Week 13 Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule Update

Rounding the Turn

We are about 3/4th of the way to the NFL playoffs and entering this home stretch, the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.  

Here are the updated Power Rankings through 11/27/19 compared to the rankings from the major media outlets:

• BAL is the consensus #1 having traveled to LAR to ring the Rams up for another quality win. With the next two games against SF and BUF, Lamar and company could put themselves as the frontrunner for the Superbowl.

Bullish

• PIT is 6 places higher than the Experts have them.  I understand they have a disastrous QB situation and injuries are mounting but the team has held its own despite playing the 4th toughest schedule so far this year (please see table, below).  With their remaining schedule consisting of CLE, ARI, BUF, NYJ and BAL, I forecast a 3-2 record over the final stretch which would give them a decent shot at the AFC wild card berth not held by BUF.

Bearish

• IND is 5 spots lower than the Experts at #16. With one of the weakest schedules, IND is a middling 6-5.  I understand the injuries played a part but that is part of the game these days.  The coming game this Sunday will be telling as the team completes the in-conference series against the TEN team they barely beat in Week 2, but that was pre-Tannehill.  A win would put IND in playoff position although the forecast loss to TEN in Week 13 along with the automatic "L" vs NO might cause them issues.

Strength of Schedule

Color code:  Orange = 2 caption

• The aggregate average per game point differential for each team's opponents were calculated and weighted based on the most current results being more impactful and also the differentials in wins and losses were weighted in the aggregation based on a pro rata basis. 
• The Avg Wins and Avg Losses column shows the rank of each team's opponents in terms of points scored (1 being toughest 32 being easiest).
• The higher the number the tougher the schedule.
• CLE had the toughest go of it, with their schedule being set at 100%.  
• Based on the distribution of Diff scores, BUF's lowest score is 36.1%.
• Rate assigns a score out of 100% based on the Diff compared to the average score.
• Distribution to the Mean by Color Code:
• Blue is greater than 2 Standard Deviations below (weaker) than the mean.
• Green is between 1 and 2 SD's below the mean.
• Bold Yellow is within 1 SD below the mean
• Yellow is within 1 SD above the mean
• Orange is between 1 and 2 SDs above the mean.
• Red is greater than 2 SDs above the mean. 
• PIT is the only team in the top 5 toughest schedules with a winning record, despite the stadium being an infirmary.
• While DAL and IND are both in the category of top 5 softest schedules their inability to take advantage like the other teams (BUF, SF and NE) could indicate they may not be built to go far in the playoffs vs top tier competition.
• NYJ and JAC are each directly on either side of the mean and have.winning percentages below  .500; which would is reflective of their lack of consistency so far this year.

Check out the updated tables next week!!

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We're pickin' winners!  Check out the dual calc against the spread NFL selection method here!

  

Against the Spread NFL Picks Review and Look at the Upcoming Week.

Method #1 It Is...

Last week, I introduced a second set of results based on a different method to pick NFL games against the spread (see here). The first method has been up and down in terms of consistency typified by going 7-6 this past week. 

On the bright side, I did go 3-1 on best bets with DET giving street cred to WAS.

How did the alternative method do in its first week in publication...not too shabby...

Absolutely, perfect.

Let's see how we do this week:

NFL Week 12 Power Ranking and Strength of Schedule Analysis

Against the Grain

No matter what, I always seem to be going against the popular thought..the #1 overall is not the only huge departure from the Expert's consensus :

Notes:

• Teams are ranked by losses then Diff, which represents the average weighted net total points per game of their opponents the higher the number the tougher the competition.  The Point Differential or "Diff" table is below this section.
•  Diff gives more weight to the most recent results as well as W/L percentage.
• New #1 - Yet again, there is a new #1 with NE retaining the crown they held for most of the season.  
• Bullish - (1) DET  -For the first time this season, I am higher than the Experts on Detroit. They have been in a series of wars all season and have played teams with positive Diff. Having to play in the NFC North vs 2  consensus Top 7 teams plus KC, DAL, OAK and CHI they have not gotten blown out in any game.   (2) BUF - Disrespected the whole season by the Experts who plunged the Bills down the rankings during their off week, BUF has had the easiest schedule so far this year with DIFF of -6.1.  They have 3 winnable games and three toss ups to end the season so we will see if they can swipe a playoff spot in the AFC. 
• Bearish-  (1) LAC - This team has negative DIFF yet could still only muster a 4-7 record. Mercifully, they get their bye but play their last three games vs consensus top 13 teams; (2) DAL - I have them 5 spots below the Experts but they have had the weakest schedule of all the 4 loss teams.  They beat the teams they were supposed to (except the Jets) and lost to those who we felt were better.  They need to justify a top 10 spot by beating NE this weekend so this will be the game of the week for me.; and (3) BAL - The Experts' #1 overall is my #6 with the easiest schedule of the two loss teams, this game vs. LAR will  be the final litmus test to  offset that embarrassing loss to CLE and crown them #1.

