Week 10 NFL Power Ranking and Weekly Picks

Week 10 Power Rating

Below is the table outlining my Power Rankings vs. the Experts (their individual and average team rankings are provided below).  My power ranking tries to stay primarily focused on the historical data without much qualitative input from me.

Bullish

• BUF was off last week so the numbers did not suggest a huge drop off that would be expected if the teams who lost to the Bills had performed far worse than expected.  In reality, they performed about at par and the Dolphins even won a game which helped them move up a spot.  The experts were not as forgiving, ranking them at 12 overall, on average.
• The experts are down on CAR likely because of the news Cam is on IR.  The performance by backup QB Kyle Allen has been enough to keep the team at 5-3 while playing teams with a positive aggregate PF/PA ratio.
• ARI has fought through a pretty tough schedule to hang in at 3-5-1 and it could be argued they are a bit over valued at #19, but compared to the performance of teams in their level of the standings, the Cards are in better shape.

Bearish

• DAL, MIN, PHI and LAC are all evaluated higher by the experts; all of them had opponents with negative aggregate PF/PA ratios.
• DAL played WAS, MIA, NYG twice and, even thought they lost to them, NYJ who have contributed to the Cowboys playing teams that usually lose by 6.6 points on average (and that includes the PF/PA of their tougher opponents.  

 

Against the Spread Picks 

After a horrible week going 7 - 6 starting last Halloween (figures), trying to get back on top.

Green selections are best bets. 

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It's already wrong in terms of which team will go undefeated but check out my NFL 2nd half of the season forecast here!