing updatesnon a weekly basis.

*********************************************************************************

If you liked this post, check out the following:

Everyone wants the next hot head coach but how do college coaches  perform on the big stage once they get to the NFL?  Looking at how coaches with little to no experience in the pros have done over the last 30 years.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/going-from-college-to-pros-as-head.html

The NY Jets are crashing but can they go from worst to first in record time?  Here's how they might.  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/10/jet-reset.html

Looking at NFL QB risk/reward metrics.  Is your team's QB making the right decisions?  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/07/nfl-qb-riskreward-based-on-2019-numbers.html

Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment! 

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html