Point Differential

• The aggregate average per game point differential for each team's opponents were calculated and weighted based on the most current results being more impactful and also the differentials in wins and losses were weighted in the aggregation based on a pro rata basis. 
• The Avg Wins and Avg Losses column shows the rank of each team's opponents in terms of points scored (1 being toughest 32 being easiest).
• The higher the number the tougher the schedule.
• CLE had the toughest go of it, with their schedule being set at 100%.  
• Based on the distribution of Diff scores, BUF's lowest score is 30.4%.
• Observations and Outliers 
• Of the top 10 toughest schedules, only KC has a winning record. 
• Of the bottom 10 with the easiest schedules, JAC and LAC could not muster a winning record through this part of the season. 
• The consensus Top 3 (BAL, NE and SF) all have schedules that are in the Top 5.

Check back next week for updates!

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Who are the most efficient receivers in NCAA?  Check out the next generation of NFL stars here...

Week 12 ATS NFL Picks!! - Updated!

Back from Slacking

Method 1

Had to take a forced vacation after the horrid performance streak.  Let's get back to it!  Green means best bet and, please, no wagering.

Updated!  Method II

Here is a second set of projections which takes into account a similar but different set of statistics that permit predicting the final score based on the way the season has played out thus far. Going to compare the two for the rest of the season to see which one is more accurate.

Interesting only one favorite and all selections are on the road. The only different pick is Dallas covering.  We shall see. 

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Coming up, the updated Power Rankings!!!

NCAA Wide Receiver ROI Updated Through 11/19/2019

Back in Action

Took a week off but back at it providing the full complement of NCAA updated ROI tables.  ROI stands for Return on Investment and it relates to wide receiver efficiency.  Want to know the nuts and bolts?  Check out this prior post.

Let's get into it for all Four NCAA divisions!

Additional Data Point - I've added Height (Ht) and Weight (Wt) to give us context for receiver size.  The current Top 10 NFL receivers by receiving yards are, on average, 6'2" (74 inches) and 209 lbs. If you divide the weight by the height, that is a ratio of 2.82.  Of course, there are outliers (John Brown has a ratio of 2.51 and Amari Cooper, 3.08) but to give an idea of if a guy is "big enough" this will help provide context.

Division III

The D3 playoffs begin next week (see the tournament bracket here) so the table above is for the regular season - any improvement will be especially noted since it will be coming against playoff caliber teams.  

The competition is pretty level in D3 with the top ROI receiver, Staehling, being above average by less then 200% and ahead of his nearest competitor by only 29.6%.  You want to see more dominating numbers from any player you consider from a non-FBS division.  

Division II

Although it is impossible for FBS, D2 has somehow gotten a playoff tourney going to join D3 as the miracle workers in NCAA.  Here is their tourney bracket.

Gooden has eclipsed the 200% mark we like to see and he and Cole have nice separation from the rest of the Top 10 group,  Both Cole and Bray have protypical NFL size so we will definitely take a closer look at them. 

Football Championship Subdivision (FCS)

Will miracles never cease?  FCS too has sold its soul for the secret to holding a real tournament to crown a champion.  Go figure. Before they start in two weeks they wrap up regular play this week. 

Edwards of Maine is leading in regular season ROI, but we would like to see a wider margin of separation at season's end this week.  What this tells me is the underclassmen were probably balling out so that crop should be good to watch next year. Wilkerson and Dereus both have NFL size.

Football Bowl Subdivision

Maybe some day FBS can figure out how to do a real tourney but, hey, that's crazy right? No Height/Weight info since they will do all that at the combine for real anyway. 

• Terry reclaims the top spot after a week off due to not meeting the minimum reception threshold.  His lead is pretty solid and gives a good illustration for the type of separation you look for in ROI leaders.
• Ceedee Lamb and Siaosi Mariner also rejoined the list having taken a break since their  last appearance. 

