Tackles for a Loss - It's a Question of Who's Second...
In A Few Words
Based on the 11/27/19 statistics, the top defensive players in FBS in terms of adjusted Tackle for a Loss are as follows:
- Standard: The NCAA total Tackles for a Loss of 1x solo tackles plus 0.5x assisted tackles.
- TFL SoS: Grade assigned for aggregate Plays/TFL Allowed rate for opponents with 100% for the least TFL allowed (Army) down to 56.2% (Akron).
- Adjusted (Adj): Standard TFL adjusted for TFL SoS, giving equal weight to solo and assist TFL and eliminating TFL and plays vs non-FBS opponents.
- TFL Adjusted: Adj divided by adjusted number of defensive plays (excludes non-FBS opponents).
- TFL Score: Scaled grade based on the distribution of TFL Adjusted scores to average using 100% for #1 overall.
- Abv Avg:: Percentage above (or below) average.
- Std vs. Adj: Represents the number of places the Adj rating is above (positive) or below (negative) the standard.
Notes:
- Return of the Mack - Chase Young of THE Ohio State University is no surprise at on an adjusted basis. He was number 2 based on standard TFL before Strength of Schedule and FCS games were factored in.
- Fluffy Beaver.- Hamilcar Rashed Jr. is listed on the NCAA official site as having the most total TFL with 22.5 but after eliminating 3 TFL vs. FCS Cal Poly and considering his team faced the 8th most defensive plays for any of the top 32 TFL leaders, he ended up 3rd overall. His SoS was 3rd most difficult in terms of not allowing TFL, so that helped.
- Bullish - These adjusted scores were the most improved over the standard TFL/Game ranks for the Draft Eligible players (maintaining at least above average scores):
- Malik Harrison - OSU improved 17 to #12 (from #29)
- Antjuan Simmons - Michigan State up 17 to #14 (from #32)
- Shaq Quarterman - The U improved 10 up to #9 (from #19)
- The biggest riser overall was Jacob Springer of Navy (up 21 to #11 from 32 overall) who is a Junior and will serve his commitment after graduating so we may not see him in an NFL uniform for a while (but given what he's going to give us, that's not really important).
- Sean Adesanya of Central Michigan was the highest rising DL who jumped 12 spots to 17 (from #29).
- Bearish - Not say these players are not top quality, but they saw declines in their places after adjusting their stats.
- Poor Dom Peterson of Nevada barely made the standard list with 12.5 TFL but losing the 2 he laid down on Weber State was too much to overcome. He finished last in the analysis with a TFL rate of -78.3% below average.
- Quincy Roche of Temple fell 16 places to #29 (from 13 based on standard TFL) because it took him the largest number of plays to reach his 16 total TFL and their SoS was 21 overall.
- Max Richardson of BC fell 15 to #31 (from #16) after excluding the 2.5 TFL he rung up on FCS Richmond and considering his defense faced the 6th easiest schedule to generate TFL against (for teams on the survey).
- Garret Wallow of TCU also dropped 15 spots to #26 (compared to 11 on the standard scale) after we threw out the 3.5 TFL he put up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. He got a bit of a boost with TCU's 5th toughest TFL schedule.
- Carlton Martial of Troy fell from #6 down 12 spots all the way to #18, also falling from the Above Average to the Below Average (in terms of standard deviation) for eliminating his 2 TFL vs the Fighting Camels of Campbell University...I'm serious...
Conclusion
Obviously every Draft Eligible player on this list will get a thorough film review to understand what each player does well to succeed. Chase Young is clearly the top option here but the ranking for the rest of the top players, regardless of them being on this list or not, will be interesting to compile.
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