Against the Grain
No matter what, I always seem to be going against the popular thought..the #1 overall is not the only huge departure from the Expert's consensus :
Notes:
- Teams are ranked by losses then Diff, which represents the average weighted net total points per game of their opponents the higher the number the tougher the competition. The Point Differential or "Diff" table is below this section.
- Diff gives more weight to the most recent results as well as W/L percentage.
- New #1 - Yet again, there is a new #1 with NE retaining the crown they held for most of the season.
- Bullish - (1) DET -For the first time this season, I am higher than the Experts on Detroit. They have been in a series of wars all season and have played teams with positive Diff. Having to play in the NFC North vs 2 consensus Top 7 teams plus KC, DAL, OAK and CHI they have not gotten blown out in any game. (2) BUF - Disrespected the whole season by the Experts who plunged the Bills down the rankings during their off week, BUF has had the easiest schedule so far this year with DIFF of -6.1. They have 3 winnable games and three toss ups to end the season so we will see if they can swipe a playoff spot in the AFC.
- Bearish- (1) LAC - This team has negative DIFF yet could still only muster a 4-7 record. Mercifully, they get their bye but play their last three games vs consensus top 13 teams; (2) DAL - I have them 5 spots below the Experts but they have had the weakest schedule of all the 4 loss teams. They beat the teams they were supposed to (except the Jets) and lost to those who we felt were better. They need to justify a top 10 spot by beating NE this weekend so this will be the game of the week for me.; and (3) BAL - The Experts' #1 overall is my #6 with the easiest schedule of the two loss teams, this game vs. LAR will be the final litmus test to offset that embarrassing loss to CLE and crown them #1.
Point Differential
- The aggregate average per game point differential for each team's opponents were calculated and weighted based on the most current results being more impactful and also the differentials in wins and losses were weighted in the aggregation based on a pro rata basis.
- The Avg Wins and Avg Losses column shows the rank of each team's opponents in terms of points scored (1 being toughest 32 being easiest).
- The higher the number the tougher the schedule.
- CLE had the toughest go of it, with their schedule being set at 100%.
- Based on the distribution of Diff scores, BUF's lowest score is 30.4%.
- Observations and Outliers
- Of the top 10 toughest schedules, only KC has a winning record.
- Of the bottom 10 with the easiest schedules, JAC and LAC could not muster a winning record through this part of the season.
- The consensus Top 3 (BAL, NE and SF) all have schedules that are in the Top 5.
Check back next week for updates!
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