Touchdown King

Looking at touchdown production separate from ROI, we measure the number of receptions is takes to get on TD and then compare that to the similar production of that player's team (excluding his production).  So if a player gets a TD ever 2.5 receptions and his team scores one every 7.5 receptions, he's has a 200% efficiency compared to the rest of his team.  The qualifying criterion was based on team TD efficiency - in most cases, it was no more than 1 TD for every 17 receptions (if it were higher, the receiver's efficiency would be sky high due to his team really sucking at generating TDs.)  We can then gauge this efficiency to the average within each division and can then combine the rankings on an apples to apples basis. 

• The TD King is... Denzel Mims of Baylor who scores at rate of 502% faster than average across all 4 NCAA divisions.
• Shockingly, there are no other FBS candidates until you get to #6 overall with Trishton Jackson.   
• Bailey was the top FCS  player while Strachan was #1 in #2...no offense. 
• D3 missed out as no player presented a rate above 200 but  we reference Frank Roche's efforts above. 

That's it for this week, check out updated FBS and FCS ROI next week!!

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Which NFL Draft round has produced the best values for Edge rushers?  Check out the analysis here!

NFL Power Rankings for the Week 10 ending 11/11/19

Crazy Week

Upsets galore this week seemed to have impacted the "experts" rankings this week more than mine.  New feature this week is the power rankings are weighted so the most recent game has more weight in the final grade than the prior game, going back to Week 1.  More on that at the end of the season when I will give an overview of the calculation methods.

Here it is...

Thoughts

• Who's #1?  - Only Bleacher Report agreed that the Niners are the top team.  That was a hard fought game Monday night and even a Jimmy G doubter like me will admit they saw a lot of good things from their slinger in late Q4 and in OT.  The Defense just ran into the Russell Wilson buzzsaw.
• NE coming out of the bye was placed at #1 by two outlets which was an interesting response to the Niners' loss. 
• Baltimore was #1 on 2 of the 5 rankings used for comparisons...wow.  Imagine if they had not beaten the worst team in the league?  They would be, like, Team Zero, I guess.  I'm a huge fan of that team but I like them where I had them, unchanged at #6.
•  Cement Shoes - The usual suspects are at the bottom of the lake again with the Chargers joining the Sinking 8 (was 22 last week to 26 this week) given their loss to the Raiders.  The Experts didn't take much offense to the loss ranking LAC at #17 on average. 
• Bullish - Teams I had higher than the Experts include:
1. DET - I had them at 18 vs 24 for the Experts; ESPN was closest to me at 21.  Losing to CHI when the Bears run the ball and lean on that defense without your starting QB is nothing to be ashamed of but the Lions got notched down to 24 for it.  
2. BUF - 9 vs 14 with CBS agreeing with me.  I think I agree with most of the Experts in that the offense is a huge liability  but compared to the current 3 and 4 loss teams, this placing is not egregious.
3. CAR - 11 vs 15 with USA Today and SI at 13.  Losing to one of the top teams in GB shouldn't cause such hard feelings but the Panthers are Cam-less the rest of the way and that couldn't help in the minds of the Experts.  Kyle Allen has been good enough filling in at QB but the road ahead looks pretty rough (NO twice, SEA and IND) so perhaps the Experts are discounting them now. 
• Bearish- Maybe the Experts know something I don't...
1. LAC -  I have them at 26 vs. 19 for the Experts.  No less than 20 from B/R. They put up a good fight against the OAK last Thursday but they have been so erratic all year (beating GB and CHI but losing to DEN and TEN?!?!) they just can't be trusted.
2. DAL - 17 vs. 11; no lower than #13 for the Experts -  The team has one impressive win (over GB) and one impressive loss (against NYJ) so their Jekyll and Hyde routine didn't help when they lost to MIN a team with its own schizophrenia to deal with. 
3. BAL -  6 vs 2 (tied for 1st overall); with nothing lower than 3rd. Look, I love BAL (they seem to draft my favorite players) and I love Jackson (DraftTwitter had him as the # 17 player in the 2018 NFL Draft so I'm a believer) but I'm going to need a bit more than beating a team that routinely loses by 2 TDs.  With HOU, LAR and SF coming up, we will see what this team is all about. 
See you next week!


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Money matters!  What position are teams most willing to pay a premium to sign?  Check it out right here!

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Week 9 NCAA WIde Receiver Efficiency by Return on Investment for ALL 4 Divisions!

Two Thirds Through The Season

Let's talk about the top performing receivers in all NCAA division when it comes to efficiency based on Return on Investment.  Raw volume statistics don't always indicate the ability of a receiver to manufacture production on his own, so Return on Investment provides context.

Return on Investment or "ROI" seeks to uncover just what the name implies...if I invest a passing target in getting the ball to a receiver, what kind of output in terms of production am I going to get from him?  Starting with the basic concept of the Dominator Rating, the percentage of his team's receiving yards a player generates, ROI goes deeper,  comparing also the percentage of his team's receptions the receiver converts from his targets.  

The player's Return on Investment is compared to other players and, unlike DR, the players are tiered based on distribution using standard deviation; therefore, there is no fixed ranking scale.  The number is absolute in that it tells us exactly how much more production a player generated from his opportunities compared to the average receiver. 

As an efficiency measure,  the impact of high volume receivers is eliminated because ROI is based on rates.  However, to weed out one-dimensional deep threat players, only receivers with reception totals greater than 1 standard deviation below the mean are included (the "Sammy Coates rule").   

Unlike DR, this metric ignores touchdowns because there are many factors contributing to a score that may not be directly influenced by the receiver (play design, downfield blocks, blown coverages, etc).  Not that touchdowns are considered useless, as Reception to Touchdown ratio is also monitored in overall receiver evaluation.

ROI presented below under "Above Average" which shows how much more efficient a receiver is compared to the average Top 150 player in his division (in terms of receiving yards).

Get it?  Got it?  Good...

FBS

• "I'll Be Back"  - T2 (Tamorrion Terry) repeats as the top man with a ridiculous rate of 352% above average based on his 15.5% of team receptions for 27.0% of total team reception yards.  The only question I have is with the issues FSU's program has, would he declare for the draft given the lack of raw stats (he is 47th in reception yards in FBS)?  Take a look at his high school reel and you will see he has a solid foundation in controlling the defensive back off the line... a skill you need to understand coming into college. 
• Newjack City - The top new entrant to the list is not Scotty Washington, an ROI regular who took a hiatus from the list last week, but Boise State's John Hightower who clearly has the best haircut this week.
• The Unicorn - Omar Bayless of Arkansas State is number one in the nation in terms of receiving yards AND also resides at # 11 on our list for the second consecutive week.  This is impressive as top yard guys have a tough time remaining efficient.  

FCS

• Life just ain't fair... - We had a Top 20 for FBS but only 7 for FCS?  'Sup with that?  The reality is teams draft primarily from FBS so the players in the other divisions will have to be truly extraordinary to get a shot. Therefore, we have only players how are at least 100% more efficient than average in terms of ROI.  We've found them before (Cooper Kupp and Keelan Cole were both hyped up here pre-draft) and will continue to do so. 
• Domination - Chris Blair of Alcorn State (the alma mater of the late great Steve McNair) is a straight beast.  He is responsible for 14.8% of total team receptions yet 28.4% of total receiving yards which puts him a ridiculous 317.9% above average.  What's more, the next competitor is at 142.1%, so with his margin of separation, this 6'3" 200 lbs JUCO transfer warrants a closer look.  

Division II

• King Cole -  McKendree University Bearcat Matthew Cole was number one in our prior D2 list and stays on top.  He gets a quarter of the receptions for his team but brings in 41.8% of the receiving yards putting him at 239.4% above average. Here is some footage, which is rare for D2 guys. He also has a solid TD Rate (receptions required to get 1 TD) of 3.7 (average for D2 is 5.3).

Division III

• When the Going Gets Tufts - When I visited Tufts many moons ago, I didn't even know they had a football team.  But Frank Roche is getting it done with 24.2% of team receptions and  40.7% of team reception yards.  
• I Need a Hero - The top receivers in D III are don't show a lot of separation in terms of their ROI with only 72% separating Roche at #1 and Stewart at #6.  That's is an indication that there is not much differentiation between receivers at this level.  The margin for FBS over the #1 and #6 spot is over 200% which shows there is clear separation in talent. 

Touchdown Rate

Here is a quick look at the TD Rate leaders for all NCAA divisions:

TD King for this week remains Ceedee Lamb of Oklahoma. who has the largest differential between his rate than the #2 man.  The list above includes the players from each division with the lowest Receptions to Touchdowns rates.  

• 2nd - Is the rate for the second player in the division.
• Diff - Is the % difference between the top player and 2nd which is the criteria used for ranking.
• % to Team represents the players' rate compared to the rest of the team without him.  For example, Ceedee Lamb has a rate of 3.3 and his team has a rate of  9.2.
• It's worth noting Chris Blair not only has the highest ROI of draft eligible players in FCS, but also the best TD Rate.  

That's it for now.  Check out some of the names above you may have not hear of before and start getting ready for the 2020 NFL draft!

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Check out the latest update to the NFL Power Rankings through Week 10 here!